We've spent the last 10 months analyzing EVERY single tariff development:
Here's the EXACT playbook for investors.
1. Trump puts out cryptic post on tariffs coming for a specific country or sector, markets drift lower
2. Trump announces large tariff rate (50%+) and markets crash to shake out weak positions
3. Dip buyers step in but the head fake rally leads to fresh lows where smart money begins buying
4. After the market closes on Friday, President Trump doubles down on new tariffs to apply pressure
5. On Saturday, the target of the new tariff typically responds or comments
6. On Sunday, before the futures open, Trump posts an announcement saying he is working on a solution
7. Futures open on sharply higher Sunday at 6 PM ET but begin losing momentum into the Monday open
8. After the Monday open, Treasury Secretary Bessent appears on live TV and reassures investors
9. Over the next 2-4 weeks, various members of the Trump Administration tease a trade deal
10. Trump announces a new trade deal and the stock market hits a record high
11. Repeat from step #1
Part of our strong YTD performance comes from following this EXACT playbook in times of trade tensions.
The US is currently on step #6 with China.
All of this is noise if you don't use leverage.
There are only 2 questions you need to ask as a long term holder:
Will tomorrow be more digital than today?
Has the liquidity cycle and business cycle topped or is it still rising to finance the $10trn that needs to roll in the next 12 months?
If both answer are yes then it's all noise. If your time horizon is 5 yrs + then the second part is just noise too.
BTFD and Don't Fuck This Up.
Thanks
Often, the moment you feel like giving up on your coins is the moment you should actually be buying and vice versa.
The best long term buys I've done are the ones I did while feeling sick in my stomach from all the pain we endured the weeks/months before.
On the other side, the worst buys are generally the ones where you feel you don't own enough after prices have already gone up a lot.
Lesson in there :)
Finally, $XRP / $USD Weekly.
I have overlayed the 2017 bars pattern but also adjusted it to size in relation to our recent breakout.
If we continues following this pattern with this cycles % gains, we could see $10+ in Q1 and a moon boy blow of top to $35 ish in Q3/4 2025.
I will be deleveraging heavily in Q1 just FYI, but if we do continue as below I'll be happy riding my moon bag.
#Ripple is solving a key issues on FOREX and cross border payments:
1. Long delays and lost transactions due to SWIFT messaging combine with banking latency
2. High cost due to currency combinations when low liquidity, e.g. going JPY to USD, then USD to IQD. so two spreads and potentially low liquidity.
3. FOREX exposure as transaction takes 5 or more days, so you may get more or less than what you were expecting
4. AND THE BIG ONE: Currency pair volatility caused by one of the currencies economies changing, eg central bank interest rates. CPI, etc.
I don't think #Ripple talks much about FOREX, but I will bet big on the fact that #Ripples strategic roadmap is to replace the FOREX markets.
And don't forget #Ripple has an exit strategy in 20yrs, their goal is always to establish XRP as a global reserve. Then the world will automatically, and independently use the XRPL globally, each nation and companies building their own capability.
This utility, this world is what you and I have bought XRP for, not for its speculative value or store of value. We don't convert kilowatts into fictitious value, we have REAL value creating capability that doesn't exist today.
[1/🧵] Roughly 68% of all nodes have already upgraded to the latest version of the XRP Ledger server software.
However I bet you have no idea about all the new features that have been introduced, right? 🧐
Here's everything you need to know, short & simple. 👇
The NYDFS approved #RLUSD. It really hasn't sunk in for most people. LET ME SINK IT IN...
I cannot stress enough what this means, this is one of the biggest things that has happened in crypto. RLUSD is the only token APPROVED as a regulated financial instruments. I.e. bank grade. No other token has this classification, not even USDC OR USDT.
👀 PLEASE PAUSE WHAT YOU ARE DOING. CLEAR YOUR MIND AND READ ON... This will put all the pieces of the puzzle in place for you.
But why you don't realise is that it indirectly approved the XRPL and ETH blockchains.
Here's why:
The New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) approving RLUSD as a regulated stablecoin indirectly acknowledges the XRPL (XRP Ledger) and Ethereum blockchain as suitable platforms for financial-grade operations. However, this does not mean the blockchains themselves are officially classified as "banking grade." Here’s a breakdown:
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Why the Blockchains Are Implicitly Recognized
1. Regulated Asset on the Blockchain:
RLUSD is tokenized on XRPL and Ethereum, meaning these blockchains meet the technical and security standards required by NYDFS for financial operations.
NYDFS approval implicitly validates these blockchains as suitable for hosting regulated financial instruments.
2. Operational Standards:
Blockchains like XRPL and Ethereum are decentralized, secure, and auditable, meeting criteria such as transparency, immutability, and resilience.
These characteristics align with the stringent requirements for financial transactions in regulated markets.
3. Compliance with NYDFS Oversight:
NYDFS approval of RLUSD ensures that the underlying infrastructure (blockchain) can support regulated entities, including audits and real-time tracking of reserves.
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Why They Are Not Officially "Banking Grade"
1. No Direct Certification:
NYDFS approves the asset (RLUSD), not the blockchain technology itself.
Blockchains are treated as platforms or tools, not as regulated entities like banks.
2. Limited Scope of Approval:
Approval applies to RLUSD's issuance and management under U.S. banking laws, not the general suitability of XRPL or Ethereum for all banking use cases.
3. Banking Grade Requires Broader Acceptance:
For a blockchain to be classified as "banking grade," it would need explicit recognition by banking regulators (e.g., Federal Reserve, BIS) and widespread adoption in core banking functions like lending, deposits, or central clearing.
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Conclusion
While the NYDFS approval of RLUSD implicitly recognizes the technical and operational robustness of XRPL and Ethereum for regulated financial activities, it does not formally certify these blockchains as "banking grade." However, this sets a strong precedent, indicating that blockchains can meet high regulatory standards and be integral to financial-grade operations, potentially paving the way for broader institutional and banking adoption in the future.
Full disclosure: ChatGPT was used to write most of this with my assistance and prompting.
#XRP #XRPL #ETH
[1/🧵] XRP Ledger Crashcourse for Beginners!
The XRPL ecosystem is very unique from what many newcomers are used to, which begs the question, “WHAT THE HECK IS EVEN GOING ON HERE?”
Here's everything you need to know packed into one single thread. 👇