Shikha Aggarwal | शिखा अग्रवाल

Consultant,China Division @MEAIndia| @MoFA_Taiwan Fellow 20'| Fmr. VF @nccu1927| CCP Elite Politics; Party Institutions & Security Bureaucracy |會說中文

[Shikha Aggarwal | शिखा अग्रवाल @ShikhaaAggarwal]

As Zhang Youxia gets purged, here's reupping my piece from November in which I had laid down that the purges within the PLA were not a factional rift but rather a game of chickens b/w Zhang and Xi Jinping.

[Shikha Aggarwal | शिखा अग्रवाल @ShikhaaAggarwal]

In @htTweets, I argue that the purges within the PLA are more driven by differences in the visions of Zhang Youxia and Xi Jinping than a purported factional rift within the PLA. This poses a challenge to Xi as the Party approaches the 21st Party Congress https://t.co/bYJKvTeOFZ

[Shikha Aggarwal | शिखा अग्रवाल @ShikhaaAggarwal]

Could be....In fact, I had the same analysis when the Central Party School thing was announced.....but then, his career graph and his proximity to Xi make it difficult to dismiss him so easily :). In his role at the General Office, he appears to be in the league of Ding Xuexiang than a Li Zhanshu....you think, he is going to retire?

[Shikha Aggarwal | शिखा अग्रवाल @ShikhaaAggarwal]

Expected outcomes of the Modi-Xi bilateral:
a) The Informal Summit mechanism that was disturbed after Galwan likely to be restored. Cai Qi accompayning Xi further reinforces this possibility. Cai also met PM Modi in Tianjin during the SCO summit.
b) While Wang Yi continues to be the SR (at least till the 21st Party Congress), Cai is emerging as Xi's point man to deal with India.
c) No major breakthrough on border talks a.k.a any clarity on 'Early and Substantial Harvest (ESH)' or restoration of pre- Galwan status quo ante. The SR's have designated the Expert Group ( to be constituted) to draw the ToR for the ESH and that's where it remains.
d) PM would likely mention the border issue in his statement in the same manner that he did during Xi's 2014 India visit.
e) Point to remember : Xi Jinping cannot afford to make major pronouncements on LAC before the 21st Party Congress. For any substantial progress on the border, we need to wait till then.

[People's Daily, China @PDChina]

Xi leaves for 18th BRICS Summit in India

Chinese President Xi Jinping left Beijing on Saturday for the 18th BRICS Summit in New Delhi at the invitation of Prime Minister of the Republic of India Narendra Modi.

Xi's entourage includes Cai Qi, a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and director of the General Office of the CPC Central Committee, and Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Chinese foreign minister.

[Shikha Aggarwal | शिखा अग्रवाल @ShikhaaAggarwal]

Thanks for your comment 🙂. True, Cai met several leaders in Tianjin. In my humble view, among all his roles, it's the head of the General Office that gives him way more power than his more visible designation as the number 5 in PBSC. My point is: something seems afoot when we put that meeting and him accompayning Xi for this visit. Again, Director, General Office have accompanied Chinese Presidents on foreign visits earlier as well. But the timing and nature of the visit makes things a bit intriguing.

Totally with you on the second point. However, I don't think he'll play any role within the SR mechanism. 'Point of contact' as put is the most appropriate terminology.

[Aadi Achint 🇮🇳 @AadiAchint]

Well said... CBMs seem to be the main focus!!

[Shikha Aggarwal | शिखा अग्रवाल @ShikhaaAggarwal]

within the PLA (for the time being).

b) However, it is noteworthy that Zhang Youxia has still NOT been removed from his seat at the Party CMC. This signals that there's resistance to actions being taken against him within the system.

c) The real test will be if Xi is able to pull off the upcoming India visit without any PLA incursions inside Indian territories.

[Shikha Aggarwal | शिखा अग्रवाल @ShikhaaAggarwal]

On the recent purges in the PLA:
a) Zhao Zongji's removal is a positive development vis-a-vis India. In my (humble) opinion, the next to fall in this saga will be Xu Qiling. This would in effect mean that Xi has scored over the 'entrenched and established' anti-India voices +

[Shikha Aggarwal | शिखा अग्रवाल @ShikhaaAggarwal]

off the upcoming India visit without any PLA incursions into Indian territories.

[Shikha Aggarwal | शिखा अग्रवाल @ShikhaaAggarwal]

within the PLA (for the time being).

b) However, it is noteworthy that Zhang Youxia has still NOT been removed from his seat at the Party CMC. This signals that there's resistance to actions being taken against him within the system.

c) The real test will be if Xi is able to pull

[pp shukla @ppshukla]

Finally! I've tricked my way to posting all four parts - my affectionate thanks to @HindolSengupta, @ShikhaaAggarwal, and @aniltrigunayat for their kind words; they know the high regard I hold them in.

[HindolSengupta @HindolSengupta]

The person who predicted these developments is @ppshukla - prophetic. (Things are getting more and more interesting every day.)

[Shikha Aggarwal | शिखा अग्रवाल @ShikhaaAggarwal]

@HindolSengupta @ppshukla Also, @HindolSengupta don't know if you already know this- no one can even try and parse Joint Statements better than him. He can quote verbatim from a statement issued in 1958 and compare it with the 2026 one ( also mentally quoting from it while you are just Googling the two!)

[Shikha Aggarwal | शिखा अग्रवाल @ShikhaaAggarwal]

@HindolSengupta @ppshukla Have been a student of Sir ( Amb. Shukla) since '14.NOBODY reads China better than him! But for him, I would have never taken Chinese Elite Politics as my field of research. An intellectual par excellence and a beautiful person.

[Kashmiri Hindu @BattaKashmiri]

I would rate this lady higher than the arrogant foreign origin scornful lady.

What about you ?

[Abhijit Majumder @abhijitmajumder]

Zakir Khan puts white racism and India’s rise and assertiveness in context in this terrific conversation with Max Amini.
Do watch.

[Neeraj Ghaywan @ghaywan]

The millennial in me was happy to direct this commercial for @amazonmusic India!

Music unites our country! More so when it is Antakshari played across India.

[Shubham Mishra @brahma_4u]

In 1963, India told the man who'd go on to found Intel to make 94% fewer chips than he asked for.

Robert Noyce flew to Delhi to put Fairchild's first offshore plant in India. He wanted 10 million transistors a year.

The DGTD capped him at 600,000, asked him to keep equity under 50% and take a royalty ceiling, then sent him off. He set up in Hong Kong in 1965 at a dollar a day, then Korea. Five years later he co-founded Intel.

We didn't lose semiconductors in the 2020s.

We lost them in a Delhi meeting room in 1963, to a man who thought a production ceiling was industrial policy.

Sixty years and a PLI scheme later, we're still trying to buy back a seat we were once offered for free.

[Pooja Shali @PoojaShali]

"My first husband stripped me naked and threw me and my daughters out of the house. Neighbours wrapped me in a quilt and my parents took us away. As I hold this gold medal in Glasgow, my message to every woman in India is to fight back against abuse."

https://t.co/LDRr8meTC1