Andrew Tomlinson

Contrarian investor. Housing finance enthusiast. Nothing I say is investment advice. Rt's ≠ endorsement

[Andrew Tomlinson @SleipnirPerkins]

Updated $uwmc

[Andrew Tomlinson @SleipnirPerkins]

@jimdelisle @kuwlness @NewsLambert @pulte I think Bessent is on board.

[ズüωﾚภΞነነ @kuwlness]

@NewsLambert @pulte Why isn't he (as Director of the FHFA) having the GSEs buy & retain MBS until the 10-year UST & 30-year FRM spread is closer to 150-170bps? It would surely help homebuyers!

[Andrew Tomlinson @SleipnirPerkins]

@pulte

[Dorsia @seaurchincevice]

@pulte @pulte why not let the GSEs perform their function of keep spreads tight and expand their MBS retained portfolios? Also would be a huge income generator and help the overall market plumbing.

[Porter Collins @Seawolfcap]

One thing we haven't see from Google is the intricate web of ponzi type deals unlike all the other AI players.

[Rob Zimmer @RobTVDC]

For better markets and a potential higher return for taxpayer investment in $fnma and $fmcc, @fhfa should direct the GSEs to examine the viability of their own credit score subsidiaries, which could be sold off once viable.

The GSEs have the data and metrics to help this market!

[Rob Zimmer @RobTVDC]

So @jimcramer has 0 clue re: what is a monopoly. “Some say $FICO is a monopoly”??

With 90%+ market share in mort credit scores & unilateral power to raise prices 700% in 30 mos w/o losing ANY market share, it’s the very DEFINITION of a monopoly.

https://t.co/rxUpIS9Hee

@pulte

[Rob Zimmer @RobTVDC]

Quoting a meaningless CBO report here seems odd. CBO is the referee of Congressional legislation but there is NONE here. For executive branch actions, OMB is the ref and release will generate at least $250B profit.

Question: will it go for starter home supply financing?

[Logan Mohtashami @LoganMohtashami]

So if this continues we don't even need the 10-year yield below 4% to get near 6% rates

[Andrew Tomlinson @SleipnirPerkins]

@zerohedge I guess the war isn't going too well?

[Andrew Tomlinson @SleipnirPerkins]

Money follows success. $UWMC

[Andrew Tomlinson @SleipnirPerkins]

Updated $uwmc

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

The Democratic Party crushed all opposition during the primary with behind-the-scenes arm twisting and threats to discourage potential candidates from running, legal challenges to prevent NoLabels, @deanbphillips, @RobertKennedyJr and others from getting on the ballot in many states, and unprecedented limitations on the recent debate (which enabled the exclusion of @RobertKennedyJr) to limit the possibility of a third-party candidate successfully running for president.

The Party’s approach was based on the premise that Biden could beat Trump. Even when it was clear that Biden’s health had deteriorated and the polls were turning against him, the Party continued to move full speed ahead with its plan until last Thursday when Biden’s impairment was for all the world to see.

Now that it is untenable for Biden to be the candidate, the Democratic Party is working all angles to get @POTUS Biden to step aside so that a favored replacement can be anointed by the Party elders/big donors etc.

Once again the Democratic Party is making a catastrophic and highly undemocratic mistake.

In order to have a chance of redemption, the Party should:

Launch an open primary where candidates who meet certain sensible national recognition criteria can run. The criteria could include

(1) being a current or former senator, congressman, governor, senior military and/or business leader

(2) having a proven capability of raising or investing X dollars in their campaign,

(3) having more than X social media followers,

and/or other evidence of national name recognition/credibility.

Then each week for the next six weeks before the convention, launch a series of debates among the candidates where the field is narrrowed based upon reasonable measures of popular support for each candidate.

Narrow the field to two candidates by the week of August 12th and then have multiple final debates during the week of the 12th on different issues until a clear candidate emerges. That candidate can be anointed formally at the convention on August 19th. Then the Party would put its fundraising resources behind the candidate and a real contest could emerge by the time of the election.

The above approach would of course be a truly democratic process where the American people get to choose the candidate rather than a self-selected elite group of party members who to date have done more to destroy the Democratic Party and democracy than anyone else in our nearly 250-year history.

Because of the circumstances of the current state of our presidential election, this could be a unique opportunity for a first class candidate to emerge.

I am often asked by friends from other countries why the U.S. doesn’t field better candidates for the most important job in the land. The answer in part relates to how much of one’s life one needs to commit to the challenge without knowing about the potential outcome.

Consider that the above democratic approach would require a maximum of a six-week commitment of time before a potential candidate would know they won or lost the nomination compared with the typical two-year life commitment to consider a run. I expect that the reduced time commitment and the open nature of the field will attract a much higher quality pool of candidates than we have had in decades.

The only explanation one can glean from the Party-elite-pick-the-candidate-approach is that they care more about maintaining control over the Party and our democracy rather than what is best for our country and our citizens. Shame on them.

What do you think of this approach?

If you like this idea, please make your views known to the powers that be.

I have very little if any sway in the Democratic Party as you might expect based on my recent advocacy.

[Alphabetting @wintermoat]

"I think that this keynote was by far the most impressive presentation Google has made in the AI era" $goog

https://t.co/k88thvNICB

[Waymo @Waymo]

Thanks for the shout-out, Tim, and for sharing your experience riding in our newly expanded territory! #WaymoxLA 🤖🚘🌴

[Waymo @Waymo]

We’re grateful to the @californiapuc for this vote of confidence in our operations, which paves the way for the deployment of our commercial Waymo One service in LA and the SF Peninsula.

[Andrew Tomlinson @SleipnirPerkins]

$googl

[Mike Simonsen 🐉 @mikesimonsen]

Waymo is my preferred way to ride around SF now. It’s essentially flawless. Dramatically better than human drivers. Especially better than rando Uber drivers.

My take on Tesla goes like this:
LiDAR is obviously better. Millimeter precision for a long way in every direction. There is no way visual-only can ever be as good.

LiDAR is more expensive of course, so Tesla doesn’t want to spend the money.
Tesla’s FSD works pretty well, and are improving. but obviously teslas cannot do what the waymos do. Not even close. Waymo is literally like magic.

So it’s a race between faster computer vision processing for Tesla and the cost reduction/miniaturization of LiDAR. Both are happening.

But, here’s my guess, even as Tesla improves and gets finally to “good enough” the data and cost on the LiDAR systems will be improving too. Costs come down, but the data is always better. So i suspect regulators will look at both, and always be compelled to allow only the one that is obviously safer. And we’ll end up with actual self driving requires LiDAR.

[Sheel Mohnot @pitdesi]

Apple is a real bully. Apple + Maximo met for partnership/acquisition talks but Apple had a secret plan (Project Everest) to steal the tech without paying. They even recruited 20 of Masimo’s team, doubling their salaries…. Apple paid their CTO $4M to come over, and in his 1st 2 weeks he filed 12 patents for sensors at Apple that were Masimo trade secrets… the worst part is that Apple fumbled the ball and the product doesn’t really work and Apple didn’t get FDA approval like Masimo did.

Joe Kiani, the immigrant electrical engineer CEO of Masimo seems to be fighting this as a vendetta - he’s spent >$60M fighting Apple so far & preliminarily seems to have won… most companies would not keep fighting.

[Andrew Tomlinson @SleipnirPerkins]

@UWMlending never stopped growing share over the last year. Refi volume should be very impressive. $UWMC

[Andrew Tomlinson @SleipnirPerkins]

The mortgage origination market is restructuring and few seem to notice.
"Achieved 11% share of the overall mortgage market and 54% share of the wholesale channel for 4Q22"
$UWMC

[Andrew Tomlinson @SleipnirPerkins]

Big thanks to whomever was blowing out of $UWMC warrants at .13 two weeks ago.

[Lance Lambert @NewsLambert]

3.4% of U.S. single family homes are owned by operators with 10 or more units, calculates @ParclLabs