If you trade trend, you'll get a bunch of false starts
If you trade momentum, you'll often buy the top/sell the bottom
If you trade mean reversion, you'll periodically get carried out by an outsized move
And so on for basically every trading system
This is the cost of doing business that's embedded into every market effect you're monetising
Your job is to understand it and manage it
If you try to avoid it entirely you simply won't get paid
There's no perfect system, it's all about managing trade-offs
Go take a look at your setups/playbook or wherever your trading system lives and map its assumptions and failure cases
The stuff you wanna avoid:
1. Mutating your system because the risk feels uncomfy so you get the worst of both worlds e.g. not holding for long trends/outsized moves but still eating the false starts when you're wrong (all the downside, no balls for the upside)
2. Not knowing what the trade-offs are and sizing like a dickhead so when you're wrong it wipes out all your gains e.g. penny collecting on mean reversion with increasing size and then getting fully wiped on the outsized move
Look at how much US AI supercomputer cluster capacity was planned for/installed in UAE and Saudi
Have not seen any strategists discuss yet what this means for US v. China AI race
Seems important. Thoughts?
Blue Owl Capital imposed permanent withdrawal limits on a retail debt fund, but Laura Cooper from Nuveen dismissed concerns and said private credit is solidifying its role as a ‘core institutional portfolio holding’
I have decided diversification is a fools errand and now will be allocated as follows:
50% Copper Miners
50% Korea
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
This is absolutely insane:
This morning, the US government was selling Platinum coins on the US Mint website for $2,345/oz.
At 6:30 AM ET, Platinum prices surged above $2,345/oz, rising to a high of $2,470/oz by 10:15 AM ET.
Yet, the US continued selling these coins for $2,345, or ~5% below the market price.
As traders realized, they began buying these coins which could then be sold for ~5% more.
This likely cost the US millions of dollars, depending on how many coins were sold before the US Mint realized.
The precious metals rally has entered US government "arbitrage" mode.
Not even the US Mint saw this coming.
Many traders make a mistake and then compound it in frustration by suddenly taking a shit trade, or betting way too big, etc.
And so this is a wonderful time to remind you that if you have a flat tyre, you don’t get out of the car and slash the other three like a cunt. Cheers.