Kevin Chen

$ASTS, $QS, $AUR | economics, theology, philosophy, and the UAP phenomenon | Lost access to @Defiantclient

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

$ASTS: The @AST_SpaceMobile subreddit FAQ is now freshly updated with new information.

+ Key DD links and resources
+ Valuation calculators
+ Launch providers
+ What's stopping Elon from refusing to launch AST's BlueBird satellites?
+ How many satellites are needed for coverage?
+ AST keeps missing their guidance for satellite launches. What is going on here? How do we trust them moving forward?
+ What are AST's plans with Block 1, Block 2 and Block 3 satellites and how does that relate to spectrum usage?
+ Do AST satellites support 4G, LTE, 5G, 6G, 7G, etc.?
+ When will ASTS get regulatory clearance from the FCC for US market access?
+ What is each BlueBird satellite made of?
+ What is the difference between BB6/BB7 and BB8+?
+ What is the status of the next BlueBird satellites?
+ When is the next earnings call?
+ What are the chances of satellite failure?
+ WTF!! The Chief Technology Officer Huiwen Yao sold all his shares?! (Hint: he didn't)
+ Is there a Discord for live chatting about ASTS?
+ How do I buy AST merch?
+ Wen moon?
+ Wen lunch?
+ Wen BB shipment?

https://t.co/wQfxs6Y3Iz

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

@anetysse @peter_adderton @spacanpanman @endless_frank @CatSE___ApeX___ @corleoneinvests @ASTS_Investors @wave3trades @BlackApple @SpacBobby I don’t trust him

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

@DragonMaxGoku @AST_SpaceMobile Launch date is PR’d around a week before the actual launch.

I suspect BB14-16 became a standby payload after we missed the original launch slot and that’s why the comms are so funky this time.

The manifest is open until late November.

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

$ASTS: @AST_SpaceMobile just edited their latest tweet about 7 hours after posting, scrubbing the reference to starting service in Japan by year end 2026.

First, that was sloppy. No excusing that. Especially as this was definitely not the first time that they edited a tweet several hours after posting. Usually it would be for a silly typo (which is also sloppy as shit). This time, they removed a meaningful piece of information.

In my view, it is one of two likely reasons they made the edit:

+ The timeline is a mistake as in they won’t start service by year end with @Rakuten_Mobile, or

+ AST wasn’t supposed to publish the timeline themselves because they have always deferred timeline announcements to their partners.

Couple of pieces of supporting evidence for the latter theory that the timeline to service is still this year:

1) Only about 7 days ago, Rakuten was handing out brochures promoting a Q4 service start at an industry conference/event. See the quoted post below for the brochure.

2) Only 2 days ago, AST PR’d that they would start service this year. (I think maybe the PR was safe but not the tweet because the PR did not directly say which MNOs they would start service with. Yes they named their MNO strategic partners in the PR somewhere but it wasn’t directly in a statement about service starting in 2026.)

Stay tuned 🤷‍♂️

[niwatori @niwaX3_niwatori]

楽天の2026年第四半期 国内サービス行けるのか？

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

Yes possibly.

You never know what’s in these contracts.

For example the entire world knows Globalstar’s partner is Apple but Globalstar cannot name them, ever. Even when the Globalstar CEO is on a panel with a host and the host literally says Apple to their face. I don’t think the MNO-AST situation is as extreme as that but just one strong example to illustrate.

The PR just says Japan. Could be Rakuten (it most likely is) or even another partner in the works such as Docomo or NTT. Point is — the PR doesn’t announce Rakuten’s timeline for Rakuten.

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

@5xSuitor @AST_SpaceMobile That’s Option 1 in my post but I’m pretty sure it’s Option 2. Idk tho.

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

@DragonMaxGoku @AST_SpaceMobile I don’t think it’s a retraction. I covered “why was the PR ok but not the tweet” in my post.

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

@bradinhooooo @AST_SpaceMobile Abel’s counterpart would be Hiroshi Mikitani, who wasn’t in the photo either. Guess they’re doing something else.

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

@CaptainScuzzy @AST_SpaceMobile We wouldn’t know if they did

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

@ChrisGalli59239 @AST_SpaceMobile Pretty sure they’ll start service with any number of BBs by year end, wherever their cards may fall:

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

$ASTS: It was long guided by @AST_SpaceMobile that initial noncontinuous service would begin with 25 BlueBirds (5 Block 1 plus 20 Block 2). However, on the Q2 earnings call, @scottwisniews hinted at pulling beta service forward by the end of the year with fewer than 25 BBs in his reply to Louie Dipalma of @WilliamBlair. 👇

Louie Dipalma, William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division

Great. Thanks Scott. And you discussed the beta trials. What is the timing in terms of when consumers will be able to trial your network? I know that you don't want to speak on behalf of your carrier partners, but have they given any sense on when the generic AT&T and Verizon customers will be able to test out the service?

And related to that, if there are like 25 satellites in orbit, from a general location in the United States, what percentage of the day will a satellite be overhead such that consumers will be able to connect to your network?

Scott Wisniewski, President & Chief Strategy Officer, AST SpaceMobile

Thanks, Louie. So getting the capability ready for consumers is something that we're targeting for later in 2026. How we go to market with that, how we use that, of course, like you said, we're going to defer to our partners and there'll be announcements on that in the right way.

But we're very focused on enabling that. And there's a lot that you can do separate, apart from the space. So those 2 are kind of separate. And so while we've historically said 25 satellites is the right way to think about it, we have great flexibility there on how we do beta.

So for us, it's all about racing forward towards putting satellites in the air and then racing towards getting a scaled beta available because, of course, the steps from a scaled beta to commercial service is pretty quick. It's just a function of satellites in orbit. And in terms of our -- about 25 satellites, like you said, that's -- there's a lot of variance there, but think about it as about half the day coverage.

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

@AustinSlezak @AST_SpaceMobile @Rakuten_Mobile @RakutenSymphony 🤷‍♂️

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

$ASTS: @AST_SpaceMobile just edited their latest tweet about 7 hours after posting, scrubbing the reference to starting service in Japan by year end 2026.

First, that was sloppy. No excusing that. Especially as this was definitely not the first time that they edited a tweet several hours after posting. Usually it would be for a silly typo (which is also sloppy as shit). This time, they removed a meaningful piece of information.

In my view, it is one of two likely reasons they made the edit:

+ The timeline is a mistake as in they won’t start service by year end with @Rakuten_Mobile, or

+ AST wasn’t supposed to publish the timeline themselves because they have always deferred timeline announcements to their partners.

Couple of pieces of supporting evidence for the latter theory that the timeline to service is still this year:

1) Only about 7 days ago, Rakuten was handing out brochures promoting a Q4 service start at an industry conference/event. See the quoted post below for the brochure.

2) Only 2 days ago, AST PR’d that they would start service this year. (I think maybe the PR was safe but not the tweet because the PR did not directly say which MNOs they would start service with. Yes they named their MNO strategic partners in the PR somewhere but it wasn’t directly in a statement about service starting in 2026.)

Stay tuned 🤷‍♂️

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

@PSInvestor They have said they’ll get it funded with non dilutive means such as government grants

[Anp🅰️nman @spacanpanman]

$ASTS: One day, Harvard Business School will teach Mike Sievert's partnership with SpaceX as one of the greatest corporate own goals in telecom history.

How T-Mobile helped SpaceX enter the mobile industry by providing valuable mid-band spectrum, supporting technology development, and lending its distribution and marketing muscle to help build and brand a future competitor to its own core mobile business.

And the kicker? Starlink's fixed broadband service was ALREADY competing with T-Mobile's 5G Home Internet business.🤦‍♂️

That said, if it weren't for Starlink, AST SpaceMobile might not have had the opportunity to lock up potentially 100% of the US, Europe and other markets.

[Anp🅰️nman @spacanpanman]

$ASTS: SpaceX pursuing 80,000 cell sites confirms its move to become the nation's fourth mobile network operator and compete against AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile. It could cost $30 - $40B over 10 years before operating costs and additional $ for spectrum.

The competitive threat to incumbent MNOs is now crystal clear. This makes AST strategically indispensable. AST offers US and global MNOs an independent super wholesale partner of true space-based cellular broadband connectivity that strengthens their coverage and counters Starlink Mobile's threat.

The strategic incentives are now perfectly aligned. AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile (soon) have every reason to accelerate AST's deployment, provide financing and ensure it succeeds. They need to tell customers they can deliver broadband connectivity across 100% of their geographic footprint, including "1-bar" areas - not just places where +90% of where most people live and work.

SpaceX will be spending tens of billions to build a competing terrestrial network to compete, while AST can leverage the infrastructure, spectrum and customer bases that the MNOs around the world already control.

SpaceX's aggressive expansion in the MNO business is the most bullish catalyst for AST SpaceMobile. The market has yet to understand this, but it will in due time.

[Mike @BlackScholesMan]

I nailed it by a day! To put this in context this is larger than Verizon’s entire ~70,000 macro tower footprint. SpaceX is targeting more terrestrial infrastructure than Verizon operates.

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

$ASTS $SPCX: How often do you upgrade your phone?

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

@MsVeilMoney This is why https://t.co/ATSMl6WvKW

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

$ASTS: My updated summary of @AST_SpaceMobile post-Q2 2026 update 👇

PROVEN TECHNOLOGY
+ Broadband D2D technology, protected by over 3,900 patents and patent-pending claims
+ Demonstrated peak data rate of 98.9 Mbps over international waters in a 10 MHz channel using Block 1, achieving a peak spectral efficiency of ~10 bits/Hz
+ Block 2 BlueBirds anticipated to nearly double the speeds of Block 1
+ Successfully unfolded 4 of 4 of the largest phased arrays in LEO with BB6, BB8, BB9 and BB10 (~223 sqm antennas).
+ Proven seamless satellite-to-satellite handover
+ Actively working on ~10 distinct non-communications use cases, each in various stages of maturity and each having potential to grow into government contracts worth "hundreds of millions" of annual revenue each. Multi-billion dollar opportunity to start in 2027.
+ Actively demonstrating low band radar applications to the US government, supporting the needs of Golden Dome and the Arsenal of Freedom.
+ Proprietary ASIC with up to 10 GHz of processing bandwidth per satellite enables 10x throughput improvement relative to Block 1 satellites and up to 10x improvement in user experience unlocked through AI-enabled spectrum management
+ Native cellular architecture favors MNOs and regulators using existing commercially trusted baseband ground-based hardware, with traffic remaining in-country
+ Additional applications include non-communications, USG secure communications, additional funded networks, Internet of Things (IoT), federal emergency, and AI edge compute

PARTNERSHIPS
+ Multiple 5 to 10 year commercial definitive agreements and/or equity investments with major key MNOs around the world: AT&T, FirstNet, Verizon, Vodafone, STC Group, Bell, and Telus.
+ Deployed over 3,000 low band cells in the US with expectation to deploy the remaining cells in 2026 to light up the roughly 5,600 cells that cover the US.
+ Actively collaborating with Meta and Google, including an equity investment from Google.
+ Over 60 memorandums of understanding and agreements with global MNOs who collectively cover over 3B subscribers.
+ Approximately 50 gateways are in various stages of completion, installation and planning across 20 markets.
+ In Q2 alone delivered 13 gateways to 7 customers across 5 continents.
+ European joint venture with Vodafone: Satellite Connect Europe, which is actively doing network integration and testing with Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefonica, Axian Telecom, VodafoneThree UK, Vodafone Ireland, Romania, and Ukraine, CK Hutchison Group, Sunrise, and Taiwan Mobile
+ Japanese joint venture in progress with Rakuten, including preliminary award of J-LEO which will provide ~1B of non-dilutive non-debt government capital.
+ In discussion with other government parties for J-LEO type constellations (G20, NATO).
+ Prime Contractor to the US government
+ Teaming agreement with Fairwinds for communications applications for the US government/military

REGULATORY/SPECTRUM
+ Full FCC commercial approval for 248 BlueBird satellites, which includes access to a total of up to 53x53 MHz low band MNO spectrum in the US
+ Total 543 satellite constellation filed to the ITU
+ 1,150 MHz low and mid-band tunable MNO spectrum globally
+ 80 year access to Ligado's 45 MHz of MSS L-band in North America
+ Actively testing 7 MHz + 7 MHz nationwide low band spectrum in the US with Grain
+ 60 MHz of AST SpaceMobile-licensed S-band spectrum priority rights globally on a market-by-market basis
+ 10 MHz + 10 MHz MSS S band awarded by Anatel in Brazil for D2D
+ Targeting 10 MHz + 10 MHz MSS S band in Europe post WRC-27

CONTRACTS/REVENUE BACKLOG
+ ~$1.3B of contracted revenue backlog
+ Rapidly growing government revenue backlog including having won 3 awards from the US government with an aggregate value of over 125M supporting multiple national security applications
+ On track for 150M to 200M revenue in 2026
+ Anticipates ~1B revenue in 2027 with expectation for ~500M being government and the remainder to be gateways and commercial service revenue.

MANUFACTURING AND LAUNCH
+ 12 commercial BlueBird satellites in orbit
+ Next 3 BlueBirds (BB14-16) ready to ship shortly
+ 10 launches booked with 2 launch providers to put approximately 45 BlueBirds in orbit in early 2027
+ Standby launch contract with undisclosed medium/heavy lift vehicle
+ Up to BB46 in various stages of assembly, with microns completed to BB36
+ Phased arrays assembled to at least BB28 (as of May 11, 2026)
+ Manufacturing pace supports a launch cadence of every 1 to 2 months on average
+ Over 500,000 sqft of manufacturing and operations globally
+ Additional 400,000 sqft of manufacturing to come in Midland, Texas, to support government and non-government applications, bringing the total close to 1,000,000 sqft when complete
+ Investments completed to enable a production capacity of 6 satellites per month with room to grow to 10 or 12 per month via automation and facility expansions
+ Dedicated micron production facility in Texas is now fully operational, with capacity to support over 10 satellites’ worth of microns per month
+ Over 2,000 global workforce

MILESTONE BLUEBIRD NUMBERS
+ <25 for initial beta service for internal, non-commercial MNO, and government testing.
+ 25 for initial noncontinuous service in selected, targeted geographical markets
+ 45 to 60 for continuous service in key markets such as US/Europe/Japan/Canada/Saudi Arabia/India/equatorial coverage
+ 90 for global continuous coverage
+ 248 for full complete constellation
+ 543 for full planned # of satellites as filed to the ITU

CASH/LIQUIDITY
+ Robust >3.7B cash/liquidity on current balance sheet, fully funded for the build and launch of over 100 BlueBird satellites
+ OpEx: ~400M for 2026
+ CapEx: Q3 expected to be in the range of $350M to $425M primarily driven by the timing of launch payments

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

@SneedTech The big difference is their change of leadership: from @MikeSievert to @SriniGopalan

All of the Elon cocksucking was under Mike Sievert.

[Alexander @AlexfromBabylon]

$ASTS Low IQ take AST is going to zero.

High IQ take: In order to be competitive with Starlink Mobile terrestrial light & satellite heavy approach on cost and margin terrestrial heavy MNO players with limited satellite need to become more like Starlink Mobile and rely more on satellite by dynamically serving rural networks from satellite outside of peak traffic hours.

Paradox: The more successful Starlink Mobile as a national carrier the more the traditional carriers need AST. Whether they realize this at the moment is still TBD. Time and Elon spooking telco investors will educate them fast!

This could realistically 10x by 2030 as this becomes more obvious!

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

@niwaX3_niwatori Guessing they'll incorporate some kind of satellite icon when in use!

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

@HeathMcf @EutelsatGroup @AST_SpaceMobile I think because the article is focused on fixed broadband/terminal systems.

[Kevin Chen @Defiantclient2]

$ASTS: "The cost, size, weight and power draw of @EutelsatGroup's terminals make them particularly unsuitable on the battlefield."

This is where @AST_SpaceMobile comes in with broadband from LEO directly to devices with a standard size cellular modem, including the phones that soldiers already own.

[CNBC @CNBC]

Musk's clash with Ukraine accelerates demand for Starlink alternatives. Few exist https://t.co/uynBDRk0Ja