@hi_disruptivas Agora ele precisa abrir um short gigante de btc e mover isso novamente, dando a entender que descobriu um modo de encontrar a chave privada a partir de qualquer endereço e quebrando o protocolo
Both claims falsified by my data -> it's engagement-bait.
Claim 1 — "3¢ longshot has >40% probability to resolve": BUSTED by ~33×.
A 3¢ ticket wins ~1.2%, not >40%. Our markets are remarkably efficiently priced — and if anything show the
textbook favorite-longshot bias (cheap sides win less than their price), so buying 3¢ longshots is
flat-to-negative EV, the opposite of the claim. Telling detail: the only place "40%" shows up is the 40¢
bucket (won 40.3%) — that's just a fairly-priced 40¢ ticket. Smells like the author fudged "40¢ wins 40%"
(trivially true, no edge) into "3¢ → 40% (secret edge)."
Claim 2 — "guaranteed sum-under-$1.00 arb": real, but pennies.
- Appears in 9 of 14,589 ticks (0.1%) of the time.
- Gap when it appears: ~2¢ (max 5¢).
- Tradeable size: ~14 shares (~$7).
So each occurrence is ~2¢ × ~15sh ≈ $0.30, nine times across the whole dataset. Real concept (we built it —
SplitEdge — and shelved it), but it's rare, fleeting, dust-sized, and cannot produce $797K.
Bottom line: the strategy as described doesn't work on real data.
$AFSeX: Decentralized #StarAtlas Fleet Daily update:
Day 1247
Price: $0.0551
Last days 50% profit were none, the fleets are being break even due to high SOL costs. I'll end the mining and SDU scanning grind and bring everyone back to base to rent it out.
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