Simon van den Berg

ASX Small Cap Investing/Position Trading. Views are my own, not investment advice.

[JustDario @DarioCpx]

I’d love to see the face of the dude paying 100k$ a month to have the preview of this post

[Simon van den Berg @Simon_vdBerg]

@TraderPamplona f. Surrounded by infrastructure - mains power and two hungry mills (Punitaqui & El Espinosa)

[Simon van den Berg @Simon_vdBerg]

@TraderPamplona On this basis - have a look at $CPO

a. 3km + alteration footprint:
b. Historic hole 493m @ 0.93% CuEq
c. Only drilled to ~400m
d. Multiple untested porphyries
e. FDEV A$5m

Drilling Vista Montana targets imminently, 1.5km up dip from historic hole, assays expected end November

[Simon van den Berg @Simon_vdBerg]

@respeculator @LD9918 Plus, AUDCu was ~A$4/lb back in 18/19/20.
Almost A$7/lb today.

[Simon van den Berg @Simon_vdBerg]

@Jkoozi1 $AMI

[Simon van den Berg @Simon_vdBerg]

@sparkes_dwayne 138Mt is only Measured & Indicated. Given its bulk tonnage/low grade… probable that there’s hundreds of millions of tonnes (if not Billions of tonnes?) of Inferred Resource, which will be converted into Reserves in time..?If there are many of these in China… they will be mined.

[Simon van den Berg @Simon_vdBerg]

@DerGoldreport Ummm… EV sales globally are stalling.
Early EV adopters reaching saturation point.
Spot SC6 printing US$1,650/t now (down ~70% from peak)
PLS spot EV/CF now stretching +5x… which in an underlying commodity bear market.. is kinda generous?
Easy target for shorts on that basis!

[Simon van den Berg @Simon_vdBerg]

@NeilRingdahl $LIN.ASX

The Kangangkunde REE Carbonatite in Malawi.

$LYC tried to buy this asset last cycle, but it got away from them.

It could reshape the NdPr market for the next 200yrs.

[Simon van den Berg @Simon_vdBerg]

@StanH2443 You seem to be ignoring the massive H&S that is currently unfolding… testing the RHS line now… a break down would yield an ~$2.50-$3.00 target?

[Treasure Unicorn @ASXTreasurehunt]

$ACB 18c,TO by $DYL or not, 2-3x upside from here even if U stays put. Don’t forget they have a quality cobalt project also. More when they start active works on U again. Even more when/if $ACB gets included in one of the ETFs early next yr. one of my top 10 conviction holds

[Simon van den Berg @Simon_vdBerg]

$VRX and all silica sands companies hoping to export through Geraldton are currently uneconomic projects at US$30/t Panamax freight. Forecast revenue wouldn’t even cover the freight, let alone the rest of the cost base.

[Keith Goode @Eagleresa]

Talk about cheap as chips. $FEX / Fenix unaudited FY21 NPAT ~$49m, 470M shares in issue say eps 10c (actually 10.4c) - states pay div policy of 50% to 80% infers 5c to 8c per year (paid semi annually or annually) so curr 29c -implies div yield 17% to 28% - what !! WOW !! 🚀🚀🌋👍

[Simon van den Berg @Simon_vdBerg]

@ArefMiriRek It’s nothing like what you have suggested.
$GWR C1 cost A$120/t excludes royalties of ~A$17/t and freight US$32/t.
AIC of A$180/t, or A$216mpa of cost. Therefore @ 1.2mtpa makes $57mpa (100%) fcf.
$GWR @ 70% now ($40mpa), @ max 82.5% ($47mpa) next year.

[Simon van den Berg @Simon_vdBerg]

Superb.

[BankingSlut @bankingslut]

A day in the life of an Analyst:

[John_Hempton @John_Hempton]

I am stunned by the number of people with no qualifications in science of any kind beyond high school who want to argue about vaccination with @ProfPCDoherty.

FFS he has a Nobel Prize for immunology.

A surprising number of these people are in finance.

#fintwit

[Simon van den Berg @Simon_vdBerg]

$GWR - funny how none of its believers will post Qtly CF forecasts - is it because they are actually quite underwhelming?

[Simon van den Berg @Simon_vdBerg]

@BhagCapital @KirilRuvinsky Actually, I used US$214/t for $GWR JQtr, but that was June avg price. So, Apr/May/June $180/$206/214(x2) = US$203/t - $30/t freight / 0.77 = A$224/t received. C1 A$110/t + A$20/t royalties = A$130/t AIC.
(($224-$130)x220kt)x70% = A$14.5m FCF = $25m cash eoq.

[Simon van den Berg @Simon_vdBerg]

@Scutty Seems at odds with steel prices…?

[Reuters Energy and Commodities @ReutersCommods]

-.@PiedmontLithium has a deal to supply @Tesla, but it has yet to apply for state permits or zoning changes, irking officials who now say they may block or delay the project @ErnestScheyder https://t.co/K9vVkbQSYT

[Simon van den Berg @Simon_vdBerg]

@KirilRuvinsky What’s your forecast of $GWR June Q fcf @KirilRuvinsky?
And what do your numbers tell you that $GWR will make in the Sept Qtr?
Can you articulate exactly what you think the massive cash flow looks like please?

[Simon van den Berg @Simon_vdBerg]

@AlexMiningGuy RSA supplies 60% of global seaborne Mn supply - if Transnet experiences interruptions/outages… might be time to go long $JMS!