clair health is so full of shit and im gonna prove it. two stanford cs students who have no bio experience think they can just rewrite the laws of physiology and raise $11.6 million for a wearable because they want to be the next oura. the investigation starts now.
thought experiment for understanding fragile systems. Picture a china vase and a gun. Assume the gun has 1000 bullets and each bullet has a 1% chance of hitting the vase . After the clip is empty, there is a 99.996% chance that the vase was hit.
Let's change the numbers. 100 bullets, each with a 1% chance of hitting the vase. Now we are left with a 63% chance that the vase was hit.
Let's change it again. 100 bullets, each with a 0.1% chance of hitting. Now we have a 9.5% chance that the vase is hit. If you had a 1000 bullets in this situation each with 0.1% chance of hitting, you get a 63% chance of hitting the vase.
I think this provides insight into how rare events can stack when we take into account rare events from many different directions that all can have an impact on one measurement or outcome (like the stock market).
people forget that there is more retail invested than ever before in prior bubbles. if panic selling sets in then the down move is gonna be very sharp.
i think ai developing is like starting with a musket and then getting a progressively better gun. even though the new gun is more accurate and shoots faster, you still need to spend time training how to aim and where you want to shoot in order to hit the target.