Sisyphus

Energy CFO. #EFT. Not investment advice. Views are my own.

[Sisyphus @SisyphusInvest1]

@EnergyCynic "But now we're paying Kayne and Warburg $100MM less for the deal"

[Sisyphus @SisyphusInvest1]

Just priced a billion of equity at a casual 12% discount to Friday's close 😬

[EnergyCynic @EnergyCynic]

The obvious question is why did $MGY let this get built around them the last 3 years for lower values and then feel the need to pay a massive windfall to Wildfire

ShaleBros going to ShaleBro

[Sisyphus @SisyphusInvest1]

Crazy

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Goldman - "As of July 13, a total of over 1.2 million leveraged retail accounts across the Korean market triggered margin calls. Approximately 320,000–360,000 accounts were fully liquidated by brokers. South Korea has an adult population (aged 15–64) of 35.7 million people… i.e. 1 in 30 (3.4%) adults got margin called."

[Invest America | Trump Accounts @InvestAmerica24]

A major upgrade to America's social contract has arrived. 🇺🇸

@TrumpAccounts are live.

Claim your child's account today at https://t.co/vNGI7EQ5N1

[Sisyphus @SisyphusInvest1]

My job is stressful but at least I don’t have penalty kicks

[Sisyphus @SisyphusInvest1]

Heads up @FreddyLA7

[Epic Maps 🗺️ @theepicmap]

Where you're most likely to get a speeding ticket.

[Sisyphus @SisyphusInvest1]

Sell signal when the spam
texts have shifted to IPOs?

[Sisyphus @SisyphusInvest1]

@ShaleTier7 Kimmeridge will be thrilled!

[Sisyphus @SisyphusInvest1]

@ShaleTier7 Newly combined management team really clicking #synergies

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

BREAKING: US total crude inventories fell last week ~17.8 million barrels (that's commercial and SPR stocks combined). On that basis, it's the largest weekly fall since data is available starting in 1982.

[Sisyphus @SisyphusInvest1]

@EnergyCynic @Aubrey___K Residue dry gas is effectively opex

[Sisyphus @SisyphusInvest1]

Zuck added John Arnold (a GOAT gas trader) to the board last year, as they foresaw how access to power will shape the AI race

[Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo]

Meta Pushes Into Power Trading as AI Boom Sends Demand Soaring https://t.co/EsMWswhZwq

[Sisyphus @SisyphusInvest1]

crude bbls < liquids bbls
crude surplus < liquids surplus

[arjun⚡️murti @ArjunNMurti]

Super-Spiked Videopods (EP76): Are Underlying Oil Balances Less Bearish Than Feared? https://t.co/K4w2tL3fAB

Crude oil prices have been far more resilient than most expected in the face of unexpected OPEC quota increases and a seemingly lackluster economic backdrop. Our punchline is that while we agree there is risk of oil price softness in the back-half of this year and early 2026, underlying crude oil S/D balances are not anywhere near as oversupplied as consensus fears. We believe fears of a crash and potential extended bear market are way overdone. We are also gaining confidence that by the time we get to 2H2026 and 2027, oil price risk shifts more meaningfully to the upside.

The main points of difference in our more constructive outlook are:
(1) to disaggregate black crude oil from the more widely reported and followed overall liquids figures; and
(2) to give greater consideration to OPEC Research’s Monthly Oil Market Report versus the more broadly used equivalent report (Oil Market Report) from the IEA.

Over the past month, we have published several posts that have examined the long-term outlook from various macro forecasting agencies, consultants, and oil companies. We conclude OPEC Research leads the pack on being most realistic and pragmatic and was least impacted by “net zero / energy transition” madness of the prior 4-5 years. That doesn’t mean they are necessarily better at short-term S/D balances, but we don’t think they should be entirely dismissed either.

As a reminder, @SuperSpiked and Veriten, our focus is on the long-term outlook for energy markets and companies. We have zero interest in joining the S-T oil price guessing game that the Street and others tend to focus on. But in this case, the prevailing bearish narrative around crude oil is so pronounced and at odds with what we are seeing, we thought it worth commenting.

[Sisyphus @SisyphusInvest1]

@NiceQuarterGuys Dual benefit of expressing gratitude and supporting the energy industry by using 2-3 tokens for the simple "thank you" / "you're welcome" exchange

[Sisyphus @SisyphusInvest1]

4. $400BN of cuts would correspond to 21% cut from 2025 levels. Getting to 20% expense level as a % of GDP would require 75% cuts in All Other.

[Sisyphus @SisyphusInvest1]

1. We’re running a 6% deficit currently. Bessent hopes to get that to 3%, which would require reducing spending to 20% of GDP, absent revenue offsets. He cites in the podcast an 18% spending ideal (Singapore).

[The All-In Podcast @theallinpod]

Treasury Secretary @SecScottBessent lays out Trump's economic plan to the Besties:

-- De-lever the government via cutting spending

-- Shed excess labor from the government

-- Re-lever the private sector by de-regulating the financial system

-- Allow an unshackled private sector to absorb laid off government workers

-- Re-order global trade through tariffs

-- Bring manufacturing jobs back to the US

-- Re-invigorate the middle class

-- Unleash American energy, dropping prices

-- Prices down, real wages up

Thanks to our partners for making the DC trip happen:

@wearehims: https://t.co/AMh4ngrEHo | https://t.co/LNav2Y8k8u

@Gemini: https://t.co/4U7NUkFzaU

@iTrustCapital (use code allin): https://t.co/TyBmNQbZ9Z

[Sisyphus @SisyphusInvest1]

3. The DOGE cuts are mostly focused on “All Other” categories which is about 20% of total expenses. But because entitlements and interest on debt are rising so rapidly, we might need $400BN of cuts just to stay even at a $30TN GDP and 23% spending level, even with $300BN of incremental tariffs. And TBD what amount of GDP deflates from govt cuts and/or is offset by the private sector.

[Sisyphus @SisyphusInvest1]

This business has never made sense to me

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

Exclusive | Sunnova Prepares Restructuring Talks That Could Include Bankruptcy | The recourse debt is not the real problem here. It’s the solar leases themselves, which reside in the ABS. They don’t generate enough cash to satisfy the tax equity. $NOVA https://t.co/oWSYrw1DHp

[Sisyphus @SisyphusInvest1]

Buffett feeling good about his cash pile