SplitTheRails

Economist. Political forecasting and prediction markets.

[paris martineau @parismartineau]

if you're in line to disclose your affair with jensen huang STAY IN LINE

[SplitTheRails @SplitTheRails]

@GaetenD Ahh, that sounds lovely. Yeah, I was hoping money might fly in on some of the Trump leaving office markets.

[SplitTheRails @SplitTheRails]

@DuncanGilpatric @galendruke It’d have to be a combination of resistance lib + black support, winning SC, and somehow coalescing the mainstream support quickly (maybe Ossoff blunders). Not saying it’s likely (and my actual money’s mostly on Ossoff and Warnock), but I can see a pathway.

[SplitTheRails @SplitTheRails]

@DuncanGilpatric @galendruke Fair, didn’t mean to exclude him from that, though I think Harris’ odds are being underrated.

[SplitTheRails @SplitTheRails]

@Garrett_Archer Thanks, Garrett. What's the source/scope of the ~4,000 remaining in Navajo? The state page lists 1,771 ready + 536 provisional = 2,307, but its total-minus-counted gives 4,614.

Do you know if there are still outstanding AZ-02 ballots in Pinal, or is that effectively done?

[SplitTheRails @SplitTheRails]

@notcapnamerica @ZacharyDonnini Interesting. I’m at about 80% NC-03 and 40% AZ-02.

[SplitTheRails @SplitTheRails]

@yesh222 I thought consensus was that Murphy’s highly likely to lose?

[Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur]

Mississippi fun fact: Scott Colom was nominated to be a federal judge by Joe Biden. And he was blocked by… Cindy-Hyde Smith, via the blue slip process. Now Colom leads Hyde-Smith by 1,138 votes in what would be the upset of the century.

[SplitTheRails @SplitTheRails]

@NateSilver538 In general I think you’re right that the prediction markets largely followed the models/polls, with the big exception of interpreting the early vote. Prediction markets moved much farther toward Dems on the NC House seats and NV governor, for example, as the early vote came in.

[SplitTheRails @SplitTheRails]

That Republicans lost a bunch of gerrymandered seats does not mean that it was ineffective. From a partisan perspective, you want to optimize for chances of winning a majority, not stopping the opposite party from getting an extra 10 seats in a tsunami-sized wave.

[David Wildstein @wildstein]

Gov. Mikie Sherrill takes congressional redistricting off the table in New Jersey for 2028.

https://t.co/N4Wh2T9s9Y

[SplitTheRails @SplitTheRails]

@SeanTrende Still thrown by this one

[SplitTheRails @SplitTheRails]

5/ Still on Raman too—broadly with a lot of the other election traders on those three.

Here's my overall mix:

[SplitTheRails @SplitTheRails]

1/ A few election eve thoughts.

I've got Democrats winning the Senate 54–46, with my margin guesses below.

Still lots of value on the Democratic side, but some of the best “safe bet” value is now on Republicans.

[SplitTheRails @SplitTheRails]

4/ I still see plenty of value in Talarico and El-Sayed. I'd put them at roughly 85% and 90% to win, versus asks around 74¢ and 78¢ tonight. Bigger upset risk than the Republicans above, but a lot of room between those prices and my fair values.

[Zachary Donnini @ZacharyDonnini]

Based on historical reporting patterns, we expect Michigan's final 15% of votes tomorrow to come largely from Democratic areas and heavily favor Abdul El-Sayed.

If those patterns hold, Mike Rogers could lead by 2.8 points at 12:54 a.m. in a race that ultimately finishes tied.