SpeculationInsights

Independent speculator. Mostly on vibes.

[SpeculationInsights @SpecInsights]

I challenge the "things have literally never been better" crowd to reflect on some of these. 1/4

[SpeculationInsights @SpecInsights]

@citrini https://t.co/BNfJgz4sXG

[kuz @kylekuzma]

I will be breaking my silence soon & going on TBPN to discuss the future of AI, autonomous defense, robotics and biotech and energy infrastructure

@sama, let me know if you want to meet after. We are still in the early innings of American Dynamism. Much to discuss 🤝 🎥

[JH @CRUDEOIL231]

The underlying problem here is that trading oil—specifically the prompt—is becoming completely untradable.

To be fair, I have to respect their execution. They’ve completely killed off liquidity and volume, effectively driving traders from futures into options.

what kind of trader has the courage to size up in this tape? The constant 2 way VaR shocks we're getting are completely out of hand.

They’re using vol itself to suppress prices. It’s a highly sophisticated playbook.

#oott #iran

[SpeculationInsights @SpecInsights]

Old enough to remember when the landgrab/VC/early adopter subsidies lasted years instead of months. Sad!

[SpeculationInsights @SpecInsights]

https://t.co/M7sX5ghM7V

[Barchart @Barchart]

Turkey dumped its gold holdings by the largest amount in history during March 📉🇹🇷

[SpeculationInsights @SpecInsights]

Will be a solid 6-8 month consolidation for precious metals and will continue to be under pressure as we work thru the energy crisis, but it’s a moonshot after that

[Guy @Credib1eGuy]

Nothing feels safe to safe to put your money in

Including cash

Hate this feeling

[Chris Barber @chrisbarber]

https://t.co/Z5V4Li4QFE

[Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen]

(Reuters) - Chicago Board of Trade wheat and K.C. wheat futures climbed by their daily trading limits on Tuesday after the U.S. Department of Agriculture projected the nation's harvest will drop to the lowest level since 1972.

[SpeculationInsights @SpecInsights]

He's now sick and doesn't want to look at the screen. Gonna be really sick when it tests 1000 😂

[SpeculationInsights @SpecInsights]

Update: We have our first sell - took 20% off at $544.50

[SpeculationInsights @SpecInsights]

Update: Old man is getting vocal with his victory laps and still hasn't sold a single share.

[SpeculationInsights @SpecInsights]

Dude sold 60% between $540 - $640. Says no regrets but he definitely regrets it and looking to get back in.

[Ali @haramcart]

"Barak Ravid can keep posting longer than you can remain solvent" — Oil Trader's Proverb

[Noodles @criptopaul]

Axios reported an Iran deal as “imminent” five times in 19 days. Five times, no deal. Why does the same story keep coming from the same reporter?

His name is Barak Ravid. Deep sources in the White House and Israeli intelligence. Every time the administration needs to pressure Iran or move oil, Ravid gets the call. Is he reporting news or delivering a message?

$760 million in oil shorts placed 21 minutes before the April 20 Iran announcement. Who knew?

Yesterday Trump paused the naval operation in Hormuz. Markets rallied.
But zero US ships crossed the Strait on Tuesday. Iran says they “have not even begun yet.” Does this sound like a deal?

Iran wants 5 years on enrichment. The US demands 20. Is that a negotiation or a performance?

Every time the leak drops, oil sells off and futures rally. Every time, nothing gets signed. Ask yourself who benefits from the market believing a deal is close right now.

Now they say a response is expected within 48 hours. Again. This after Iran resumed attacks on shipping. I remain deeply skeptical.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​..

[SpeculationInsights @SpecInsights]

$TKR beat and raise. Robotics portion driving higher margins in industrial motion segment and growing LDD. Selling commodity belts business.

[SpeculationInsights @SpecInsights]

Pretty, pretty good

[SpeculationInsights @SpecInsights]

"0DTE is a feature not a fad" was pretty easy to buy into. Sometimes it's not that hard.

[SpeculationInsights @SpecInsights]

@TheNextBigRush More than a few weeks/months: $CBOE

[Le Shrub🌳 @agnostoxxx]

I’ll say it once again:
Once you kill Jabba the Hut, you don’t achieve peace.
Instead, you get a bunch of warlords fighting to replace Jabba, as well as 3 seasons of the Mandalorian.

[🏴‍☠️ @calvinfroedge]

Got sugar?

[Arrakis Global @ArrakisGlobal]

Shifting from an investor... to a trader. A few thoughts.

LT Investing died for me in 2022. The nature and structure of markets, the geopolitical paradigm and how asset pricing works today meant I had to shift my approach.

[WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧 @WarMonitor3]

Sources inside Iranian leadership have said that the IRGC military wing have now completely taken over decision making, for military and political decision making with the newly appointed leader only able to ratify decision making rather than issue directives-reuters

[SpeculationInsights @SpecInsights]

Wild to think there are people out that literally never think about the market. Meanwhile we’ve spent the last 2 months glued to GeoPol OSINT, thinking about minesweeping operations and super el niño and fertilizer shortage-induced famines while trading fake axios headlines

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

“Some administration officials believe that continuing the blockade for 𝘁𝘄𝗼 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵𝘀 would cause significant long-term damage to Tehran’s energy industry” (emphasis mine)