Stephen Wertheim

America in the world, past and present. Senior Fellow @CarnegieEndow. Lecturer @YaleLawSch. Author @TomoTheWorld. For speaking: [email protected].

[Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim]

For years, critics of the Obama nuclear agreement claimed that all they wanted was a "better deal," accomplished through pressure but not violence. Today they stand exposed, after lining up behind a major attack that was launched by a proudly improvisational president in the absence of any looming threat and that yielded a deal they cannot defend. Going forward, their promises of cost-free coercion will sound like what they are: a drumbeat for war.

In @nytopinion, @Rob_Malley and I write about the opportunity that has emerged from Trump's Iran debacle:

[Carnegie Endowment @CarnegieEndow]

At this year’s NATO summit in Ankara, European leaders are focused on managing the transition toward a stronger Europe-led alliance amid America’s shifting commitment to the continent. @SophiaBesch, @iacoskun, Nate Reynolds, and @stephenwertheim break down the key factors shaping the summit.
https://t.co/rPBM8xKprN

[David Brady Jr. @realDavidBJr]

New book haul

[Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim]

Biggest surprise is the first part

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

U.S. BECOMES FIRST NATION TO HOST A FIFA WORLD CUP TEAM AND STRIKE THAT TEAM’S COUNTRY ON THE SAME DAY

[Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim]

@DanielBShapiro Yes, I'm not claiming and haven't claimed that one inevitably led to another.

[Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim]

I really do fully agree. It's just also true that the June 2025 war exhibited Trump's willingness to follow Israel's lead in using force against Iran, and to wage a war of opportunity, not tied to Iran's nuclear program crossing any particular threshold. There's no doubting the important differences between Midnight Hammer and Epic Fury, but it's also important to understand the connections.

[Dan Shapiro @DanielBShapiro]

Trump had every reason (and plenty of intel and analysis) to keep Iran under pressure & deterrence, but not go to war. Nothing had changed in the nuclear program from June 2025 to Feb 2026. But he didn’t have the discipline, & imagined he could achieve a Venezuela-style result.

[Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim]

Now that’s a headline

[Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim]

This is excellent.

[(((James Acton))) @james_acton32]

I'm on @CarnegieEndow's podcast with @JonKBateman to discuss Iran's nuclear program
👉Why the U.S. was forced to accept a bad deal
👉Why that bad deal is the best way forward
👉Why I'm pessimistic about preventing Iran from proliferating

https://t.co/bWbuOczYwH

[Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim]

Valid point. In another sense, though, Midnight Hammer put America and Israel on a path to Epic Fury. Having knocked back, but not out, Iran’s nuclear capabilities, Midnight Hammer left behind a wounded regime with greater incentive to get the bomb. And Iran’s minimal response to America’s one-and-done strikes — the very thing that made Midnight Hammer a relative success — encouraged the United States and Israel to view Tehran as a paper tiger and take advantage of the apparent opportunity to overthrow or neuter the regime.

[Dan Shapiro @DanielBShapiro]

Yes. This carefully defined mission achieved key operational objectives (significant setback of Iran’s nuclear program), plus critical deterrence.

The ill-defined and unconstrained use of force in Epic Fury, to which Iran had a credible counter, both failed to achieve the (overly broad) objectives and squandered the deterrence.

We need to learn from both.

[Jeet Heer @HeerJeet]

Did Trump also lose Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan? Or maybe the problem is deeper than Trump? Worth considering!

[(((James Acton))) @james_acton32]

I'm on @CarnegieEndow's podcast with @JonKBateman to discuss Iran's nuclear program
👉Why the U.S. was forced to accept a bad deal
👉Why that bad deal is the best way forward
👉Why I'm pessimistic about preventing Iran from proliferating

https://t.co/bWbuOczYwH

[Alan Eyre @AlanEyre1]

Money quote from this insightful, useful piece from @Rob_Malley:
"But the interim agreement is the wrong target. The problem is not the deal but the reckless war that preceded it..
...The terms of the deal are a submission not to Tehran but to reality."
#IranWar‌
https://t.co/HUnBqry5Zx via @ft

[Laura Rozen @lrozen]

Sen. Schatz (D-Hawaii): “I want to be really clear here. The mistake is not ending the war, it was starting it in the first place. Every day this war went on only compounded that catastrophe. And so we ought to be relieved that it may be over and that diplomacy is being given another chance, because it is the only viable path forward.”

https://t.co/b6JEKqy00d

[Robert Malley @Rob_Malley]

My new piece for @FT on the US/Iran deal — and my bottom line :

“The one smart thing Trump has done since starting this war was to end it.

No good purpose is served by decrying that.”

https://t.co/tTTjTOALyU

[Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim]

True on both counts

[Mark Dubowitz @mdubowitz]

We’re talking to the IRGC. It’s such a remarkable accomplishment. 😳

If Obama, Biden and Kerry bragged about this, they’d be excoriated.

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

A lot of Dem politicians are still reflexively hawkish on Iran, but they recognize that the war was a huge fiasco and there is little appetite in their base for more kinetic action. Trump's deal, imperfect though it is, offers at least a basis for pursuing future diplomacy--which was, and remains, the only viable policy.

[Background Briefing w/ Ian Masters @ianmastersmedia]

Today's Briefing: Eric Blanc @_ericblanc | Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim | Christopher Miller @ChristopherJM

https://t.co/RLAEldf4gV

[Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim]

"Some Democrats said their ranks are coming to a frustrating conclusion: Trump's war gave Iran the upper hand, so it's inevitable the U.S. will need to make significant concessions to avoid resuming the conflict, which voters in general and Democrats particularly oppose."

[Akbar Shahid Ahmed @AkbarSAhmed]

Democrats dislike Trump's diplomacy with Iran—but they're loath to disrupt it.

Their evolving position could hasten the party's shift toward a foreign policy reflecting their base: wary of militarism tied to Israel & exhausted with bipartisan hawkishness.
https://t.co/ta2t63CzC4

[Ali Vaez @AliVaez]

A must read by @Rob_Malley

[DBMaggi @db_maggi]

Excellent point in this article: the refusal of US politicians to shift on Israel-Palestine in the face of a public opinion change of tsunami proportions is likely to create an extreme reversal when the walls finally come crashing down.