Diego

F1 fan who catches some 💤 mid race. Renewable energy and EV enthusiast.

[Diego @SnoozeThroughF1]

A simple example why electric powertrains are inevitable. #emobility #ElectricVehicle #designthinking

[Diego @SnoozeThroughF1]

@PDXReal1

[stonkdaddy @stonk_daddy]

There’s been a lot of handwringing over SpaceX’s valuation lately, with some actually pretty well researched pieces (Morningstar) coming in 50% below the IPO price. The reason this was low is that they valued the company strictly through fundamental and financial metrics (which is fine) but didn’t apply any premium multiplier on top. Valuing $TSLA through that same strict lens over the years would never have come close to matching its actual market value. Call it the innovator’s premium or Elon premium — we could never quite quantify it in isolation before. Now we can use $TSLA as a baseline to value SpaceX.

Profitability, growth, and TAM are the core variables for valuation. Because so much of the expected profit sits far in the future, we can proxy with revenue and margins instead.

$TSLA’s ~15x sales multiple is a product of:
• 20% gross margins (profitability)
• High expected future growth, though stagnant in recent years (growth)
• Wide optionality in autonomy and robotics (TAM)

How much of that 15x is the Elon premium is difficult to quantify, but it’s embedded in the number. We can use it as a direct basis for SpaceX — there’s no reason the same premium wouldn’t apply.

SpaceX 2025 gross margins:
• Overall: 49%
• Launch segment: 67%
• Connectivity segment: 48%
• AI segment: 33%

Both launch and connectivity margins will rise substantially with Starship, but we’re not factoring that in (just as $TSLA’s margin profile will evolve with robotaxi). AI segment is dragged down by X advertising margins. As AI and infrastructure grow to become a bigger portion of the segment, margins improve. Q1 2026 margins already rose to 44%.

The data center opportunity:

$26B per year in contracted data center revenue from Anthropic and Google already represents over 50% of total revenue going forward. Using $CRWV and $NBIS as baselines for industry-standard margins points to ~70% gross margin.

The $26B is currently surge pricing well above standard rates. I’m assuming it normalizes to 70% GM in the future. Some will push back that these are short-term contracts. They are — but these are real assets in short supply right now. If supply normalizes, surge rates will come down, yet the capacity remains highly valuable. And the main reason the contracts are short-term is that if Grok or Cursor really scales, SpaceX will need the compute for itself and can generate even higher margins than selling it as a neocloud.

Blending the new data center margins with 2025 margins gets us to total gross margins for SpaceX of around 60% — that’s 3x $TSLA’s 20%.

Based on the profitability variable alone (holding the Elon premium constant), SpaceX should be valued at 3x $TSLA’s sales multiple, or 45x sales.

Conservative revenue run-rate:
• $18B 2025 revenue
• $5B Starlink growth in 2026
• $4B Cursor run-rate
• $26B data center run-rate
= $53B run-rate revenue (assuming zero growth in Grok)

$53B × 45x sales multiple = ~$2.39 trillion.

The Elon premium may be an ethereal concept we can’t fully quantify, but using $TSLA’s well-established valuation over the years as a framework lets us guesstimate how the market should treat SpaceX based on its margin profile alone. The other variables (growth and TAM) are up to your own projections. I’d argue SpaceX wins on both, but to keep it simple let’s call it a tie.

That said, there’s something bigger here: being the modern-day equivalent of the South Sea Company or East India Trading Company, what extra premium should a near-monopoly over the emerging space economy command?

[Tesla Europe, Middle East & Africa @teslaeurope]

FSD Supervised now approved in Denmark 🇩🇰

Rollout will begin soon

[Diego @SnoozeThroughF1]

Saving this for future reference.

[Eric Nashbar @ericnashbar]

@niccruzpatane @Waymo books 500,000 paid autonomous rides per week.

Cybercab is a theoretical vehicle designed to bolster Tesla's stock price.

By the way, have you seen @Waymo's Ojai?

[Diego @SnoozeThroughF1]

@niccruzpatane Waymo is a total 🐷

[Diego @SnoozeThroughF1]

@RepThomasMassie I respect your position on this.

[SpaceX @SpaceX]

Retail investors will be able to participate at the same prices as the big institutions. Expected SPCX price of $135 per share → https://t.co/eKBA0tzXbH

[Diego @SnoozeThroughF1]

LOVE THIS. @RonWyden’s face says it all

[Diego @SnoozeThroughF1]

@TinaKotek Sanctuary status is political speak for pro crime policies.

[John Paul Harmon @johnpaulharmon]

@TinaKotek Here is who @GovTinaKotek is protecting. In Oregon.
https://t.co/fOxctxMaPA

[Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 @pmarca]

And this is why we must also abolish restaurants. cc @AOC

[Diego @SnoozeThroughF1]

There’s always a moment in the @theallinpod where @Jason goes on his morally virtuous rant and it turns into the #JCalCringe highlight. He never disappoints.
@chamath @DavidSacks @friedberg

[Diego @SnoozeThroughF1]

@MarioNawfal Have police behaved like this with the free Palestine riots?

[Diego @SnoozeThroughF1]

@SawyerMerritt Or they just took them down from the site.

[Diego @SnoozeThroughF1]

@TSLAshareholder Those who have been here long enough know who it is. Definitely one of us.

[Konstantin Kisin @KonstantinKisin]

Britain had a moment of silence for George Floyd. Our politicians kneeled en masse to show their outrage at his killing. "I can't breathe" became a slogan.

George Floyd died on the other side of the world. He wasn't British.

Henry Nowak *was* British and his treatment by the police was shocking and negligent in the extreme. Yet there is no minute of silence. There is no coordinated public campaign. There is no kneeling at sporting events.

And we all know why.

During the summer of BLM, some people said "All Lives Matter". This was treated as the highest form of racism and anyone who said this was immediately cancelled. Why? Because the people in charge don't actually think all lives matter in the same way.

They have created a racial hierarchy of victimhood where a career criminal who died through mistreatment by police in a foreign country with 0 evidence of racism like George Floyd is automatically sanctified because of the colour of his skin.

And Henry Nowak, a British man, one of ours, is automatically dismissed and ignored because of the colour of his.

This is the ugly fruit of so-called "anti-racism", an obsession with race that has created a two-tier society which treats people differently because of the colour of their skin.

This needs to stop.

[Diego @SnoozeThroughF1]

@MrAndyNgo What is one supposed to do in this situation? @PortlandPolice has shown no desire to enforce the law here. If my family is being assaulted and I defend myself by driving away and risk running over one of these terrorists, I’m pretty sure I would get prosecuted.

[Andy Ngo @MrAndyNgo]

Portland, Ore. (May 31) — Far-left, anti-ICE extremists jumped on and attacked a car on the road outside the ICE facility. When the driver tried reversing to leave, they began hitting the car more. The militants also photographed the driver to put his or her photos on the internet to be attacked later.

[Diego @SnoozeThroughF1]

Give how exactly? More and more this communist clown shows his true colors.

[Bernie Sanders @BernieSanders]

I will soon be introducing a bill to give the public a 50% ownership stake in the largest AI companies in America.

This would guarantee that the trillions created by AI are used to improve the lives of all of us — and block oligarch decisions that harm the American people.

[Diego @SnoozeThroughF1]

@Rothmus 2020’s summer of riots