Staudinger

PhD Engineer and former research fellow at MIT. Growth investor primarily interested in $RKLB, $ASTS, $QS, & $ETH but also $ANGX & $OPEN. Posts are NFA.

[Prof @TheProfInvestor]

Market goes up 20% for two months.

One day it drops -1%,

Bears: I warned you.

[Staudinger @Staudinger333]

@islandtimechef @AceCrouton Won't be ready by EOY. On the pad would be best-case scenario at this point.

[Staudinger @Staudinger333]

$RKLB: While it is certainly possible we see $150 again here prior to the $SPCX IPO, the most recent run is clearly losing momentum.

What do I see that warrants such a statement?

The daily candle was somewhat bearish and MACD on the daily chart has officially turned over and a negative divergence is growing (as evidenced by the first couple red bars on the corresponding histogram).

The weekly chart (not shown) also indicates an overbought RSI retreating and a MACD signal that is losing momentum.

Like I said, it is possible to see a rally back up to $150 before the SpaceX IPO, but I think this one outpaced some other names in the space sector early in this sector rally and it is therefore beginning its pullback/correction first.

Eventually, ~$110 and then $99 are coming later this summer prior to an EOY rally that pushes us up to, and quite possibly beyond, $150. Just comes down to Neutron and whether they can realistically launch this year (which I don't think will happen).

GLTA and NFA...

[Staudinger @Staudinger333]

$RKLB: After a nearly 18% correction from the most recent ATHs, RSI has worked off its overbought conditions.

SP is currently sitting on the 20 sma and 21 ema as support, but with MACD about to turn over.

Collectively, I think we see a reflexive bounce in all space sector stocks ahead of the SpaceX IPO, which very well could represent a sell-the-news event.

I still contend a pullback to ~$110, at a minimum, is likely at some point. This level represents the previous resistance level. ~$99 is also possible to re-test the previous ATHs.

From there? I see this back above $150 by EOY on a fierce Neutron-inspired rally.

GLTA and NFA...

[Staudinger @Staudinger333]

@NLEwhopp4 Not always, but this time yes.

[Staudinger @Staudinger333]

$ASTS: I remain bullish AF here.

Today marks the highest close on the weekly chart (yes, I know the week's not over yet).

RSI on the weekly chart has also not reached overbought levels yet either, and MACD still is showing positive divergence as represented by the larger green bars on the corresponding histogram.

All excellent signs that we go higher from here.

I still contend ~$170 is in the cards and as high as $206 is possible given historical trends on the weekly chart after a bullish MACD cross.

GLTA and NFA...

[Staudinger @Staudinger333]

$ASTS: Showed good resilience today and currently sitting on support even though it closed slightly below the 9 ema.

However, keeping an eye on RSI and MACD, both of which are starting to turn over.

Doesn't necessarily mean the next major correction has started, though, as we could very well see dip buying turn into an aggressive short-term rally, much like last December.

Need to hold the $101-106 range of support as a prerequisite for another move up.

The weekly chart still looks good as well wrt MACD and price action.

The space sector in general has sold off hard the past two days, so I am expecting to see some buyers stepping in to give us a positive week overall here to keep the weekly trend intact.

GLTA and NFA...

[Staudinger @Staudinger333]

$RKLB: Looks awesome!

[Rocket Lab @RocketLab]

Sneak peek of our recent Archimedes engine fit check to Neutron's Stage 1 thrust structure.

[Staudinger @Staudinger333]

@bennybigbull It is high beta but is not tied to movements with high beta equities.

You also have to remember that there are a ton of BTC and ETH ETFs nowadays and fund managers rotate out of these to dabble in what's moving, which is currently tech equities (AI, space, etc.).

[Staudinger @Staudinger333]

@JohnIsRight89 https://t.co/rbQCbh7jIv

[NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman @NASAAdmin]

I enjoyed being at the CNBC event, but I wanted to clarify. The question was about the timing of the Moon Base and recent lunar rover awards. I was pointing out that those missions are not until 2028, which should be well within what is possible for pad recovery.

Blue Origin leadership has responded incredibly quickly, and NASA will do all we can to help with root cause analysis and accelerate pad recovery timeframes while staying extremely focused on progressing the lander.

[Staudinger @Staudinger333]

$ASTS: Excellent news for AST!

[Dave Limp @davill]

Some LC-36 updates. Now that we’ve had access to the pad and integration facility we can share a bit of good news. The propellant farm, oxygen, liquid hydrogen and LNG tanks are all in good shape. This is good luck because these are very long lead items. The water tower is also good. The big support tower is damaged, but it can be repaired in place rather than torn down and replaced. The booster “Never Tell Me The Odds” and the three GS-2s that were onsite in the integration facility also look good.

I’ve seen some speculation that we might move directly to the 9x4 configuration, but we won’t do that. Rate manufacturing of 7x2 is going well, and we’re going to continue that at pace as planned and store the stages for use. In addition, we had already been working for some time on eliminating our transporter-erector in favor of an alternative vertical conop, and we’ll now go directly to that; so we don’t need a new transporter-erector.

We will fly again before the end of this year. Gradatim Ferociter.

[Staudinger @Staudinger333]

@JohnIsRight89 Fake news. This has been debunked.

[Staudinger @Staudinger333]

@business Not as bad as you think: https://t.co/8b2wpTZIU3

[Dave Limp @davill]

Some LC-36 updates. Now that we’ve had access to the pad and integration facility we can share a bit of good news. The propellant farm, oxygen, liquid hydrogen and LNG tanks are all in good shape. This is good luck because these are very long lead items. The water tower is also good. The big support tower is damaged, but it can be repaired in place rather than torn down and replaced. The booster “Never Tell Me The Odds” and the three GS-2s that were onsite in the integration facility also look good.

I’ve seen some speculation that we might move directly to the 9x4 configuration, but we won’t do that. Rate manufacturing of 7x2 is going well, and we’re going to continue that at pace as planned and store the stages for use. In addition, we had already been working for some time on eliminating our transporter-erector in favor of an alternative vertical conop, and we’ll now go directly to that; so we don’t need a new transporter-erector.

We will fly again before the end of this year. Gradatim Ferociter.

[Staudinger @Staudinger333]

@ScottieAllen99 Neutron is not likely to launch this year, IMO, but rather make it to the pad for initial testing. $193 seems arbitrary.

[Staudinger @Staudinger333]

$RKLB: After a nearly 18% correction from the most recent ATHs, RSI has worked off its overbought conditions.

SP is currently sitting on the 20 sma and 21 ema as support, but with MACD about to turn over.

Collectively, I think we see a reflexive bounce in all space sector stocks ahead of the SpaceX IPO, which very well could represent a sell-the-news event.

I still contend a pullback to ~$110, at a minimum, is likely at some point. This level represents the previous resistance level. ~$99 is also possible to re-test the previous ATHs.

From there? I see this back above $150 by EOY on a fierce Neutron-inspired rally.

GLTA and NFA...

[Staudinger @Staudinger333]

$RKLB: Divergent trend emerging between SP and RSI.

Same with SP vs volume, just not as dramatic.

With RSI this overbought, it won't be too much longer before this comes back down to retest support near $110-112 (red line, formerly resistance).

First week of June is likely the best time to buy puts and sell CCs given how stretched this is.

GLTA and NFA...

[Staudinger @Staudinger333]

There will be considerable volatility throughout the year due to higher inflation readings and midterms. Although we may see $150 again here before the SpaceX IPO in less than two weeks, I don't think it will be sustained.

I'm expecting the rest of the year to be extremely choppy...a trader's delight.

[Staudinger @Staudinger333]

It very well could reach $150 again prior to the SpaceX IPO. However, I think the whole sector will sell off afterwards and the rest of the summer is expected to be choppy given the upcoming midterms and expected inflation readings.

If Neutron is delayed further, then expect it stay capped at or below $150, IMO.

[Staudinger @Staudinger333]

$ASTS: Showed good resilience today and currently sitting on support even though it closed slightly below the 9 ema.

However, keeping an eye on RSI and MACD, both of which are starting to turn over.

Doesn't necessarily mean the next major correction has started, though, as we could very well see dip buying turn into an aggressive short-term rally, much like last December.

Need to hold the $101-106 range of support as a prerequisite for another move up.

The weekly chart still looks good as well wrt MACD and price action.

The space sector in general has sold off hard the past two days, so I am expecting to see some buyers stepping in to give us a positive week overall here to keep the weekly trend intact.

GLTA and NFA...

[Staudinger @Staudinger333]

$ASTS: FWIW, we closed the week green, keeping the trend intact on the way to the previously noted range of $170-206.

We also saw a favorable dragonfly doji candle on the daily chart, which indicates a bullish response to today's selloff.

Next week will be important as we should see a risk-on sentiment again for the space sector ahead of the SpaceX IPO.

GLTA and NFA...

[Staudinger @Staudinger333]

@ESPNNBA Prime Kyrie and LeBron. Cavs, no question.

[Staudinger @Staudinger333]

@LakeShowYo This is worse than James Harden's intentional swipe through fouls...

[Staudinger @Staudinger333]

@Jason