Sheehan Finance

Not investment advice DYOR.

[Sheehan Finance @SheehanFinance]

@boardyai @andrewdsouza Boardy Pro will certainly help the capital formation process across venture, growth, and special situations. @boardyai

[Sheehan Finance @SheehanFinance]

@ParrotCapital Crocodile tears from Nutlick

[Sheehan Finance @SheehanFinance]

@middyishappy @Dom_2k Nutlick

[Sheehan Finance @SheehanFinance]

@jbillinson Nutlick

[Sheehan Finance @SheehanFinance]

@jaequeln @MarkleResists @mattvanswol 💯

[Sheehan Finance @SheehanFinance]

@JeffreySmart_M @KobeissiLetter Which means “sell when we have to” even if it’s $2.5M

[Sheehan Finance @SheehanFinance]

@SnapshotKyle @CClarkReport @kenswift @TheBenDanielPod @CaitlinClark22 @cdssportspod @KeepTheVision_ CC needs to go to Europe and let the @WNBA fail miserably again.

[Sheehan Finance @SheehanFinance]

@draxgrootx36246 @WallStreetMav

[Julian Klymochko @JulianKlymochko]

Starting in 2008, former professional gambler and EchoStar co-founder Charlie Ergen went all-in on wireless spectrum, betting that scarce wireless licenses would become more valuable over time and that he could either build a viable wireless business or force a strategic buyer to pay up in the future.

For years, his hand looked shaky as he faced massive risks including crushing debt, FCC buildout deadlines, repeated missed milestones, and near-bankruptcy pressure. Charlie didn't falter with the bluff of a lifetime.

Finally, after 18 years, the river card came through as $SATS monetized the spectrum in massive deals with AT&T and SpaceX, turning a long, painful, and highly leveraged $30 billion bet into a payoff north of $40 billion.

His persistence and self-belief is truly legendary.

[Sheehan Finance @SheehanFinance]

@KobeissiLetter Thankful we are addressing the entitlement spending, and the egregious fraud, waste, and abuse.

[Sheehan Finance @SheehanFinance]

@Rightanglenews Letters made of gold?

[Sheehan Finance @SheehanFinance]

@JulianKlymochko Buyer's remorse?

[Brett Caughran @FundamentEdge]

A big pivot from Ken Griffin on AI:

“Number one is, in the last few months, there has been a step change in the productivity of the AI toolkit. It is profoundly more powerful than it was just nine months ago.

And for us at Citadel, that has allowed us to unleash a much broader array of use cases for AI. And it has been really interesting to watch, to be blunt, work that we would usually do with people with masters and PhDs in finance over the course of weeks or months being done by AI agents over the course of hours or days.

These are not these are not mid-tier white collar jobs. These are like extraordinarily high skilled jobs being, I'm going to pick a word, automated by agentic AI. And I gotta tell you, I went home one Friday actually fairly depressed by this because you could just see how this was going to have such a dramatic impact on society.

When you witness it in your own four walls, when you see work that used to be man years of work being done in days or weeks, it's like, wow, like that's the first time I've seen real impact in our four walls.”

This echoes my own experience with agents and the conversations I am having with students, friends & clients. The toolkit has dramatically transformed and it feels like in finance, for the first time, AI is real.

[Sheehan Finance @SheehanFinance]

@LuckyPenguin10 Excellent analysis! Enron then hedge fund commodities trader. He's got it all covered: bail reform, "disinformation" oversight (on @Meta board) IE censorship,

[junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest]

$2.25T in IG supply this year. $400B AI-related. $3T of hyperscaler capex cumulative thru 2028.

The intuitive case writes itself: new IG supply overwhelms demand, IG spreads widen, HY follows.

So I went back and looked at the 90s capex/credit cycle and the conclusion wasn't what I expected.

The Fed's 1999 report listed three drivers of spread widening. Supply wasn't one of them.

https://t.co/orDk3is72x

[Sheehan Finance @SheehanFinance]

@Standup4whatsrt @sandibachom He screwed families. He hides beneath such headlines.

[Sheehan Finance @SheehanFinance]

@ToniGering @sandibachom He’s terrible. He screwed families. And he screws employees. Do some research.

[Sheehan Finance @SheehanFinance]

@business Mooch still like a jilted boyfriend. Still butthurt 45/47 kicked him out after 11 days. Trying to stay relevant, but no one cares.

[Sheehan Finance @SheehanFinance]

Silly take by JPMg strategists suggesting #PrivateCredit is "not a problem."

* Is #PrivateCredit a systemic risk a la GFC? NO. 1) Limited contagion/counterparty risk 2) PC providers have long-term locked-up funding - no forced selling.
* Are recent developments a problem for PC's growth as an asset class? YES
* Is it terrible for retail investors who can't get out? YES Try to tell them it's not problematic.

1) Retail investors are gone: PIMCO CIO Daniel Ivascyn warned returns for PC will fall to 4-5%. They checked in, but they can never leave. At least 5 premier firms have capped withdrawals over the past 2 months. Retail inflows were expected to be a massive pool of capital for PC providers. No more. As I've said many times, PC is a horrible Asset Liability mismatch.
2) More losses coming: Last week, @thomabravo walked away from Medallia, taking a $5.1B equity loss.
3) Concerns persist over risks in software/AI sectors and high/increasing payment-in-kind (#PIK) interest.
4) All the inherent problems in PC - transparency, no liquidity, and fake valuations - are not being addressed anytime soon.
5) Bad underwriting: #Default rate up to 5.7%. Many PC issuers are in non-accrual -> essentially a precursor to default IE Medalia.

Meanwhile, public bond funds attracted $260B inflows in Q1. With liquidity. Seems extremely prudent.

$1.8T in PC. That's meaningful. Soaring government deficits. Geopolitical risk building. Markets will force the reckoning - starting with PC and direct lending.
#Distressed