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$SIVE: "Intent to complete the [NASDAQ] listing process over the next few quarters"
This statement was largely missed by many screeners.
Very material improvement from evaluation, to formal confirmation of timelines.
Reflections from a Seven-Year Shareholder: Why Sivers Semiconductors / $SIVE Was Always Destined for Greatness
After nearly seven years as a shareholder in Sivers Semiconductors, I have watched this company evolve from an overlooked Swedish deeptech player into a force at the intersection of photonics, wireless communications, AI infrastructure, and strategic defense technologies. The recent surge in the share price is not a surprise to those of us who have followed the story closely it is the logical unfolding of a thesis many of us articulated years ago when few were listening.
From the moment I first dug into the company, its potential felt enormous and profoundly underappreciated. The technology advanced lasers for co-packaged optics in AI data centers, beamforming ICs for 5G/6G and SATCOM, and full-duplex arrays for electronic warfare sits at the heart of multiple secular megatrends. Yet for years, the market fixated on quarterly losses, development costs, and execution risks while largely ignoring the customer pipeline, partnerships, and technological edge.
Where Unicorns Are Born
This is how real winners emerge. History is clear: transformative companies are rarely discovered in consensus comfort zones. They are unearthed where sentiment is exhausted, where weak hands have capitulated, and where the narrative is dominated by skepticism. Sivers spent years in that crucible not for the faint-hearted.
You had to immerse yourself in the details: the photonics platform’s unique indium phosphide capabilities and its work with hyperscalers, AI data center players, $AAPL (sensing) and Win Semiconductors, along with key partners such as Jabil and GlobalFoundries; the wireless division’s tier-1 engagements with names like Nokia, BAE Systems, SATCOM operators and the U.S. government itself. Companies and institutions of that caliber do not collaborate, co-develop, or plan multi-year programs with you unless there is real substance and a clear path forward. That, for me, is the only validation you truly need. Add to that the expanding opportunity pipeline now approaching $800 million and strategic validations like repeat US CHIPS Act funding, and the picture becomes very clear.
Bears and headline-chasers thrive on the opposite approach. Swedish media have produced more than 50 negative articles in recent times the positive ones you can count on one hand. It is a witch hunt. They obsessively highlight risk, risk, risk, with almost no mention of the enormous potential. How can anyone take them seriously? They have no skin in the game. If they could invest successfully, they wouldn’t be working for newspapers. They pretend to be all-knowing, but the truth is no one knows exactly where technology and the market are heading. After two decades working with IT companies large and small I understand both the tech and the market. That is why I am bullish, and why this development does not surprise me.
The same goes for the short sellers. One recent 43-page “analysis” packed with incorrect assumptions and misinformation was clearly designed to create fear and doubt. I could refute every single point, but why give them more oxygen? Notably, they don’t even dare to hold a meaningful disclosed short position. That is weaker than their analysis. I put real money on the table and take real risk. Please increase your shorts. I am waiting for you to go under.
Leadership and Shareholder Transitions: A Healthy Reset
Some former insiders and larger holders have exited. I am not surprised I am relieved. They did not deserve to be part of the journey that is now unfolding, a journey that is still far from over.
Erik Fällström and his associates supported the company for many years, and for that we are grateful. But the attempts to extract personal gain crossed a line most notably trying to spin off the photonics division into a SPAC where he (via Achilles Capital / DDM) was a major sponsor, at what looked like bargain terms. The chairman and new CEO rightly put a stop to it. Shortly after, the selling began. He sold the majority of his holdings around 4 SEK. Karma is real. In parallel, Achilles Capital and its parent DDM Finance have been forced to apply for corporate reconstruction due to massive debt issues. The contrast between opportunism and long-term conviction could not be clearer.
Harish Krishnaswamy came in via the MixComm acquisition. I will not lie I like Harish. He is technically strong and has an excellent network that helped land key development agreements, including CHIPS Act wins. At the same time, I am not surprised he is selling. He has sold multiple times before, often at 4–8 SEK levels. This latest sale seems to be his chance to redeem all the earlier exits at much lower prices a kind of psychological average to finally make it feel better. Am I happy about it? No. But this is the same person who, several times right after Sivers secured major agreements, sold and killed the momentum, or sold when tax bills came due. As one of the founders, I think he simply wanted to feel that his years at MixComm finally delivered something tangible. This was the last time, and frankly, it feels damn good.
Funds that fully exited did so because they operate under strict risk mandates and manage other people’s money. That is natural and not a negative signal.
These departures represent a healthy cleansing. The right people and the right long-term capital are now aligned for the next phase.
The Path Forward
No one has a crystal ball. No one knows exactly how large the Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) market will ultimately become. But I genuinely believe people will be shocked by the speed and momentum once it really starts ramping. The combination of exploding AI compute demand, power constraints in data centers, and Sivers’ differentiated indium phosphide laser platform positions the company at the center of one of the most important technology shifts of this decade.
The current momentum validates what patient shareholders have long seen. Product ramps, pipeline conversion, CHIPS Act milestones, and potential US dual-listing preparations are tangible progress. Volatility will remain; bears will resurface. But conviction built on deep research outlasts noise.
To newer investors: Do your own work. Ignore the echo chamber of fear. Build your own mosaic from primary sources. True edges come from independent thinking. The easy path is skepticism and short-termism. The harder, more rewarding one is sustained belief grounded in analysis.
Sivers was never a quick flip. It was and remains a multi-year compounder for those willing to look beyond the noise. The diamond was always there for those with the eyes to see it. The journey is far from over, and the best chapters are still ahead.
Stay bullish. Stay informed. And above all, trust the work you’ve done.
OFC I'm aware. But I'm personally sleeping comfortably since I have conviction in my hyperscaler mapping research with $SIVE.
And yes, I still have my million+ share position.
Not sure if people realize this: but I'm only here to share my thoughts/ideas.
I don't control market volatility, what decisions you all make, or how markets react to new information synthesis.
It's much safer for analysts to just reactively tag along Morgan Stanley/JP Morgan/Goldman Sachs research whenever it's created and just summarize.
Rather than coming up with new ideas from OSINT mapping and waiting them get validated.
Because when you discover a new angle:
Everyone keeps heatedly debating topics of 4-6 inch InP fabs, employee count, who their hyperscaler customers are, volume ramp timelines, etc to try and play devils advocate with a thesis.
Then actively monitoring every single 5-20% price movement.
I'm forced to stay on this topic more since it's less validated + there's always heated discussions. Just like $EWY in Feb, which I did memory projections on + Helium/LNG/Oil analysis.
But months later everyone sees memory looks structural with Micron's 16+ LTAs and LNG isn't taking down SK Hynix margins.
Or $NBIS from last year in terms of sum-of-parts / dilution structures vs $IREN.
And now it's close to ATHs and listed on $QQQ.
I'm personally just waiting Sivers to volume ramp in 2027 + listing on NASDAQ to support their M&A efforts.
So they can walk down the same path as $LITE when they scaled from $3B to $60B+.
$SPCX / Elon Musk acquires Mesh, an optical networking startup.
Which is working on 1.6T OSFP (pluggable).
It’s seems they own the optical engine/packaging side of things, but likely sources CW DFB lasers off merchant companies.
$SIVE is one of the more startup friendly plausible merchant suppliers as seen with Ayar to $POET?
Maybe $LITE and $MTSI that were have a little history too, but less so.
Regardless it’s very positive a lot of startups recently like Celestial have been acquired by Marvell.
For both merchant laser supplier revenue (working with startups -> having hyperscalers like SpaceX drive revenue after being designed in already).
As well as valuations from M&A desirability.
Goes to show how optical interconnects is the right direction if Elon Musk is directly buying these companies.
Just as a recap, these were all my core European longs:
1. $SIVE
2. $LPK
3. $SOI
4. $RPI
5. $IQE
6. $ALRIB
7. $XFAB
Sivers: As you know by now, core laser chokepoint over next generation photonics, from 1.6T pluggables to CPO.
Embedded in many hyperscaler suppliers from Jabil to Ayar. Should go brrr 2027 but markets are forward looking, so ramps + qualifications should get priced in now.
LPK Laser - Glass core substrate "monopoly" with LIDE.
"More than 80% of major global players have selected our equipment for process validation, learning and scaling to mass production"
Soitec - Silicon photonics SoI substrate pure monopoly while coming out of legacy drag segments.
Raspberry Pi - Was my fun idea around Raspberry Pis being used for AI hardware deployments.
Previously this thing was mainly educational or hobby boards, but now used for edge/local AI. Just thought revenue increase would be extremely material and it played out well.
IQE - Critical epiwafer player for your Western photonics like Macom, Tower, Lumentum, and others.
Was kinda going under, but thought their latent capacity relative to Landmark was undervalued.
Also given how important it was, I thought that your downstream players + Govs wouldn't let it go under, so it was more of a moonshot idea earlier in the year.
Lot more derisked now, very important.
Riber - Kinda monopoly in the MBE space, exposure to Quantum / quantum dot + silicon photonics.
Found out from OSINT help from a friend latentvalue that Microsoft Quantum was buying their machines, so this was direct hyperscaler validation + kinda de-risked at current MCs.
XFab - SiC foundry backed by EU/US CHIPS Act with power semi upside. (152% Y/Y growth for their sic vertical).
Main growth was their silicon photonics foundry past 2027 that's getting evaled by nvidia. And that they're leading Europe's value chain efforts in photonics, kinda like an early tower semi.
We'll see how this plays out, thought power semi exposure + low P/B would derisk the company until they scale their photbunchonics efforts.
From my own personal thoughts:
Out of the maybe $SOI has already been re-rated the most? But I'm holding anyway.
$LPK and $ALRIB I think are still undervalued despite their monopolies.
$RPI is just kinda seeing how things go at this point, would be hilarious if they ended up like a mini nvidia for low end edge ai.
$IQE probably has a long way to go given new tower long term agreement, alongside macom. And if they convert latent capacity, I still think it has a chance of rerating like landmark.
$XFAB idk if im missing something or are markets missing something. you have nvidia as a direct eval of their silicon photonics foundry, and it's trading below replacement P/B. i think im right though.
$SIVE I see has the highest upside out of all of them given laser company ability to vertically integrate, acquire companies downstream to make their lasers more valuable, etc. Just like coherent/lumentum.
There's like 1-2 more random ones that aren't really material, but just in general.
These are the ones I've liked the most.
$YSS Ships T1TL Satellites to Launch Site – Major Indirect Win for $SIVE
Great news for York Space Systems, yesterday they announced the initial shipment of their second production lot of T1TL spacecraft to the launch site.
More than 20 York-built satellites are scheduled to launch this summer on a dedicated SpaceX Falcon 9.
While the headlines focus entirely on York, smart money is looking at the hidden supply chain winner is $SIVE.
Earlier this year, York Space Systems expanded its vertical integration by acquiring https://t.co/t81UZsAUvd, a leader in next-generation multi-orbit ground terminals.
Sivers Semiconductors is the single-source, exclusive supplier of critical Ka-band mmWave chips embedded inside https://t.co/t81UZsAUvd's revolutionary Hydra terminals.
As York rapidly deploys its massive Tranche 1 Transport Layer (T1TL) satellite constellation for the U.S. Space Development Agency, the demand for high-performance ground infrastructure scales in lockstep.
More operational satellites in orbit directly dictate the mass deployment of https://t.co/t81UZsAUvd ground stations.
York’s flawless execution and strong defense contract revenue guarantee the financial backing needed to rapidly accelerate the production ramp-up of https://t.co/t81UZsAUvd terminals.
Every satellite York sends into orbit strengthens the ecosystem for https://t.co/t81UZsAUvd ground terminals.
Since $SIVE hardware is hardcoded into these terminal architectures for U.S. defense applications, York's blockbuster summer launch is highly bullish for Sivers' long-term Satcom revenue pipeline.