Confusion

[Tim Pan @mediastorm_en]

My iPhone Duo video went viral, so I'm giving away 100 iPhones on X 😛

[Confusion @SsssChien]

@mediastorm_en 哥 一路追随 抽我😎

[Confusion @SsssChien]

YJKJ

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I guess what I've seen from Chinese laser capacity expansion:

1. Dongshan/Source Photonics (索尔思): 9M/month capacity -> 22M/month Q4 -> 300m/year in 2027 (mostly EML, but blended)

Claims of 1B/year "target" for laser chips with no deadline, but I'd take this as a grain of salt.

2. Shijia (仕佳): 72M/year for 100mW CW, 2-3 year project (mainly 2029 full capacity online)

3. Yunling (云岭): 18.75M/year 70/100mW CW, 3 year schedule (mainly 2029 full capacity online)

4. Ligent (纳真), some reports stated 170M target for total capacity (also blended, lot of which is 200G EML)

5. Yuanjie: ~10M/year currently, expanding for early 2027 and 2028, but no quantities.

6. Hongchen: I think this was the perfect example of flooding H2 2026 arguments. With some some optical bears claiming 60-70M capacity...

But this turned out to completely wrong... Their actual statements were "70/100 mW products are entering small-volume production".

7. Dingxin Optoelectronics - Targeting 15M/year blended (with 70/100mW CW and 100G EML lines)

Obviously mapped many others like Everbright/Accelink and did some guesses around laser mixes, but only included public disclosures.

From your pluggable vendor channel checks:

- 70mW/100mW lasers are actually a bottleneck right now per Innolight/Cambridge channel checks, laser ASPs actually increasing.

Lasers are tighter than they were a few months ago.

I don't think there's a giant moat here, Chinese players are already competitive. But a bottleneck is a bottleneck, and anyone with capacity to monetize that will benefit, since it's a volume game.

In terms of what the larger pluggable makers are actually doing:

- Innolight September disclosure: actively introducing new suppliers and are planning to sign 2-3 year-long contracts to lock upstream capacity for lasers (still actively securing supply for 1.6T pluggables)

So there's some game theory over who can lock up qualified capacity among all your players.

Even if there's some over-ordering, laser BOM is cheap, so they'd probably want to lock up capacity with more suppliers than lose billions in downstream revenue. (also kinda hurts competitors)

- High end lines (for CPO), non-competitive with Western players like $LITE / $COHR as of next few years. But Chinese players would eventually develop the technology.

- $AAOI CEO: Chinese suppliers several years behind on high-power CPO/DWDM laser production "not in the next 2,3 years"

- $LITE CEO questioned whether claimed Chinese manufacturing capacity was translating into commercial output. "At least at the moment, we see no impact from any Chinese laser supply."

This is despite Shijia, Everbright, Yuanjie and others stating 400mW capabilities and capacity expansion targets from Chinese companies. Although Western CEOs might be disputing their reliability and capability to scale these lines.

I see lower end range bottleneck for pluggable will gradually ease as more capacity comes online 2028. But all evidence points against near-term overflooding.

The 100mW range for example, someone cited 2 years of equipment investment. Higher ranges were 3 years for equipment investment? So even some Chinese players take years for capacity to come online.

The multi year laser shortage statements from laser company executives seems to be true... especially among higher end ranges, since buildout takes a lot of time.

Legitimate competition coming from China, but as of now there's a scramble for CW LTAs among the industry in 2026-2027.

Lot of capacity is probably allocated toward higher spec lasers or EML, as seen with EML bottlenecking $LITE for the longest time (they have more supply now) that they had to buy CW off the market instead of supplying it themselves.

This is while tail end for 800G demand for example, might continue much much longer than expected with sovereign DC buildouts. So there might be some surprising dynamics for duration, we'll see.

In the end I do think supply chains will be bifurcated:

- Chinese players will prioritize domestic capabilities but heavily sources globally.

- Western players (now) prioritize Western supply chains unless China comes online with cheap enough supply (which don't see happening near-term).

TLDR:
-> Multi-year shortage definitely seems accurate for higher end specs
-> Lot of China capacity overflooding claims earlier from H1 turned out to be completely false. People keep making them for some reason across memory to photonics.
-> Chinese laser players are competitive for 70mW/100MW, meaningful expansion Y/Y, but nothing showing overflooding, given laser demand increasing, probably gradual easing into 2028.

We'll see, supply chain evolves month after month, just my current opinion from what I'm seeing.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I guess what I've seen from Chinese laser capacity expansion:

1. Dongshan/Source Photonics (索尔思): 9M/month capacity -> 22M/month Q4 -> 300m/year in 2027 (mostly EML, but blended)

Claims of 1B/year "target" for laser chips with no deadline, but I'd take this as a grain of salt.

2. Shijia (仕佳): 72M/year for 100mW CW, 2-3 year project (mainly 2029 full capacity online)

3. Yunling (云岭): 18.75M/year 70/100mW CW, 3 year schedule (mainly 2029 full capacity online)

4. Ligent (纳真), some reports stated 170M target for total capacity (also blended, lot of which is 200G EML)

5. Yuanjie: ~10M/year currently, expanding for early 2027 and 2028, but no quantities.

6. Hongchen: I think this was the perfect example of flooding H2 2026 arguments. With some some optical bears claiming 60-70M capacity...

But this turned out to completely wrong... Their actual statements were "70/100 mW products are entering small-volume production".

7. Dingxin Optoelectronics - Targeting 15M/year blended (with 70/100mW CW and 100G EML lines)

Obviously mapped many others like Everbright/Accelink and did some guesses around laser mixes, but only included public disclosures.

From your pluggable vendor channel checks:

- 70mW/100mW lasers are actually a bottleneck right now per Innolight/Cambridge channel checks, laser ASPs actually increasing.

Lasers are tighter than they were a few months ago.

I don't think there's a giant moat here, Chinese players are already competitive. But a bottleneck is a bottleneck, and anyone with capacity to monetize that will benefit, since it's a volume game.

In terms of what the larger pluggable makers are actually doing:

- Innolight September disclosure: actively introducing new suppliers and are planning to sign 2-3 year-long contracts to lock upstream capacity for lasers (still actively securing supply for 1.6T pluggables)

So there's some game theory over who can lock up qualified capacity among all your players.

Even if there's some over-ordering, laser BOM is cheap, so they'd probably want to lock up capacity with more suppliers than lose billions in downstream revenue. (also kinda hurts competitors)

- High end lines (for CPO), non-competitive with Western players like $LITE / $COHR as of next few years. But Chinese players would eventually develop the technology.

- $AAOI CEO: Chinese suppliers several years behind on high-power CPO/DWDM laser production "not in the next 2,3 years"

- $LITE CEO questioned whether claimed Chinese manufacturing capacity was translating into commercial output. "At least at the moment, we see no impact from any Chinese laser supply."

This is despite Shijia, Everbright, Yuanjie and others stating 400mW capabilities and capacity expansion targets from Chinese companies. Although Western CEOs might be disputing their reliability and capability to scale these lines.

I see lower end range bottleneck for pluggable will gradually ease as more capacity comes online 2028. But all evidence points against near-term overflooding.

The 100mW range for example, someone cited 2 years of equipment investment. Higher ranges were 3 years for equipment investment? So even some Chinese players take years for capacity to come online.

The multi year laser shortage statements from laser company executives seems to be true... especially among higher end ranges, since buildout takes a lot of time.

Legitimate competition coming from China, but as of now there's a scramble for CW LTAs among the industry in 2026-2027.

Lot of capacity is probably allocated toward higher spec lasers or EML, as seen with EML bottlenecking $LITE for the longest time (they have more supply now) that they had to buy CW off the market instead of supplying it themselves.

This is while tail end for 800G demand for example, might continue much much longer than expected with sovereign DC buildouts. So there might be some surprising dynamics for duration, we'll see.

In the end I do think supply chains will be bifurcated:

- Chinese players will prioritize domestic capabilities but heavily sources globally.

- Western players (now) prioritize Western supply chains unless China comes online with cheap enough supply (which don't see happening near-term).

TLDR:
-> Multi-year shortage definitely seems accurate for higher end specs
-> Lot of China capacity overflooding claims earlier from H1 turned out to be completely false. People keep making them for some reason across memory to photonics.
-> Chinese laser players are competitive for 70mW/100MW, meaningful expansion Y/Y, but nothing showing overflooding, given laser demand increasing, probably gradual easing into 2028.

We'll see, supply chain evolves month after month, just my current opinion from what I'm seeing.

[Confusion @SsssChien]

确实，强烈支持。

[Subu @SRizzi27264]

@SecWar 强烈支持，孔子学院浪费了大量中国纳税人的资金，却没有取得任何像样的成果，我作为中国人支持美国在全球范围内���其进行打击以迫使其关闭。

[Confusion @SsssChien]

@VINTAG1VID @huoqubot_

[Confusion @SsssChien]

@VINTAG1VID @huoqubot_

[Confusion @SsssChien]

@VINTAG1VID @sexygirl1164288 @huoqubot_

[Confusion @SsssChien]

@mooo0on403 @3596675596com 🥲有时候我甚至想为什么我们中国人几千年来要连续记录那么多历史，以至于土耳其人能用它寻找一个又一个父亲。

[Confusion @SsssChien]

不仅如此。
我们中国人写了几千年的史书，而土耳其人用来选择自己的祖先。

[Cheoğlu☭ @Cheoglu]

Bu çin okullarında nasıl bi eğitim var amk adamların bilgi birikimine bak

[云茹萨玛的百夫长 @Yunruscenturion]

@YuzhiyanLucian 谁说的，我可太感谢土耳其了，因为土耳其那搞笑的经济和货币汇率，我在steam和xbox上用人民币兑里拉再消费省的了不少钱。我真希望埃尔多安再接再厉。

[Confusion @SsssChien]

@iMobilizando 作为中国人，十分敬佩卢拉。一个八十岁的老人，只想让自己的国家再次伟大。

[Confusion @SsssChien]

@Arnaud_tvs @SingHong137 @martytaka777 越南人，尤其北部越南人几乎多多少少都有中国血统。毕竟越南真正意义上从中国分裂出去也是明朝的事情了。在那之前越南作为中国的郡县存在了一千多年。

[清月已经不困了 @qingyue820]

笼鸡有食汤锅近，野雀无粮天地宽。

[Confusion @SsssChien]

@cherylnatsu 用脑子🧠很难？这是着火过的样子？

[Confusion @SsssChien]

@LeLeluax 土耳其人长着欧洲人的脸，信阿拉伯人的宗教，留着希腊的血，写拉丁字母，住着罗马风格的房子，认五千公里外的突厥人为野爹，全国禁止查DNA（防止希腊祖先和亚美尼亚祖先诈尸），吹牛说中国建长城为了防他，又跑到五千公里外躲避中国人的追杀😅最近通货膨胀世界前五，女的以找中国老公为荣

[Confusion @SsssChien]

哈哈哈哈

[沙漠之狐 埃尔温·隆美尔 @3596675596com]

近期X上的骂战如下

东亚日常：🇨🇳vs🇯🇵vs🇰🇷

法国大骚乱：最开始是🇯🇵VS🇫🇷，后来🇨🇳站队支持🇫🇷，变成🇯🇵vs🇫🇷🇨🇳

因某个土耳其人犯贱，拿新疆问题挑衅中国人，被中国人狠踩玻璃心，🇹🇷上下玻璃心碎一地，开足马力和🇨🇳对骂，现在是🇨🇳vs🇹🇷

和🇨🇳🇫🇷打的不可开交的🇯🇵，看到🇨🇳🇹🇷互骂，🇯🇵向🇹🇷示好，表示🇹🇷🇯🇵联手骂🇨🇳，于是🇯🇵��🇷抗中战线成立，🇰🇷看到🇯🇵🇹🇷联手抗中，主动加入🇯🇵🇹🇷战线，形成🇯🇵🇰🇷🇹🇷vs🇨🇳

🇬🇷🇷🇺，看到🇨🇳骂他们的冤家🇹🇷，表示战队支持🇨🇳，和🇨🇳一起骂🇹🇷

库尔德人看到🇨🇳🇷🇺🇬🇷骂🇹🇷，主动对🇨🇳示好，表示愿意加入🇨🇳阵营

现在的阵势如下，🇨🇳🇷🇺🇬🇷库尔德人vs🇯🇵🇰🇷🇹🇷

[邵艾伦Alan（薄肌版） @AlanShao111]

对话孙宇晨：年轻人如何抓住AI时代的机会？

[Confusion @SsssChien]

@81PORNHUB @GetXBot

[Confusion @SsssChien]

@81PORNHUB @huoqubot_