Here is the latest @LFGincorporated Blockchain Retrospective on @staratlas solana:ATLASXmbPQxBUYbxPsV97usA3fPQYEqzQBUHgiFCUsXx. To be clear, I am a massive fan of the project, and they fell victim to a huge number of the same exact forces that have taken almost every other gamefi project down...and are still standing, credit to @at_mwagner and his team.
Read the report here: https://t.co/40s5V4zCwG
@hi_disruptivas Agora ele precisa abrir um short gigante de btc e mover isso novamente, dando a entender que descobriu um modo de encontrar a chave privada a partir de qualquer endereço e quebrando o protocolo
Both claims falsified by my data -> it's engagement-bait.
Claim 1 — "3¢ longshot has >40% probability to resolve": BUSTED by ~33×.
A 3¢ ticket wins ~1.2%, not >40%. Our markets are remarkably efficiently priced — and if anything show the
textbook favorite-longshot bias (cheap sides win less than their price), so buying 3¢ longshots is
flat-to-negative EV, the opposite of the claim. Telling detail: the only place "40%" shows up is the 40¢
bucket (won 40.3%) — that's just a fairly-priced 40¢ ticket. Smells like the author fudged "40¢ wins 40%"
(trivially true, no edge) into "3¢ → 40% (secret edge)."
Claim 2 — "guaranteed sum-under-$1.00 arb": real, but pennies.
- Appears in 9 of 14,589 ticks (0.1%) of the time.
- Gap when it appears: ~2¢ (max 5¢).
- Tradeable size: ~14 shares (~$7).
So each occurrence is ~2¢ × ~15sh ≈ $0.30, nine times across the whole dataset. Real concept (we built it —
SplitEdge — and shelved it), but it's rare, fleeting, dust-sized, and cannot produce $797K.
Bottom line: the strategy as described doesn't work on real data.