Morning brief
Is a risk-off stance starting to prevail?
Yesterday provided a clear signal for the short-to medium-term market bias:
Dow Jones higher, S&P flat, NASDAQ lower. In simple terms, capital rotated away from high-beta and growth assets ahead of the next FOMC. If this behavior persists, crypto, as one of the highest beta asset classes, is likely to remain under pressure.
🟢 Market outlook
Today is macro-heavy. From 15:00 to 17:00 ET, markets will digest key data across housing, labor, and soft indicators (Michigan Consumer Sentiment). In addition, multiple FOMC member speeches are scheduled mid-session, increasing the probability of volatility spikes. Patience is critical.
🟢 ETF flows - 8 January
Second consecutive day of notable outflows in BTC and ETH ETFs, while SOL remains an outlier with continued inflows:
🔹BTC: -$398.8m
🔹ETH: -$159.2m
🔹SOL: +$13.6m
These flows suggest institutional de-risking, particularly in BTC and ETH. Expect downside pressure early in the US session, especially if macro prints disappoint.
🟢 Technicals - Daily
🔹BTC
Yesterday, 90,000 was briefly lost but reclaimed on the daily close. The key range remains 90,000-94,000. A loss of 90,000 on a daily close, opens the path toward lower liquidity pockets; acceptance above 94,000 would restore upside momentum.
🔹ETH
Similarly, ETH briefly lost 3,070 but managed to close back above it. This level remains pivotal for short-term directional bias.
🔹SOL
SOL continues to show relative strength but remains trapped within the high-volume node (yellow band). Directional conviction requires a clean breakout.
🟢 Strategy of the day
After testing the lower bounds of the current daily ranges in BTC and ETH, the temptation to front-run longs is understandable, but premature.
Wait for labor-market data and observe how risk assets react during the first hours of the US session.
👉 Remember:
Good labor data = strong economy but lower probability of rate cuts.
Markets have struggled to price this duality consistently.
Let price confirm before committing capital.
Trade with intention, not impulse.
NFA, DYOR ⚡️
#CryptoMarket #BTC #ETH #SOL
Morning brief
Profit taking and continuation, or sentiment shift?
Mixed macro prints once again failed to support risk assets, and risk-off sentiment dominated the US session. The weakness extended into Asia and was amplified by a worse-than-expected print in Japan’s consumer confidence. Crypto, as expected, followed.
🟢 Market outlook
Today’s focus shifts to international trade data (exports, imports, balance of trade) and preliminary labor-market indicators (jobless claims, labor productivity). Once again, the pace will be dictated by macro prints.
Notably, market-implied probabilities for a 25 bps rate cut at the January 28 FOMC are now near cycle lows (~13.3%), reinforcing tighter financial conditions. How today’s data affects those probabilities will be critical for risk assets.
🟢 ETF flows - 7 January
Flows turned decisively mixed, with notable BTC outflows and the first ETH outflows after three consecutive inflow days:
🔹BTC: -$486.1m
🔹ETH: -$98.3m
🔹SOL: +$2.0m
Sustained BTC ETF outflows are likely to increase downside pressure, especially during the early US session.
🟢 Technicals - Daily
🔹BTC
Two key levels remain in focus:
▪️90,000: Daily close below opens the path toward the 80,000 support zone
▪️94,000: Daily close above maintains bullish structure and momentum
🔹ETH
Key level at 3,070. A daily close below exposes the high-volume node near 3,000.
🔹SOL
Still rotating inside the high-volume node (yellow band). Directional bias only emerges with a daily close below 131 or above 147.
🟢 Strategy of the day
Capital preservation remains the priority. Avoid positioning until BTC structure clarifies, and secondarily ETH. Stay flat into the macro releases at 15:30 ET and reassess rate-cut probabilities post-data. One hour after the US open, conditions can be re-evaluated for selective exposure.
Trade with intention, not impulse.
NFA, DYOR ⚡️
#CryptoMarket #BTC #ETH #SOL
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Market Update
The Fed reduced rates at 3.75%, in line with market expectations.
As always, the real volatility engine will be Powell’s press conference at 21:30 EET.
⚠️ No conclusions yet. The market reaction will depend entirely on tone, guidance, and forward projections.
Stay patient. ⚡️
#rates #Powell #FOMC
Is holding altcoins long-term a good strategy… or a terrible one⁉️⁉️
Let’s answer it with data, not emotions.
Using independent research (Messari, IntoTheBlock, CMC/Gecko historical data, and aggregated analyst reviews), here’s what the numbers show as of 2025:
🟢 Altcoin Survival & Performance Metrics (2025)
1️⃣ Altcoins that survive more than 4 years
➤ Only 12-15% of all launched altcoins remain operational after 4 years.
2️⃣ Altcoins priced higher than launch after 2 years
➤ Just 7-10% outperform their launch price at the 2-year mark.
3️⃣ Altcoins priced higher than launch after 5 years
➤ Falls to 4-6% after 5 years.
4️⃣ Altcoins still alive AND ≥50% of launch price after 2 years
➤ Only 3-5% meet this minimum threshold.
⚠️ Key Takeaways
🔹Most altcoins lose a large portion of their value within the first year.
🔹Survivorship is extremely low; outperformance is even rarer.
🔹Projects from the 2017-2020 generation that survived are mostly inside the top 100-200.
🔹Many coins appear “alive” on exchanges but are abandoned or functionally dead.
🟢 So, how many altcoins meet all four criteria above❓
➡️ Approximately 2-3%.
Meaning only 1 in ~40 altcoins ever launched:
🔹Survives 4+ years
🔹Trades higher after 2 years
🔹Trades higher after 5 years
🔹Holds ≥50% of its launch price after 2 years
These are your ETH, LINK, BNB, MATIC, XMR, LTC-type assets. That is, projects with true resilience, not marketing hype.
🟢 Interpretation
A random “buy-and-hold” strategy across all altcoins is mathematically doomed‼️
The odds simply do not work in your favor‼️
But here’s the real question:
If the surviving 2-3% share common characteristics…
can we identify them early⁉️
Well… 🤓
Like, repost, and stay tuned‼️
I’ll share my humble thoughts in the upcoming days‼️
NFA, DYOR and stay safe!! 🤓
Good morning crypto community! ☕️
Yesterday the market played out exactly as expected, fully non-tradable! Japan’s macro prints delivered no surprises. With US markets closed for Thanksgiving, it’s no shock that Asian sessions were flat. As we speak, the Asia Dow is showing marginal losses at -0.17%.
🟢 Market Outlook
🔹Today the US is open for a half-day session, the one immediately following Thanksgiving.
We expect:
•a mild upward drift,
•small intraday moves within the zones discussed in yesterday’s morning post (both BTC & ETH),
•and overall low conviction.
⚠️ In our view, this is the calm before the storm!
Next week we enter December with heavy macro catalysts and all three key events approaching fast:
•FOMC rate decision (Dec 10)
•BoJ rate decision (Dec 19)
•Quadruple options expiration (Dec 26)
🔹On the positive side, we’re seeing a bias shift in USDJPY on the 4h timeframe.
Reminder of the two key levels acting as leading indicators for a potential carry-trade unwind:
•154.0 → High Volume Node (yellow zone)
•152.0 → Bullish Node (green zone)
These levels deserve close attention.
🟢 Strategy for the Day
We continue to stay out of the market.
For those who entered longs near the previous bottom, today is a good day to take partial profits, as better opportunities are likely to come.
NFA, DYOR and stay safe!! 🤓
#CryptoMarket #USDJPY
What Is a “Non-Tradable” Market?
Lately you’ve seen me warn that the market is “non-tradable.”
But what does that actually mean?
In crypto, there are periods where market structure, liquidity, and sentiment break down, creating environments full of unpredictable volatility, fake signals, and asymmetric risk.
Here are the 6 key conditions that define a non-tradable market:
🔴 1. Extremely Low Liquidity
•Order books are thin → small orders move price aggressively.
•Happens on weekends, holidays, or during off-hours.
•Leads to slippage, fake breakouts, unreliable indicators.
🔹Example: Early Sunday UTC. BTC often spikes or dumps on tiny volume.
🔴 2. High Volatility With No Clear Direction
•Sharp up-down “whipsaw” candles.
•Common after big announcements (CPI, FOMC, hacks).
•Emotional order flow dominates; risk/reward becomes terrible.
🔹Example: Bullish rumor pumps that immediately retrace when denied.
🔴 3. Chop / Consolidation Zones
•Price moves sideways in a tight range.
•Volume dies → RSI/MACD produce misleading signals.
•Breakout direction is unclear until real volume comes in.
🔹Tip: Wait for 1.5× average volume to confirm breakouts.
🔴 4. Major Macro or News Pending
•Markets freeze ahead of high-impact events.
•Liquidity is pulled, spreads widen, bots take over.
•Pre-event volatility can be violent, but it’s usually directionless.
🔹Example: Hours before FOMC → meaningless 2-4% swings.
🔴 5. Price vs. Fundamentals Divergence
•On-chain activity drops while price stays inflated.
•Funding rates get extreme (over-leveraged longs or panic shorts).
•These imbalances usually end in sudden corrections.
🔴 6. Market Maker / Bot Manipulation
•Thin-volume assets get pushed around with engineered pumps/dumps.
•Large candles with inconsistent volume → pure algorithmic flow.
Now ask yourself: How many of these key conditions, are we currently meeting during this long weekend? 👀
NFA, DYOR and stay safe!! 🤓
#CryptoMarket #CryptoTrading
Good morning crypto community!
Yesterday, following the weak labor market data (ADP Employment Change), we saw mildly positive sessions across global markets after an initial few hours of volatility, including Asia markets.
The exception was the crypto market, which had already seen a relief rally the previous night. BTC revisited its manipulation zone (blue area), where it bounced, mainly after the Asian markets opened.
Today, several FOMC members will speak, so pay attention to their statements for potential market reactions.
- Shutdown update
Although the Senate passed the bipartisan bill to end the shutdown on Nov 10, we won’t get any official macro data this week.
✅ Senate: Passed
🕒 House: Voting today
💬 President Trump: Ready to sign
💰 Reopening expected by Friday, Nov 15
⚠️ Health care subsidy issue deferred to December
In short, the shutdown is hours away from ending, pending the House vote and the President’s signature.
- ETF Flows (Nov 11)
We saw strong inflows for BTC ETFs yesterday, while outflows continued for ETH ETFs.
BTC: +$524m
ETH: -$107.1m
SOL: +$8m
- Technical (Daily)
BTC: Price bounced from the manipulation zone (blue area). We expect a test of the high-volume node (yellow zone) in the coming days. Depending on the price action there, we’ll position accordingly.
ETH: Needs to reclaim the $3,490-$3,860 zone. If it fails, a visit to the manipulation zone(blue area) becomes likely. We’ll wait for price to approach one of these levels before positioning.
- Tip of the day
Once again, patience! I know it sounds repetitive, but today as well, only scalps make sense!
NFA, DYOR and stay safe! 🤓
#BTC #ETH #CryptoMarket
@DegenClubGR Πόσο σίγουροι είμαστε ότι θέλουμε να φύγει και να μπει κάποιος του τραμπ στη θέση του; φοβάμαι τρελό manipulation αν πάρει και τη fed... Όχι;
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