SmallCapLab.com

Small-cap analytics, regime scoring, dilution research, borrow rate portal, and systematic short-side strategies.

[SmallCapLab.com @Small_Cap_Lab]

@TheoryTrading Ask me harder

[SmallCapLab.com @Small_Cap_Lab]

Average locate cost today was 0.50% of share price, but HTB Twitter will fearmonger that the game is over because borrow is "too expensive." Silly rabbits.

[SmallCapLab.com @Small_Cap_Lab]

@SmallCapSmarts I've never noticed a correlation between borrow availability/cost and fade or squeeze, if so, that's an easy long when its not. My average locate cost this week has been like 1.5%

[SmallCapLab.com @Small_Cap_Lab]

@MookTrader 🙏

[SmallCapLab.com @Small_Cap_Lab]

@kansai_89 🔥🔥🔥

[SmallCapLab.com @Small_Cap_Lab]

Premarket high timing... Basketing all premarket stocks with volume and a 30%+ high:
- 52% put in their high by 8am.
- 84% by 9am
- and the average time from the start of the move to premarket high is 63 minutes...

Pretty interesting stuff...

$GPUS, $GXAI, $BJDX, $LOBO, $QUCY, $SBFM, $LASE, $VSA, $ZJYL, $STAK ...

[SmallCapLab.com @Small_Cap_Lab]

@quantmindset @jimmysharmaLAD @SmallCapSmarts OPB loves Martin

[SmallCapLab.com @Small_Cap_Lab]

@hackertrader @indiecatta Niv, do you really not understand that you should avoid locating when costs exceed expectancy?

If your gross edge is 12% and fee drag is 4% (high), your net edge is 8%. Anyone that doesn’t understand this shouldn’t be trading.

[SmallCapLab.com @Small_Cap_Lab]

People only get worried about data when it starts confirming something they'd rather keep to themselves... Maybe the HTB mob will be showing up at my door next.

[Apathetic Trader @ApatheticTrader]

"Hi guys!

I ran some risk analysis and it is far less risky for me to sell you my services and "interesting" data than it is for me to risk any real and meaningful capital by actually trading.

So, I'll share "interesting" things with you to bait you to my site where you can subscribe to my monthly insight!"

Avoid these sorts of people like the plague. They are parasites to any system who grift from the seats in the audience and don't have the balls to take up the sword in the arena.

I'd never knock all people who sell services. There are real ones who put their money where their mouth is, while also making some money from an adjacent service biz. No problem with them, but vast majority are grifters looking for the safer and more durable revenue of monthly sub dollars.

[SmallCapLab.com @Small_Cap_Lab]

As disclosed, if locate costs are equal to or exceed edge %, avoid. That has always been a hard constraint. Yes, I have concerns about the recent increase in locate pricing, but I don’t believe it’s permanent, and it doesn’t change that rule. These are high-frequency strategies to bring with. An execute less environment.

As long as the presence of structurally weak small caps exists, these setups will exist. If I revise the strategy(s) at all to account for future changes, buyers will be transparently updated.

[SmallCapLab.com @Small_Cap_Lab]

@indiecatta I do and have for nearly 6 years now, and have yet to see any effect. You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make it drink.

[SmallCapLab.com @Small_Cap_Lab]

Stifler, you have a damaged soul, and I hope you are okay.

1) We are talking about yesterday premarket and intraday. Who hurt you?
2) I did say ABTS was China.
3) Country of origin is certainly the proper way to easily generate a bucket. Chinese-sounding executives is not, but keep doing that. Hope your China longs work out.

[SmallCapLab.com @Small_Cap_Lab]

The negativity surrounding small caps has always been bad, but it's at an all-time high. A few from traders I respect.

What’s interesting is that there still aren’t many clear metric shifts that would indicate a structural change. Avg HOD spikes, avg collapse %, number of multi-day moves, gappers, intraday runners… all of it still looks like normal ebb and flow. Will it stay that way? I believe so.

A lot of this feels more like narrative than data. In time, either some of these takes get deleted, or people just remember the trades that didn't work.

[Apathetic Trader @ApatheticTrader]

This behavior is comical...

If starting out, I don't think I'd look to shorting small caps any longer. I'm about to declare the glory days for shorts finally dead.

Some hope that the 4th could alter the meta, but the current regime just doesn't favor the short side.

It may tease with some bursts of profit that give hope before it is destroyed by relentless squeezes and non existent fades.

$HKIT

[SmallCapLab.com @Small_Cap_Lab]

Yesterday, we had $TGHL, Singapore. $SOUR, USA. $HKIT, China. $HUBC, Israel. $OPTU, USA. $GNTA, Italy. $ANY, USA. $ABTS, China. $MASK, China. $NAMM, Cayman Islands. $AIM, USA. $DBGI, USA. $FOFO, China. $JZ, China. $JZXN, China.

15 plays, 40% were China. Much higher than usual, but not 95%.

[SmallCapLab.com @Small_Cap_Lab]

@jimmysharmaLAD I don’t, I simply determine an entry that averages out to being better than open.

[SmallCapLab.com @Small_Cap_Lab]

$HKIT and $ABTS gapped overnight, but now down 50%+ from their PM highs... Short? Long? Add? Cover? Avoid? Based on the 100 prior examples: 70% closed below the open, avg −28.5% from open to close. When they squeeze though, they squeeze hard.

https://t.co/uBn0TdCWMq

[SmallCapLab.com @Small_Cap_Lab]

@RetiredTrader_ Well, this would be a tilt, sizing, and stop pulling issue, not an edge erosion issue. We have all been there, no doubt, but you can hurt yourself just as bad via fighting large caps.

[SmallCapLab.com @Small_Cap_Lab]

@JVDXBTRD Totally agree. But this will be a short-term issue. As you are aware, you simply avoid the setups that have locate costs exceeding edge %. Are people really that upset with taking 6 trades per day instead of 12? That doesn’t mean the edge is gone or small caps are ruined.

[SmallCapLab.com @Small_Cap_Lab]

@TheoryTrading

[SmallCapLab.com @Small_Cap_Lab]

@SmallCapSmarts Well, what metrics do you want…? And are we really considering OPB top tier…

Intraday breakdowns are working very well for me, and gappers aren’t screaming avoid.