Simple Guy

[Austin Lieberman @LiebermanAustin]

I think this podcast caused the sell off in $MU and $SNDK today.

$NBIS $CRWV and $IREN was from the $META news.

[Simple Guy @SimplekGuy]

@StockSavvyShay Does this effect $ASTS in any way?

[Simple Guy @SimplekGuy]

@MomAngtrades How else did you expect them to play 0dte ?

[Anuj @anujcodes_21]

🚨 Anthropic just showed a 24-minute workshop on how to actually do prompts for Claude.

Taught by the people who built it.

Free. No registration. No paywall.

I've seen $300 courses that don't cover what they teach in the first 8 minutes.

Watch it and bookmark it now.

[Simple Guy @SimplekGuy]

@from1to4000000 Its traded by jane street. Very volatile.

[SPAC Track @spactrack]

SPAC & De-SPAC Trading Stats (06/15/26)

SPACs saw renewed momentum with $MBAV and $BSAA leading the charge, while De-SPAC traders piled into $HQ and $HUBC as speculative names continued to dominate the tape.

SPACs (DA partner):
– $MBAV +10.15% to $10.74 on 5.45M shares
– $BSAA (HDEducation Group) +9.62% to $15.10
– $AFJK (United Hydrogen Group) +6.03% to $35.00
– $SPKL (ZincFive) +3.99% to $13.69

De-SPACs:
– $HQ +63.34% to $17.82 on 6.24M shares
– $HUBC +42.37% to $1.68 on 48.95M shares
– $ARQQ +31.76% to $17.92
– $SLBT -42.59% to $3.33

All tickers: $MBAV $BSAA $AFJK $SPKL $RDAC $RAAQ $IRAB $PCSC $LOKV $FGMC $BCAR $BBCQ $VACI $NHIC $HQ $HUBC $ARQQ $BRUN $XNDU $ALIT $VSEE $MNTS $STI $SLBT $MVST $SABS $GPGI #SPACs #DeSPACGainers

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

$ASTS: I think this is what the plan is, at least on paper, when they tell us "approximately 45 satellites" on the table/guidance.

Whether you believe it'll pan out is a separate question.

[Paradis Labs @ParadisLabs]

Stock Ratings [June 7th]:

On current AI sector crash. Explanations below.

Strong Buy:
$GOOGL
$MU
$SNDK
SK Hynix

Buy:
$AMZN
$AEHR
$AAOI
$CIEN
$COHR
$CRDO
$DELL
$FN
$FORM
$GLW
$JBL
$LITE
$MDB
$MRVL
$MSFT
$NBIS
$NOW
$NVDA
$RDDT
$RKLB
$SIVE

Hold:
$ARM
$ASML
$AVGO
$AXTI
$BE
$META
$MTSI
$PLTR
$SOFI

Avoid:
$CBRS
$CRWV
$ETH
$HIMS
$IBIT / $BTC
$IREN
$MELI
$SNAP
$TSLA
$SPCX (SpaceX) IPO

---

Thoughts:

Strong Buy:

GOOGL - $85B raise is dilutive but they actually have ROI on their capex. Tbh, they'll probably always be a Strong Buy for me. Just the cleanest AI ROI among all the megacaps.

MU / SNDK / SK Hynix - If you're not bullish on memory, then idk for you.

Buy:

AMZN - Mainly for AWS reacceleration + Trainium. But some tension comparing AWS growth (+17%) vs Azure (+31%). Feel like custom silicon + distribution combo is durable even if growth rate lags a bit.

AEHR - H2 ramp in WLBI/PLBI systems coming, anchored by "significant" follow-on Sonoma order from lead hyperscale customer. Just need to wait a bit esp. for rev to inflect. But AI ASIC burb in is mandatory as device power goes up.

AAOI - Q3 capacity ramp (via facility expansion in Texas) toward 650k+ 800G/1.6T units/mth. Capacity coming online is the catalyst imo along w/ already known laser bottleneck + Made in US premiums.

CIEN - Just a high quality biz that got pounded last week (-22%). Beat + raise earnings, but stock dropping this much is an overreaction. CEO even said demand is "structural, multi year and AI-driven" shown by AI-driven DCI being their fastest growing part of the order book as new long-haul routes get built for latency and bandwidth.

COHR - upcoming CPO ramp (Nvidia spectrum-x) will speed things up, these prices will look cheap when we look back imo.

CRDO - Personally bought a ton last week post-earnings drop. Like Ciena, v. high quality compounding hold through the whole AI supercycle. Crazy high margins. Obviously compete w/ Marvell/Broadcom on SerDes, but also need to factor in the 1.6T switch replacement cycle into late 2026.

DELL - Trump effect. I've learnt my lesson and will listen to him next time.

FN - v. low drama way to ride transceiver demand + iPronics sipho line for cpo. New datacom wins also extending into next FY, although some Nvidia conc. risks. Put them in Buy just to be generous as was unsure tbh.

FORM - Important for HBM, adv packaging and CPO for higher yields. Foundry test intensity only set to increase w/ production.

GLW - Lead glass core substrates which are an advanced packaging bottleneck. LTP w/ Nvidia to expand US optical manufacturing for AI infra too.

JBL - Stock has done nothing for a month, but earnings coming up could be a nice catalyst for a push higher from their DC infra segment growing + outpacing drag from legacy mobility/ev exposure / margin mix.

LITE - CPO ramp + Nvidia qualification like Coherent.

MDB - AI is not replacing them. Imo they win vs. bolt on vector stores since their architecture is so simple.

MRVL - going to $1T according to Jensen. Underlying business is solid though esp. w/ Celestial acquisition for photonics. SPY inclusion last week too is a big positive.

MSFT - Current valuations are a joke tbh, markets probs punishing some margin compression. Rev +18%, Azure +40%, AI run rate +123%. So, v. clear enterprise monetisation path. Will be buying next week in retirement account.

NBIS - Best neocloud by far. They're a $100B biz vs. ~$57B currently. Jensen: "Nebius will take care of you."

NOW - AI is not replacing them. No enterprise CEO/CTO is dumb enough to offboard them at this point.

NVDA - Same as Microsoft. Been buying this whole time, but am now even more confused at current cheap valuations.

RDDT - AI is not replacing them. Cash printer. ARPUs improving also in legacy segments like international.

RKLB - #2 in commercial launch after SpaceX + their IPO should re-rate the entire space comp set where RKLB is the main liquid proxy. Unbelievable earnings also, just executing so well rn.

SIVE - everyone on X knows at this point?

Hold:

ARM - current valuation prices in flawless execution imo. But their IP is growing in DC CPUs e.g. Nvidia grace, AWS Graviton etc.

ASML - Elon said yesterday: "ASML should be treasured and supported. It is arguably the greatest company in Europe." - I agree. Also Terafab fireside chat next week High-NA EUV is the next leg, locking in the roadmap through the decade. Could also be a "Buy" for more risk averse people.

AVGO - CEO didn't raise >$100B FY27 target + flagged that Google will multi-source. Current AI mix is also diluting margins slightly. Just needed a pullback before the thesis starts working again.

AXTI - InP substrate bottleneck, crucial for AI buildout rn. Could also buy rn, just a slow dca since they've run up a ton already + raise completed ($632M) to 2x InP capacity.

BE - SOFC winner imo (Ceres 2nd). Don't think it's a buy just yet due to some valuation vs. profitability gaps.

META - hold based on capital allocation mainly. Market seems wary of the ROI on their AI capex hence the continuous dips. Also potential raise to fund capex like Google too - once that digests, I'll personally look to buy.

MTSI - Big fan of their investment into $IQE since it de-risks operations a lot, but just think COHR/LITE are better options for 800G/1.6T transition.

PLTR - Relatively poor Risk:Reward at current multiples.

SOFI - rate sensitivity. Loan book + credit performance carry macro risk which caps conviction rn. Some positives though w/ young + growing member base. Would need to look at credit trends + Fed path in June FOMC to re-assess.

Avoid:

CBRS - avoid at current prices. Would want it to come down closer to ~$40B mc before I look to dca. Would love to hold since they own genuinely unique tech.

CRWV / IREN - Financing for both is a mess...debt/dilution. Nebius are just a better multi yr neocloud.

HIMS - Forced out of higher margin GLP1s into lower margin braded GLPs from Novo/Lilly. Feel like their moat was to do w/ regulatory arbitrage on compounding. With that gone, it's a customer acquisition + churn biz buying branded drugs at lower margin.

IBIT / BTC - Macro setup is hostile. Higher rates for longer (10Y ~4.54%, 30Y >5%) raise opportunity cost. Pure liquidity/risk appetite instrument + both are tight rn.

ETH - same as bitcoin.

MELI - personally a little confused - either a hold/avoid. Seeing some margin compression via their credit book growing faster than revenues. Talks of margin recovery next year, at which point the stock could re-rate.

SNAP - Absolute worst social media app + CEO is a weirdo. Platform keeps losing share to Meta/Tiktok.

TSLA - Huge competition from other EV makers shown by production > deliveries volumes. Humanoids will be their next key growth driver, just a little while away.

SPCX (SpaceX) IPO: I never personally participate in IPOs + SpaceX specifically is way too overvalued for me. Will be going long eventually though. Rough ballpark would be ~$1.5T if it gets there post IPO.

---

Just for very high level notes at current stock prices (NFA).

I'm personally staying long despite the current macro backdrop, mainly in AI supercycle names e.g. memory, semis etc.

But then you also have great companies at depressed prices, mainly in SaaS which I'm DCA'ing currently.

I don't hold positions in all of these names. This is just a subset that overlaps my "Close Tracking" list + X's favourite names.

[Simple Guy @SimplekGuy]

@from1to4000000 @JMcan7 Considering weekend to reset the sentiment…first day might be..

[Simple Guy @SimplekGuy]

@EBUYUKARSLAN Give it a couple of days..

[BULL OF BRITAIN @BULLOFBRITAIN]

My opinion on the best companies for every role in Photonics - from someone with 1000+ hours on the sector.

Layer 1 (Equipment): $AIXA
Layer 2 (Substrates / Raw Materials): $SOI
Layer 3 (Epiwafers): $IQE
Layer 4 (PIC Fabrication / Foundry): $TSEM
Layer 5 (Lasers / Light Sources): $LITE
Layer 6 (Electronic ICs (Drivers / DSP / TIA): $MRVL
Layer 7 (Packaging / Assembly / CPO): $TSM
Layer 8 (Transceivers): $AAOI
Layer 9 (Passive Optics): $GLW
Layer 10 (Test & Measurement): $AEHR
Layer 11 (Switch ASICs): $NVDA
Layer 12 (Hyperscalers): $AMZN

[BULL OF BRITAIN @BULLOFBRITAIN]

Loved the theme posting by @KawzInvests and @ParadisLabs (follow them)

So I decided to follow this up and go one step further by mapping out the timeline of all these themes and their ramp dates.

RUNNING NOW (Still biddable, but easy money gone)

> agentic AI flipped the CPU:GPU ratio from 1:8 to 1:4 already, server CPU prices up 20% with 6 month lead times
> general server MLCC rides the same CPU revival, already inflecting not waiting
> memory is the real bottleneck, DRAM revenue +303% in 26 and NAND +208%, squeeze runs into 27-28

SWEET SPOT (Inflection point)

> high end MLCC at 20+ week lead times, Murata order inquiries at 2x supply capacity, OEM price hikes land next quarter
> advanced packaging scales with the HBM4 and Rubin ramp
> liquid cooling is not a sleeper, Rubin mandates full liquid so it inflects with the GPUs, not after
> CPO and 1.6T optics scale hard with Rubin, Foxconn already shipping CPO switch from Q3, 10k units in 26

FRONTRUN (scale into H2 26)

> SiC and GaN power ride the 800V push, autos already matured the cost curve
> gallium is the GaN feedstock, upstream of the entire power buildout
> 800V HVDC hits mass deployment with Kyber in 27, supply chain gears up through H2 26 (Vertiv launches H2 26)
> 600kW racks arrive with Kyber in 27, the whole power chain rerates ahead of it

WATCH ONLY (too early to size)

> humanoids are a future demand pool, not a 26-27 trade
> 6G is a late decade story
> photonic memory still early stage
> quantum prototypes in 27, IBM fault tolerance target 29, Foxconn commercialization around 30, so the frontrun window is H2 28 to H1 29

Do not become dilution for Quantum. If you want a 1hr rundown on the future of Quantum I'd recommend you watch the @MartinShkreli and @StockSavvyShay debate.

[Jonah Lupton @JonahLupton]

If you want to learn about peptides, I highly recommend listening to this interview... @AbudBakri knows his stuff, very impressive knowledge base.

[Simple Guy @SimplekGuy]

@athuinvests @asianinvestors Everyone are more worried about when the actual revenue will be recognized.
He doesn’t mention how much of the Revenue pipeline will be converted into actual revenue in 2027 if not 2026. there are no actual orders.

[Daniel Koss @daniel_koss]

https://t.co/UJU7vrRZyj

[Simple Guy @SimplekGuy]

@Thebayouguy @crux_capital_ Thank you so much for the info. I’ll look into this.

[Simple Guy @SimplekGuy]

@h79sharesunder Such a terrible take!! You have so much negative to talk about SIVE and you had to pick this, lol.

What did you expect, go in a sequential order and address thousands of questions.

[Simple Guy @SimplekGuy]

@mkfilko @jasonschips Me too..