SM Research Lab

Deep dives | Catalysts | Asymmetry.

Everything posted is NFA.

[SM Research Lab @SmResearchLab]

https://t.co/z7wLHh3EwI

[SM Research Lab @SmResearchLab]

@italianinvesto @TopStockAlerts1

[SM Research Lab @SmResearchLab]

@0xRiver8

[SM Research Lab @SmResearchLab]

$GAP earnings summary:

+12% after-hours!

Good:

• GAP comp +10% for the 2nd straight quarter
• FY26 EPS guide raised to $2.35–2.45
• Q3 sales guided +1.5–2.5%
• Merchandise margin +80bps ex-tariffs

Bad:

• Old Navy comp -4%
• GAP Inc. comp -1%
• Revenue $3.65B vs ~$3.70B est.
• Old Navy FY comp guide cut

Thesis scorecard:

GAP momentum ✓
Margin expansion ✓
Old Navy beat ✗

2/3.

Congrats to those who bought!

Part 2 tomorrow: what I got right, what I got wrong & what earnings changed.

[SM Research Lab @SmResearchLab]

https://t.co/z7wLHh3EwI

[SM Research Lab @SmResearchLab]

$GAP IT!

[SM Research Lab @SmResearchLab]

https://t.co/z7wLHh3EwI

[SM Research Lab @SmResearchLab]

One thing I want to reiterate ahead of $GAP earnings tomorrow:

Tomorrow is not the inflection point of the thesis.

Q2 is the first read-through. The real test is whether the Gap-brand momentum and cultural catalysts translate into Q3/Q4 earnings, margins and customer demand.

Expect volatility and size the position accordingly. Don’t turn a multi-quarter thesis into a binary earnings bet.

If we get an $ANF reaction, great. But the thesis is bigger than tomorrow.

I’ll be posting a Part 2 covering the earnings, what we learnt, and whether anything has changed in the thesis.

[SM Research Lab @SmResearchLab]

https://t.co/z7wLHh3EwI

[SM Research Lab @SmResearchLab]

My first article for SM Research Lab.

I’ve spent weeks digging into the $GAP turnaround, the $VSXY / $AEO precedents, the cultural catalysts and, most importantly, whether the attention can actually translate into earnings.

Earnings tomorrow are the first checkpoint. I’ll be watching closely, and obviously it’d be nice to see an $ANF style reaction, but tomorrow does not decide the thesis.

This is a multi-quarter thesis. Q2 is the first read-through; Q3/Q4 are where Hailey Bieber, KATSEYE and Inde have more time to show up in the numbers.

The valuation is what makes me particularly interested:

• $28.47 at just 9x FY29E EPS
• ~$37.96 at 12x
• ~$55.70 in my Bull Case
• ~87% probability-weighted upside

The Bull Case is not based on some insane multiple, it’s sustained Gap-brand momentum, faster Old Navy stabilisation, recovery in the smaller brands and stronger full-price demand driving operating leverage.

Tomorrow is the checkpoint. The thesis is the next few quarters.

My first full thesis below. ↓

[SM Research Lab @SmResearchLab]

https://t.co/z7wLHh3EwI

[SM Research Lab @SmResearchLab]

@OracleNYSE If anyone is interested 👇👇

https://t.co/F51Gj0wGFx

[SM Research Lab @SmResearchLab]

https://t.co/z7wLHh3EwI

[SM Research Lab @SmResearchLab]

@rk8215 @ShitcoinMaxi_ 🫶

[SM Research Lab @SmResearchLab]

@mkfilko @ShitcoinMaxi_ Thank you leki!

[leki ⚔️ @mkfilko]

This was a really enjoyable and easy read put out by @SmResearchLab (or @ShitcoinMaxi_) on $GAP. He gives quite a compelling thesis on why this may be the next $VSXY or $ANF.

I personally do not have a position. Perhaps you may want to take a position as an earnings play tomorrow after reading the article.

Also, go give @SmResearchLab a follow! Can't wait to see what else he puts out.

[SM Research Lab @SmResearchLab]

@benbonning Thank you!

[SM Research Lab @SmResearchLab]

@rahmbotrades Thank you Rahmbo!

[SM Research Lab @SmResearchLab]

Welcome to SM Research Labs.

I’m in my early 20s and have been passionate about markets since I started trading equities at 14. I eventually moved into crypto, where I was fortunate enough to make some good money. I now focus primarily on equities, with an emphasis on fundamental research, valuation and building proper investment theses.

I started this account to document that process in a more formal way, learning as I go, improving with every thesis, and building a portfolio of my work that I can look back on years from now.

Appreciate everyone who comes along for the journey.

[SM @ShitcoinMaxi_]

Started @SmResearchLab

This account will stay for the shitposts + ideas, while the new account will be purely for investment theses and longer-form research.

I want it to serve as a portfolio of my work and a personal scorecard, somewhere I can learn as I go, continuously improve, track my thinking over time, and look back years from now to see how I’ve developed as an investor.

Appreciate everyone who follows along.

First deep dive coming soon. $GAP