KUNAL SODHANI

Head of Treasury, Global Trading Centre, FX & Rates Treasury, Shinhan Bank India | ICICI Bank | Indusind Bank | Kotak Securities | Views are personal.

[KUNAL SODHANI @SodhaniKunal]

Oil prices fell to their lowest levels since before the US-Iran war amid the resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent Crude prices are at $73/bbl while DXY trading at 101.35 levels. USDINR: 93.90-94.65

[KUNAL SODHANI @SodhaniKunal]

Trump stated that Iran had "fully and completely" agreed to open its facilities to nuclear inspections, Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi quickly moderated expectations, clarifying that substantive negotiations on the nuclear issue have not actually begun. USDINR: 94.35-94.95/95.20

[KUNAL SODHANI @SodhaniKunal]

The DXY trades near 101.00, supported by firm US Treasury yields and expectations that the Fed could keep monetary policy restrictive for longer. Lagarde downplays second-round effects, trimming ECB tightening expectations. Brent Crude prices are at $77/bbl. USDINR: 94.15-94.80

[KUNAL SODHANI @SodhaniKunal]

Trump threatened strikes on Iran if Hezbollah continues attacking Israel, clouding hopes for a US-Iran peace deal. Overall, there continues to be a mixed news feeds when it comes to Iran-US. Brent Crude prices are at $80/bbl while DXY at 100.59 levels. USDINR: 94.00-94.65

[KUNAL SODHANI @SodhaniKunal]

The INR closed at 94.36 against the USD, gaining 14 paise. This marks a continued recovery for the local currency against the dollar, driven by positive market sentiments. US banks will be closed in observance of Juneteenth National Independence Day. USDINR: 94.10-94.65

[KUNAL SODHANI @SodhaniKunal]

The reference to the timing of future Fed rates adjustments vanished in FOMC, replaced by a flat pledge to deliver price stability, while job gains were upgraded and policymakers flagged strong productivity and capital investment. DXY above 100. USDINR: 94.25-94.90

[KUNAL SODHANI @SodhaniKunal]

The US Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates unchanged, but markets will closely watch the updated statement, projections, and Warsh’s press conference for clues. Brent Crude prices at $79/bbl while DXY at 99.28 levels. USDINR: 94.20-94.80

[KUNAL SODHANI @SodhaniKunal]

Trump stated that “the deal’s all signed” and added that the Strait is all opened, reinforcing hopes that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could ease. The Japanese yen was steady as the Bank of Japan was widely seen raising the benchmark rate. USDINR: 94.25-94.90

[KUNAL SODHANI @SodhaniKunal]

Trump announced that the Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Brent Crude prices at $83/bbl while DXY at 99.30 levels. A gauge of Asian stocks increased 2.1% during open. USDINR: 94.50-95.30

[KUNAL SODHANI @SodhaniKunal]

Trump says US-Iran agreement could arrive as soon as weekend. US Hot PPI keeps Fed hike risk alive despite Dollar weakness. US Initial Jobless Claims increased to 229K but remain consistent with a resilient labor market. Brent Crude prices at $89/bbl. USDINR: 94.70/80-95.60

[KUNAL SODHANI @SodhaniKunal]

Iran responded to US strikes by announcing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy shipping route. May’s US CPI hit forecasts at 4.2% YoY, up from April’s 3.8%. Core CPI ticked up to 2.9%. ECB is expected to raise interest rates today. USDINR: 94.80-95.80

[KUNAL SODHANI @SodhaniKunal]

US says strikes on Iran complete as Tehran launches drone attack on US fleet in Hormuz. Brent Crude prices at $93/bbl while DXY at 99.99 levels. China’s CPI rose 1.2% YoY in May, softer than expected. USDINR: 95.10-95.85

[KUNAL SODHANI @SodhaniKunal]

Geopolitical uncertainty and higher-for-longer Fed bets continue to underpin the US Dollar. An Iran-Israel agreement to halt attacks followed President Trump's appeal, boosting hopes for peace negotiations. Brent Crude prices at $94/bbl & DXY at 99.70 levels. USDINR: 94.80-95.80.

[KUNAL SODHANI @SodhaniKunal]

The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed the economy added 172K jobs in May, well above the 85K expected, reinforcing expectations that the Fed could raise interest rates later this year. Iran-Israel strike continues. DXY above 100. USDINR: 94.80-95.50/70

[KUNAL SODHANI @SodhaniKunal]

Fed officials remain cautious as inflation stays above target. ECB hawks keep June rate-hike expectations firmly alive. There was no firm sign of progress in ceasefire talks between US and Iran. The NFP is expected to show a gain of 85,000 jobs in May. USDINR: 95.40-95.95/96.20

[KUNAL SODHANI @SodhaniKunal]

Indian rupee has weakened to 95.76 against the dollar, pressured by a combination of new US import tariff proposals, a crude oil price spike, and aggressive selling by foreign institutional investors. ADP, JOLTS and ISM Services data reinforce US resilience. USDINR: 95.40-95.90.

[KUNAL SODHANI @SodhaniKunal]

US JOLTS vacancies jump, easing fears over US labor weakness. The US military says it has launched "self-defense" strikes on Iran and shot down ballistic missiles and drones fired at ships and Gulf countries. Brent Crude at $97/bbl while DXY at 99.17 levels. USDINR: 94.90-95.70

[KUNAL SODHANI @SodhaniKunal]

US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 54 in May, beating expectations and supporting the US Dollar. Iran pauses peace talks over Lebanon attacks, Trump calls Netanyahu, secures temporary halt. Tehran has made clear that a ceasefire in Lebanon is a key condition. USDINR: 94.80-95.70

[KUNAL SODHANI @SodhaniKunal]

The rupee had ended the session at 95 per dollar. Trump seeks altering proposal terms regarding the Strait of Hormuz and removing Iran's highly enriched uranium. May inflation rose across southern Europe but slowed in Germany. USDINR: 94.80-95.70

[KUNAL SODHANI @SodhaniKunal]

Axios reports Washington and Tehran reached a preliminary 60-day truce agreement. Any official announcement in this regard could boost sentiments. Fed’s Musalem says inflation could take longer to return to target and warns rate hikes remain possible. USDINR: 95.30-96.00/96.20