Steve Muricchio

Individual investor and tech startup sales rep. Any tweets, comments, or shares are strictly my worthless opinion and in no way advice. Do your own DD

[Mr Deep-Value @mr_deepvalue]

Here's my simple strategy for beating the market:

Find businesses trading below 50% of their real-world tangible book value.

Throw away anything trading above 5x real-world free cash flow.

Throw away anything with net debt.

What's left are healthy, cash-generative businesses where the downside is largely protected by tangible assets.

Then size positions according to the durability of the cash flows.

The highest-quality businesses get the biggest allocations.

You don't need growth.

You don't need turnarounds.

You don't even need every investment to work.

You just need enough of the market to eventually recognise it was pricing healthy businesses as if they were already dead.

[Jason @DukeInShadows]

Fairfax seemingly days from buying IDBI Bank.
Looks like it will become the holdco for IIFL companies, Go Digit. In a way Watsa is using the playbook as the Canadian banks in the late 80s/90s, becoming vertically integrated financial supermarkets.
Nobody in the West knows Indian financials or is as well connected as Watsa is. $FFH.TO $FIH.U.NE

[Mr Deep-Value @mr_deepvalue]

Walter Schloss spent nearly 50 years proving you could beat Wall Street with a pencil, Value Line, a tiny office, and the emotional range of a well-maintained filing cabinet. He did not forecast GDP, interview CEOs, model TAMs, or pretend to know where interest rates were going. He bought companies below book value, avoided debt, owned a ridiculous number of ugly little stocks, and waited for arithmetic to embarrass everyone. Buffett called him one of the Superinvestors. The lesson is almost offensive in its simplicity: buy dollars for 40 cents, diversify enough to survive being wrong, and let the market eventually remember that assets are real.

[Kingdom Capital @kingdomcapadv]

Assume this is what's hitting $EVC today even though it has nothing to do with their story

[Kingdom Capital @kingdomcapadv]

@stressed_assets I think you can make 30-40% on $NLOP as they finish liquidating their portfolio in 6-12 months. Estimates below which I've attempted to be conservative.

Being actively marketed: iHeart and Safelite
BCBS, APCO, and Arcfield are in stages of negotiations for MF conversion.

[Kingdom Capital @kingdomcapadv]

Kingdom Capital Advisors Q2-26 letter is now available: https://t.co/gviRsoqNqu

[Kingdom Capital @kingdomcapadv]

Nothing wrong with trying to play the most popular trades, but I do truly believe spending time on $EVC here is ultimately a much better return on effort than something like $SPCX if you’re running a PA or smaller fund

[Kingdom Capital @kingdomcapadv]

What are other businesses trading around 5x FCF with improving backdrop and net cash balance sheets?

I’ll go first $NCMI

[Kingdom Capital @kingdomcapadv]

Entravision $EVC math is pretty simple:

Media assets don't earn much, but thanks to the spectrum & FCC dereg, there's a realistic path to $500m of value

Meanwhile, Smadex, against the full $800m EV, is priced at a fraction of peers and growing faster.

Value guys afraid to buy because "they missed it" and widow of the former CEO has been selling

But there's zero street coverage and the growth guys barely know this exists (yet)

[Colin King @valuedontlie]

$NVRI

$15/sh distribution and a few days of when-issued trading for NewEnviri

[Kingdom Capital @kingdomcapadv]

It has come back in a bit, so $NLOP looking very attractive here again. $22m net cash end of Q1 with $23m of rent left, about a $150m EV. My estimates for remaining asset value still get me to around $15/share NAV:

[Kingdom Capital @kingdomcapadv]

Turns out $EVC is growing faster and more profitable than SpaceX!

Hispanic broadcasting > space exploration

[Kingdom Capital @kingdomcapadv]

Update: $25m
https://t.co/a1S0m22leC

[Kingdom Capital @kingdomcapadv]

Kinda impressive $EVC only down 8% on the widow of the former CEO blowing out being 75% of the days volume?

https://t.co/etwtycpdM4

[Real Assets Value @RealAssetsValue]

$NLOP update - follow @kingdomcapadv to get the news before it hits the press (they posted both the Banker's site and North American Lighting sale)

[Kingdom Capital @kingdomcapadv]

The $GO insiders keep buying

[Kingdom Capital @kingdomcapadv]

Magnera reported in February and maintained guide, and affirmed it again today in their Sidoti presentation despite the recent commodity volatility. $MAGN is hedged on energy, and passes through materials costs. Stock down 35% in a month anyway

[Kingdom Capital @kingdomcapadv]

"Notably, vinyl purchases accounted for 186,000 of Styles’ first week — the biggest week for an album on vinyl by a male artist in the modern era (since Luminate began electronically tracking sales in 1991)" $AENT
https://t.co/2pKngQcI5P

[Kingdom Capital @kingdomcapadv]

Still here. Potential tariff refund is ~10% of EV (my estimate) which would also put run-rate EBITDA around $40m. Topline still growing. Have about 15 Princess Polly stores in US and said yesterday at UBS they see expansion running to around 100...