Shubham Kumar - Macro & Markets

Macro & Markets | No buy-sell recommendation

[Shubham Kumar - Macro & Markets @ShubhamKumar_IA]

I have a wild hypothesis:

This war will simmer for years!
Middle east will first see cautious capital inflow and subsequent capital flight

The rivalries run too deep. Iran has taken a lot of beating. They wont let their neighbours prosper

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The Israeli Air Force says it conducted strikes in western and central Iran.

[Intrinsic Compounding @soicfinance]

Wuxi Apptech placed on Chinese Military List by Pentagon.

Positive for Indian CDMOs who can do integrated CRDMO manufacturing

https://t.co/Yh6l0HWmXy

[Shubham Kumar - Macro & Markets @ShubhamKumar_IA]

@REDBOXINDIA They dont hold any cards

[Shubham Kumar - Macro & Markets @ShubhamKumar_IA]

@shubham1492 Agree with especially the specialty pharma part. As the depth of semiconductor & renewable energy supply chain improves in India, new frontiers will open

Semiconductor manufacturing uses hundreds of high grade chemicals

[VaR @Vedansh_Ag]

There is no such thing as an "HVDC transformer" it doesn't exist.

Transformers work on the principle of electromagnetic induction, which requires alternating current to create the changing magnetic field needed to induce a voltage in the secondary coil.

There is no such concept as a DC transformer.

The transformers installed at HVDC sites are high voltage AC transformers also called converter transformers.

[Shubham Kumar - Macro & Markets @ShubhamKumar_IA]

This will offset slowdown in freight wagon orders

- With 10,000 Cr+ order book, company is set to grow massively from here

[Shubham Kumar - Macro & Markets @ShubhamKumar_IA]

Titagarh Rail Systems:

Company has seamlessly transitioned from Freight wagons to a formidable passenger rail coach manufacturer

- Passenger coaches have higher EBITDA%
- Company has guided for 4x passenger coach capacity in next 2 yrs

[Shubham Kumar - Macro & Markets @ShubhamKumar_IA]

Rajesh Exports type scams happen frequently in India because:

Repercussions of committing a financial fraud are a few lacs of fine versus the damage cause to retail investors!

[Shubham Kumar - Macro & Markets @ShubhamKumar_IA]

@jcrajan00 @ihailmyindia You can’t produce a baby in 1 month

[Shubham Kumar - Macro & Markets @ShubhamKumar_IA]

@REDBOXINDIA lol. I want what they are smoking

[Shubham Kumar - Macro & Markets @ShubhamKumar_IA]

Tried analyzing Jeena Sikho for my youtube channel

After 2 hrs of reading, I abandoned the idea of making a video. I would've ended up bashing it too badly

[Shubham Kumar - Macro & Markets @ShubhamKumar_IA]

Titan uploaded a 378 pages investor presentation yesterday with a lot of AI generated images

The presentation could've been a Memo

[Shubham Kumar - Macro & Markets @ShubhamKumar_IA]

EPC companies are not to be held forever!

[Shubham Kumar - Macro & Markets @ShubhamKumar_IA]

Steel Capex: India plans to increase steel capacity by 50% by 2031

This means more capacity buildout & consumption of Industrial goods

Refractories sit at the heart of Steel manufacturing

I have compared the 3 listed players in my video

https://t.co/p2RlMOvKJh

[Shubham Kumar - Macro & Markets @ShubhamKumar_IA]

RHI Magnesita is well positioned from the upcoming steel capacity expansion in India

It is trying to graduate from a refractory supplier to integrated Refractory solutions provider with its 4Pro offering

The write-downs from Dalmia's refractory solutions are over!

[Shubham Kumar - Macro & Markets @ShubhamKumar_IA]

Electricity & Water are the toll businesses on India's growth story

Keep hunting bottlenecks

[Shubham Kumar - Macro & Markets @ShubhamKumar_IA]

@gaze_observer Interesting, lets see how it plays out

Customers in upper premium segment buy the badge, not specs
Thus far, Titan designs were not as appealing as Swatch, Tissot, Seiko Grand types

[Shubham Kumar - Macro & Markets @ShubhamKumar_IA]

Have been following "Beat the Street" for quite some time

Whatever company they highlighted for accounting mismatches, has sooner or later turned out to be a fraud

They might not catch everything but, what they report has substance!

[Beat The Street @BeatTheStreet10]

Rajesh Exports - 99% of Revenue is BOGUS

Two years back, we did a Detailed Forensic Analysis

Now SEBI has found revenue misrepresentation of INR 15 Lakh Crore, an amount equivalent to 3 FY.

A Thread on SEBI's Forensic Audit

[Shubham Kumar - Macro & Markets @ShubhamKumar_IA]

@BeatTheStreet10 You guys have been ahead of the curve in forensics! Kudos!

[Shubham Kumar - Macro & Markets @ShubhamKumar_IA]

Ceinsys Tech

Order book shrunk from 1000 cr to 876 cr QoQ
When investing in EPC/Engineering services company, focus on rate of change of order book, not Revenue

Slowing order book is visible across Electrical EPC, Transformers as well

Hence, the companies are being hammered!