Neil Shearing

Group Chief Economist, Capital Economics

[Neil Shearing @ShearingNeil]

@EdConwaySky Seems that way - and the gilt market likes it...

[Policy Exchange @Policy_Exchange]

“A key question is whether that US block holds?” “America first really does in that situation become America last.”

@ShearingNeil speaks at Policy Exchange yesterday on geopolitics and the splintering of the Global Economy 👇

[Gerard Baker @gerardtbaker]

On this episode of the #FreeExpressionPodcast, I spoke with @ShearingNeil, Group Chief Economist of Capital Economics and author of “The Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy.”
https://t.co/TEJhZVgFmH

[Morning Call @CNBCMorningCall]

On today's show with @FrankCNBC:

Markets: Scott Ladner
Travel: Stephen Grambling
S&P 500: @ShearingNeil
Oil: Rebecca Babin
Trading: @TiffanyInvests

Reporting: @Silvia_Amaro, @berthacoombs, @Hugh_Son, and @sherman4949

See you at 5am ET on @CNBC!

[Neil Shearing @ShearingNeil]

In his latest column Martin Wolf draws on our work on US-China fracturing. Analysis and data here - message me if you want access:

https://t.co/f0CJ7zvBqG

[Financial Times @FT]

The US retains the economic advantage in its rivalry with China https://t.co/8YKMfIOMGx

[Neil Shearing @ShearingNeil]

Yup

[BSurveillance @bsurveillance]

"Certainly, I think we'll be entering 2024 on a substantially weaker footing." - Neil Shearing, Chief Economist at Capital Economics Group https://t.co/YKdZ79vhvF

[Neil Shearing @ShearingNeil]

From our US rapid on September CPI. Rise in core is all about shelter - which we know is about to fall...
https://t.co/zkJKoVQ8tE

[Neil Shearing @ShearingNeil]

Full report here:

https://t.co/KVLS8o75lN

[Bloomberg Economics @economics]

Artificial intelligence will boost economic growth in the US and other advanced countries more than in China and emerging nations https://t.co/Yho36or5ng

[Neil Shearing @ShearingNeil]

Yep. Best estimate is that half the effects of tightening have yet to be felt.

[BSurveillance @bsurveillance]

Neil Shearing of Capital Economics says we have yet to see the full effects of the previous tightening from central banks https://t.co/sK2wxiAsDp

[Neil Shearing @ShearingNeil]

Pleasure as always to chat to @mattmiller1973, @GinaMartinAdams and @dsassower.

Tl;dr: China matters but not for the reasons you think, and don't expect fireworks from Powell tomorrow. (Cue fireworks.)

[BSurveillance @bsurveillance]

"Jackson Hole, if you're a bond investor, is kind of the main event this week." - Neil Shearing, Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics https://t.co/BXRqqGAsLk

[Neil Shearing @ShearingNeil]

Yup

[Mike Bird @Birdyword]

The greedflation thesis “muddles inflation’s symptoms with its cause”, according to Neil Shearing of Capital Economics. Wages have tended to play catch-up with prices, not vice versa. https://t.co/1qXS1Cgs0Y

[Neil Shearing @ShearingNeil]

Finally: we've been asking clients for their views on AI. Results so far:
- Large majority think AI will be a genuinely transformative technology.
- 50/50 split as to whether it’s a US-only story.
- Large majority think a bubble is forming around AI

Will continue to update...

[Neil Shearing @ShearingNeil]

📢Annoucning our annual Spotlight project...

This year we'll be tackling AI and the economic and market implications. I know, I know - not another report on AI. But what's missing on the macro front is a comprehensive framework to pull everything together.

[Neil Shearing @ShearingNeil]

My note from this week sets out the key issues: https://t.co/OyfNkkJquu

[Neil Shearing @ShearingNeil]

The debate around "Greedflation" muddles the distributional consequences of inflation with its underlying causes. Profit margins haven't expanded - but firms have been able to pass on higher costs. Which reflects the relative strength of demand. More here: https://t.co/UVGxDjKjkj

[Neil Shearing @ShearingNeil]

Key chart from our latest round of chart packs:

[Neil Shearing @ShearingNeil]

China's demographic problem in one chart