SF Bighorn • 大角羊

Tracking AI technology, AI stocks, gpu price & capex trade. Generating tokens from a token factory by consuming tokens.

[SF Bighorn • 大角羊 @SkylineOnTheFly]

Post-election calls.

1. Neoclouds are done for a while. A buildout slowdown kills borrowed money and unpermitted gigawatts first.

2. Hyperscalers win this. Permitted, financed, 80-95% pre-leased capacity just got scarcer. Scarcity is pricing power.

3. Semis don't die, they de-rate. $2.48T of contracted backlog doesn't vanish. The multiple is what bleeds.

4. $NVDA prints a monster quarter on Nov 17. Demand is not the question. The question is whether the pop holds, with December hike odds at ~77%.

5. Iran: watch December. If an authorization bill hits the lame-duck agenda, ground troops stop being a bluff.

[SF Bighorn • 大角羊 @SkylineOnTheFly]

@Abhijit_091 Understand requirements and transform them into prompts to solve problems effectively

[SF Bighorn • 大角羊 @SkylineOnTheFly]

@romankhrupa @liquidai This does not show me how great of progress ai has made, just how far behind it is to human intelligence.

[SF Bighorn • 大角羊 @SkylineOnTheFly]

把 $ANT 的估值之争算成数学题：S-1 没印总股数，但留了钥匙——划给公益基金的 846,840,960 股正好是全面摊薄的 5%，反推发行前约 169.4 亿股、发行后约 178 亿。今晚 Reuters 看到公司发给银行团的副本：$70-80 一股，换算 $1.25-1.42T，要价白纸黑字。几小时后，公司自己撤回，说定价"不准确"。对照：它 10 月内部标记价约 $71.43（约 $1.2T），5 月最后一轮 $965B。买家出价 $1.1-1.3T。一边要 $1.5T，一边往 $1.2T 压，第一个落纸的数字没活过当晚。就看更正版：区间下沿守住 $70，是它顶住了；开在 $60 多，就是买家赢了。

[SF Bighorn • 大角羊 @SkylineOnTheFly]

The math says $ANT wants $1.5T. The buyers are at $1.1-1.3T. Tonight, the company blinked first.

The S-1 never prints a total share count. But it leaves the key: 846,840,960 shares went to its benefit fund, stated as exactly 5% of fully diluted shares. Do the division: ~16.94B shares pre-IPO, ~17.8B after the new stock.

Reuters saw the copy Anthropic sent its bankers tonight: $70-$80 a share. On ~17.8B shares, that's $1.25-1.42T. The ask, in writing.

Hours later, the company emailed the banks again: the pricing was "inaccurate." Retracted.

Reference points: Anthropic's own internal mark in October was ~$71.43 a share, roughly $1.2T. Its May round priced at $965B.

So the fight is $1.5T vs $1.1-1.3T — and the first number the company put on paper didn't survive the night.

Watch the corrected filing. Low end holds $70, they held the line. Opens in the $60s, the buyers won.

[SF Bighorn • 大角羊 @SkylineOnTheFly]

@steph_palazzolo Hackers have found ways to make use of the models.

[SF Bighorn • 大角羊 @SkylineOnTheFly]

周一总结：指数大涨，故事股分化。标普 +2.4%、纳指 +2.7%，四月以来最好的一天，11 个板块全绿。$NVDA -4.3% 收 $178.67、盘中 -8.8%，是全场唯一逆势的大票，记录还是三个零。$AMD +13.3% 收 $508.58——升级、$600 目标价、谷歌 TPU 选 EPYC，三件套。Brent 结算 $92.57，-5.9%，两周跌了 18%，卡塔尔协议传闻无人确认。明天：05:30 PT 的 CPI（这次没有同比数），$CRWV 盘后财报。

[SF Bighorn • 大角羊 @SkylineOnTheFly]

Monday wrap: the index ripped, the story stocks split.

S&P +2.4%, Nasdaq +2.7% — best day since April, all 11 sectors green.

$NVDA -4.3% to $178.67, intraday -8.8%. The only big red name on a day like this — first session trading the board investigation. The record is still 0 charges, 0 findings, 0 sanctions.

$AMD +13.3% to $508.58. Oppenheimer upgrade to Outperform, $600 target — and Google picked EPYC to host its new TPU systems.

Brent settled $92.57, -5.9%, lowest since Aug 31. A reported Qatar-brokered deal that nobody has confirmed. From $113.43 two weeks ago: -18%.

Tomorrow: CPI at 05:30 PT (no YoY number this time), $CRWV after the close.

[SF Bighorn • 大角羊 @SkylineOnTheFly]

@TheGeorgePu The billionaires are lawyer up, how could they not say these?

[SF Bighorn • 大角羊 @SkylineOnTheFly]

@bindureddy look forward to it

[SF Bighorn • 大角羊 @SkylineOnTheFly]

查了两年，官方记录还是三个零。$4.8B 的货经马来西亚转运，商务部在现场发现原封未拆的芯片，Alice Huang 在新加坡被问完就放了——对任何人都没有起诉、没有定性。标题和记录之间的差距，才是这个故事本身。

[SF Bighorn • 大角羊 @SkylineOnTheFly]

Two years of investigation of Jensen Huang. The official record is still three zeros.

$4.8B of $NVDA gear moved through Malaysia. Commerce found chips still sealed in boxes. Alice Huang was questioned in Singapore and released. No charges, no court findings, no sanctions — against anyone.

The gap between the headlines and the record is the story.

Next: Nov 11 Jensen Huang answers Congress · Nov 17 earnings · Nov 18 briefing

[SF Bighorn • 大角羊 @SkylineOnTheFly]

@elonmusk @dogeofficialceo 老马 你

[SF Bighorn • 大角羊 @SkylineOnTheFly]

@eazymoney888 开传票的3个全是GOP，那时候中期选举还没开始

[SF Bighorn • 大角羊 @SkylineOnTheFly]

@jun_song Jensen couldn't care less about smuggle, he just played FAVOR to prioritize one of the customers' demand.

[SF Bighorn • 大角羊 @SkylineOnTheFly]

@Oscarccg3 老黄啊，说你什么好，来美国这么久了口味一点都没变

[SF Bighorn • 大角羊 @SkylineOnTheFly]

1. Smuggle GPUs into China are not spies, there is a massive amount of profit from the market, not from the government. They violate US export laws, they are criminals, not spies.
2. Jensen played favor to prioritize Megaspeed's demand due to his relationship with Alice Huang.
3. The affair is confirmed, and is made a big news by the media because Jensen is the $5 Trillion AI guy.

Somehow the internet conflate them together as if doom's day is coming for $NVDA. Jensen will be fine, good time to buy $NVDA.

[Rohan Paul @rohanpaul_ai]

NYT published a piece on this.

Alice Huang led Megaspeed, a Singapore data center firm that has bought more than $4.8B in Nvidia chips since June 2024.

U.S. officials began surveilling her over a year ago while probing whether Megaspeed helped smuggle restricted AI chips into China, and found her communicating with him.

A classified memo drafted this spring under Secretary of State Marco Rubio said China’s Ministry of State Security recruited her to target him.

[SF Bighorn • 大角羊 @SkylineOnTheFly]

@TaoRay @alanchen 老马那么跳，还是没人敢动老马

[SF Bighorn • 大角羊 @SkylineOnTheFly]

@zyfzyf1997 有时候要的就是那个感觉

[SF Bighorn • 大角羊 @SkylineOnTheFly]

@Hollister_Brad @optionscjp What's confirmed is sex, everything else is your fantasy

[SF Bighorn • 大角羊 @SkylineOnTheFly]

One thing that puzzles me is, at Jensen's case, the US AI war againt China is serious and US must win, selling chips to China is a big deal and must be investigated; when Dems proposed to ban new AI datacenters, ain't they literally helping China to win the AI war? Shouldn't they get investigated?