Spark Commodities

Empowering trade, together.

[Spark Commodities @SparkCommo]

🌏 Strongest US prompt arb signal to Asia (via COGH) since first week of Iran conflict

- JKM-TTF spreads have rallied this morning, with the Jul26 contract priced up $0.200 this morning to $1.575 - the highest premium in a week.

- As a result, the US M+1 #LNG arb to Asia (via COGH) is now at +0.411 - the strongest signal to Asia since March 4th.

- Similarly, the M+2 & M+3 arbs have increased significantly, and have now also opened to Asia.

🔔 All prices as of 11:30 UKT - track live global LNG Arb signals via Spark’s Intraday platform

[Spark Commodities @SparkCommo]

🇺🇲 Longest signal to Asia for prompt US LNG cargos since July 2024

- US prompt #LNG arb to Asia (via COGH) has remained consistently open and pointing to Asia for 2 straight weeks, currently priced at $0.113/MMBtu

- This has been driven by JKM-TTF spreads remaining elevated, with the Jul26 contract currently at $1.825 - 20c higher than 2 weeks ago.

- The prompt arb to Asia via Panama Canal is priced at $0.861/MMBtu, remaining open and pointing to Asia since the Iran conflict started.

[Spark Commodities @SparkCommo]

🇮🇹 Italian Regas Terminals in the money for capacity holders with US offtake, despite prompt arb open to Asia (via COGH)

- US prompt arb to Asia (via COGH) has been open or near breakeven levels for the last 5 weeks, frequently incentivising US #LNG cargos to deliver to Asia instead of Europe

- However, for those with regas capacity at Italian terminals, Italy has been more profitable to deliver to than Asia for US prompt cargos throughout this period, assuming sunk slot costs

- Those without regas options and are required to pay for regas slots are still out of the money as compared to Asia delivery

This is in light of the recent announcement by QatarEnergy of further force majeure announcements for June & July cargo deliveries to Italy

[Spark Commodities @SparkCommo]

🌏 US Arb now open to Asia (via Panama Canal) for majority of forward curve

- Before the Iran conflict, the US #LNG Arb (via Panama Canal) forward curve was closed and pointing to Europe for all of 2026

- Following the Ras Laffan strike, the Summer 2026 arb opened to Asia but Q4 2026 remained closed and pointing to Europe

- The latest forward curve now shows all of 2026 and most of 2027 pointing to Asia (via Panama Canal)

- Whilst the majority of global volumes still travel to Asia via the Cape, the Panama canal with its new LotSA slot system has become increasingly important for US offtakers looking to capitalise on more favourable Asian LNG Pricing as a result of the Iran War.

🔔 Latest Curve as of 11:20 UKT - track live global LNG Arb forward curve  signals via Spark’s Intraday platform

[Spark Commodities @SparkCommo]

📈 Atlantic LNG Freight rates rise above $100k again

- Spark’s Arb Breakevens tool shows how freight breakeven levels have applied pricing pressures on #LNG #freight spot rates throughout the last 7 weeks.

- This last week has seen the US M+1 arb signalling prompt cargos to deliver to Asia (via COGH) instead of Europe due to rising JKM-TTF premiums, thus incentivising cross-basin flows and tightening vessel supply

- In that same period, Spark30S (Atlantic) rates have risen 10.75k to $100.75k/day

[Spark Commodities @SparkCommo]

@ed_fin @Kallang22 Désolés pour ca. Heureusement que tout est rentré dans l’ordre maintenant et nous restons bien sûr disponibles pour vous aider si besoin.

[Spark Commodities @SparkCommo]

🚨 Atlantic #LNG #freight rates drop below $100k for first time since start of Middle East conflict

- Spark30S (Atlantic) rates have dropped $82k this week, assessed today at $98k/day
- Lowest Atlantic freight rates since 2nd March
- Spark25S (Pacific) rates are down $29k this week to $111k/day

[Spark Commodities @SparkCommo]

📈 US prompt LNG cargos increase 62% in value, corresponding to +$23.1M per cargo on average

- #TTF May26 prices up 57% and JKM Jun26 prices up 66% as of 11:40am UKT today, consequently increasing LNG cargo valuations significantly

- Spark’s #LNG Netbacks show that the valuation of prompt US cargos (Apr26 loading) have increased on average by $23.1M (+62%) since the start of the conflict, as compared to the average valuation in February

- Similarly, Nigerian cargos have increased by $24.9M (+72%) in valuation

[Spark Commodities @SparkCommo]

📈 JKM-TTF premium rallies across the forward curve despite strong TTF gains

- #TTF contracts across the 2026 forward curve opened this morning at their highest levels to date. The TTF May26 contract is up 4.415 (+24%), now at $22.782/MMBtu (€67.710/MWh)
- JKM-TTF Jun26 spread is up +0.975 to $2.600/MMBtu. Despite significant gains in the TTF, the JKM-TTF premium has increased across the 2026 forward curve, indicating that JKM gains are outpacing those seen on the TTF.

All levels from Spark Intraday, as of 19th March 9:20am UKT

[Spark Commodities @SparkCommo]

📈 LNG Freight: The Largest One-Day Drop on Record falling $56.25k to $208k/day

Sharp correction in freight rates after widely reported 10 Qatari vessels made available to the market for relet

Other live market highlights from Spark Intraday as of 12:00 UK time:
- TTF May26: Up 16% to $20.277/MMBtu
- JKM-TTF May26: Up 0.575 to +$3.125/MMBtu

[Spark Commodities @SparkCommo]

🎢LNG Freight: Spark30S (Atlantic) up +$116.5k to $278,250/day, new d-o-d record increase

- Highest Atlantic #LNG #Freight rates since Dec 2022
- Spark25S (Pacific) follows suit - up +$108.75k to $207,500

Other live market highlights from Spark Intraday as of 11:10am UKT:
- TTF May26: Down 5.6% to $16.960/MMBtu
- JKM-TTF May26: Flat at +$3.125/MMBtu
- US M+1 Arb: Now at +$0.070/MMBtu and much more marginally pointing to Asia

[Spark Commodities @SparkCommo]

📈 LNG Freight: Largest ever 1 day move in Spark30S benchmark: +$100,250 to $161,750/day

Other live market highlights from Spark Intraday (as of 12:00pm UKT):
- TTF May26: Up 37% to $20.020/MMBtu
- JKM-TTF May26: Up 3.025 to +$4.875/MMBtu
- US M+1 Arb: At +$2.317/MMBtu - strongest signal to Asia since Dec 2022

[Spark Commodities @SparkCommo]

📢We’re giving all our X followers the opportunity to try Spark - completely free for two weeks.

Get access to Spark’s LNG Freight, DES LNG and European Regas pricing platforms and explore the data trusted by leading LNG & Gas market participants.

Interested? Send us a DM and we’ll share how to activate your Spark Trial account.
#LNG #Freight #DESLNG #JKMTTF

[Spark Commodities @SparkCommo]

📢We’re giving all our X followers the opportunity to try Spark - completely free for two weeks.

Get access to Spark’s LNG Freight, DES LNG and European Regas pricing platforms and explore the data trusted by leading LNG & Gas market participants.

Interested? Send us a DM and we’ll share how to activate your Spark Trial account.
#LNG #Freight #DESLNG #JKMTTF

[Spark Commodities @SparkCommo]

📈 Atlantic #LNG #Freight Rates continue to rally, up $30k in 3 weeks

- Spark30S (Atlantic) rates are assessed at $40.75k/day - up $31k from the current YTD low of $9.75k/day on 4th Feb
- This is $32.25k higher than Atlantic rates seen this time last year
- The Feb26 Spark30FFA contract is currently priced at $23k, over $16k higher than Feb25 but still notably lower than most other years

[Spark Commodities @SparkCommo]

Atlantic #LNG Arbs rally as DES-LNG regional price spread increases

- US front month arb (via COGH) is at its narrowest since early Dec 2025.
- WAF front month arb (via COGH) is pointing to Asia for the first time in 6 weeks
- Spark’s Intraday Arb Analytics tool shows the DES LNG regional price spread for Mar26-loading US cargos has increased approx. $1.4/MMBtu in favour of Asia delivery since early Feb 2026, driving this narrowing of the arb.

[Spark Commodities @SparkCommo]

🔎 What’s actually driving #LNG arbs?

Spark has launched Arb Analytics within Spark Intraday

An LNG Arb can move for many reasons
- Timespreads shift
- The JKM–TTF widens or narrows
- Freight strengthens or softens
- NWE DES differentials to TTF move

The headline number alone doesn’t tell you what’s behind the change

With Arb Analytics, you can pin two points to analyse the delta, isolate the drivers, and link directly to the underlying tradable products

▶️ Watch the short walkthrough below

[Spark Commodities @SparkCommo]

🚨 DES LNG-TTF Basis at lowest levels since October 2023
- SparkNWE Front Month DES #LNG benchmark is assessed at TTF - $0.935/MMBtu, the widest #TTF basis since October 2023

- The combination of the widening basis & falling TTF prices has resulted in outright NW-Europe DES LNG price for March delivery falling $2.366 to $10.441/MMBtu since Friday - the steepest drop seen since August 2023

- Spark’s Regas Terminal Moneyness metric shows almost all European regas terminals, with the exception of UK terminals,  now ‘in the money’ for March delivery vs. selling DES to NWE.

[Spark Commodities @SparkCommo]

🔥 Prompt TTF below €35 📉

- Today, Feb26 #TTF experienced a substantial decrease of over €5.00 from Friday’s end of day price, closing at €34.600

- This is the first time that the Feb26 contract has closed below €35 since the middle of January