Smoke the Books

Hedge Fund Manager building sports betting models. Nothing to sell. Free sports back testing software at link below. Don’t bet the rent money people!

[Smoke the Books @SmokeTheBooks]

@PlusEVAnalytics No, but the spam is ridiculous. There has to be a better way. Even app vs api identifier and I think retail would get better pricing rapidly

[Smoke the Books @SmokeTheBooks]

@EventWavesIO Did they put user_id back in the request?

[Smoke the Books @SmokeTheBooks]

@AmberGambling @goldenpants013 Depends on the exchange but Kalshi is 30/sec and penalties are small

[Smoke the Books @SmokeTheBooks]

@yElff_ @spacesrecap_ Elf the actuary and an actual sharp gambler is hosting Sean Perry and boxing dudes. So good

[Smoke the Books @SmokeTheBooks]

@BetsRiggs It’s college extra games to NFL. The process is a lot… maybe 10 hours a week for me and 40-50 for an employee for 4 years. A lot of it is trying to think of things that are overlooked by sim models and validating.

[Smoke the Books @SmokeTheBooks]

My CLV vs my actual ROI. Something I used to try to be careful about, with the goal always being EV without CLV. About 98% of my bets are mainlines and very few props. With the exchanges, it doesn’t really matter anymore. Maybe 1/4th of my bets have been tracked on Pikkit, but the point (and the numbers) remains the same… these exchanges are wonderful (for now but not forever). All recreational bettors should be using them too. I’m somewhat sensitive to problem gambling, as I’ve seen it ruin lives. But the actual cost of a $100 straight bet on tonight’s game at -104 is about $2. If used correctly, it’s really cheap entertainment. It’s $200 to take my family to the movies and $600 to take them to fuxking Benihana. That’s a lot more than $2.

[Smoke the Books @SmokeTheBooks]

@BetsRiggs It’s public, you can look through all the bets

[Smoke the Books @SmokeTheBooks]

@RoxyLasVegas @chinamaniac @Birdy_Bets History is written by the victors

[Smoke the Books @SmokeTheBooks]

@BigBuckHunterrr so badass

[Smoke the Books @SmokeTheBooks]

@j__fort Congrats to you all. Incredible.

[Smoke the Books @SmokeTheBooks]

@LMastro99 @Kalshi I will never write "are eff que" on any public website, but it is going to be the death of me

[Smoke the Books @SmokeTheBooks]

Polymarket vs Kalshi resolution issues…

[Smoke the Books @SmokeTheBooks]

This is a good point, but I still contend there’s something here. Look through great pikkit profiles and it’s almost all “tricks” and top down steam chasing. But there are account in there that beat mainlines at the close. Might be 1-2% but they do. I know a few other guys that can do this over huge sample sizes. Recently I’ve been playing with top down on exchanges and I think it’s boring. But I still think there’s a copycat method in here. Today I saw $95k offered at an arb on Kalshi on a college extra game…

[Captain Jack Andrews @capjack2000]

I'm not sure why people are ignoring the flaw in the data from @juice_reel here.

The data Juice Reel gathers comes from their users tracking their bets on their site. Sportsbooks have been around longer than Juice Reel. PM's have not.

Anytime you try something new, you are likely to be influenced by small sample size. Lose your first two bets, or 7 of your first 10, and you might sour on the product and quit.😖

When you do that it's as if you're gambling with a ridiculously small bankroll. Your risk-of-ruin is high. You skew the overall results. Nobody wins their first two bets and says "I'm done."🙅‍♂️

Happens all the time at both regulated books and PM's. If a sportsbook stepped up and provided that data (they won't), their numbers would look similar.📊

Meanwhile the bettors that have that same experience on regulated sportsbooks didn't track that on Juice Reel because in order to even want to USE Juice Reel they were already "established" enough to even want to track their bets. 🧐

In other words, break out that WWII bomber plane pic, this is Survivorship Bias. You're seeing an outsized number of data points of people who have a small sample size influenced by results.✈️

You could also add that the frictionless nature of the Robinhood integration gets a lot more people "giving it a try" than other platforms with higher barriers to entry. They are also more likely to be influenced by results.🤔

[Smoke the Books @SmokeTheBooks]

This is a great podcast. Total gift that you can listen to @LMastro99 talk simulation models for so long.

[GoldenPants13 @goldenpants013]

Spotify: https://t.co/0clI3pBNHY
Apple: https://t.co/kPAveVkBtv

[Smoke the Books @SmokeTheBooks]

Anyone have or know a data source for historic NFL play by play that includes defensive formation?

[Smoke the Books @SmokeTheBooks]

@TOleafsfan @EthanAz_ @BookieBeats1 Not necessarily, but it certainly gives me pause to fill that order. These exchanges give a lot of new info for top down guys to use and could definitely become a better source of truth, to an extent, but they’re still anchored to the big books’ lines.

[Smoke the Books @SmokeTheBooks]

This is very slick software from @EthanAz_ and @BookieBeats1. Also, some guy/firm with $11.6k order on Texas State / Grambling total at Kalshi is probably not dumb money.

[Smoke the Books @SmokeTheBooks]

@BetHorses1 $60k

[Smoke the Books @SmokeTheBooks]

What is Hard Rock doing? They just lowered Joshua from -750 to -700.