WriteDownCapital

Equity analyst. Where goodwill goes to die. Not investment advice.

[WriteDownCapital @WriteDownCap]

@amitisinvesting @GavinSBaker Why wouldn't one of the open source labs just become the new frontier lab, with the associated pricing power per intelligence? They'd see enough ROI to be the new spend commitment. You just need one player to have the ROI, doesn't necessarily have to be OAI or Anthropic

[Zeitgeist @zeitgeist_labs]

https://t.co/xOoRoKIOPJ

[WriteDownCapital @WriteDownCap]

$CPRT TTM EPS was $1.62. With volumes down through at least F27 on share shift + PGR PIFs outgrowth going to RBA + operating margin compression offset by (value-destructive) buybacks, could optimistically see $1.68 EPS in F28 driven entirely by share count reduction. This market generously willing to pay 10-11x P/E for a broken compounder with no EPS growth, gets you a $17-$19 stock so another 40-45% downside from current prices.

[WriteDownCapital @WriteDownCap]

Expecting more volumes to shift from $CPRT to $RBA in the next two quarters, and more insurance carriers to pilot test the two companies in the next 12-18 months. Hearing pick up to auction sale days has been steadily improving at IAA and is now firmly leading Copart.

[WriteDownCapital @WriteDownCap]

Expecting more volumes to shift from $CPRT to $RBA in the next two quarters, and more insurance carriers to pilot test the two companies in the next 12-18 months. Hearing pick up to auction sale days has been steadily improving at IAA and is now firmly leading Copart.

[WriteDownCapital @WriteDownCap]

Not a bear structurally but think we could have near term issues. Realistic bear case would be digestion in my mind or exogenous shock (oil / higher for longer rates). Digestion driven by better model distillation or due to capacity hiccups because some rando monopoly shitco holds up the queue for everything downstream and all these orders convert later than market expects.

Inference specific chips like CBRS massively improving yields or new ASICs producing much higher tokens per watt at such low latencies that no one cares about incremental token efficiency anymore, but I doubt we’re close to that with agentic and sub-agentic orchestration still yet to truly ramp

[WriteDownCapital @WriteDownCap]

$CEVA nice Q1 2026 revenue and EPS beats. AI IP licensing revenue up 18% while royalties were solidly flat despite low end smartphone market weakness. $AAPL modem royalty revenues still set to ramp later this year. Longer term play on edge AI, robotics, and even LEO satellites.

[WriteDownCapital @WriteDownCap]

@unknownalpha420 @EquityBrian Sneaky robotics play

[WriteDownCapital @WriteDownCap]

@EquityBrian $CEVA, their IP will gain iPhone modem share and then will benefit even more as AI compute moves more towards edge applications

[WriteDownCapital @WriteDownCap]

UBS getting bulled up on $CEVA gaining content with new $AAPL internal modem launches in 2026 and 2027... then onto the edge AI and robotics ramp in 2027-2028 😉

[WriteDownCapital @WriteDownCap]

$CEVA gonna be a sneaky good robotics play everyone will talk about in 2027-2028. But first, some share gain over $QCOM with the new $AAPL internal modem ramp up in 2026, which uses CEVA's IP

[WriteDownCapital @WriteDownCap]

$RBA putting up the numbers again in Q1-2026:
- Organic GTV up 9% y/y , Total GTV up 13% y/y
- Automotive GTV up 7%, CC&T up 16% organic, up 27% including deals
- EBITDA up 11% y/y
- NGAAP EPS up 13% y/y

Raises 2026 guidance:
- GTV guidance to up 6-9% y/y (5-8% prior)
- EBITDA guidance now $1,485-1,545 million ($1,470-1,530 million prior)
- Guidance doesn't include BigIron (probably 2-3% GTV contribution) or potential CAT events (usually 1% of GTV in prior years)

Oh, and still eating $CPRT's lunch: "Last quarter, we announced an agreement in principle with one of our largest partners, and I am pleased to report that it has now been fully executed."

[WriteDownCapital @WriteDownCap]

Oh look $RBA basically just said they won both Progressive and State Farm which have like 40% of the salvage market, and you’re telling me you’re still long $CPRT into the print tomorrow? 😬

[WriteDownCapital @WriteDownCap]

@VanIsleInvestor Made a terrible round trip in the stock and still doesn't understand the fundamental thesis lol

[Yogi @Houseofyogi]

Spirit Airlines died tonight at the hands of the socialist crusader, Elizabeth Warren

She must be so proud to add another casket to her achievements.

Tonight at 3am, Spirit turns off the lights. 14,000 jobs gone. 30+ smaller airports lose service.

JetBlue offered $3.8 BILLION in cash to buy Spirit in 2022. Shareholders, flight attendants union, literally everyone voted yes.

The combined company would have held 9% of the US market against a Big 4 that already owned 80%.

For anyone who understands numbers: 9% isn’t a monopoly against 80%.

Warren said no.

She wrote letters. She pressured Buttigieg. Biden’s DOJ sued. A federal judge killed the deal in January 2024.

Her argument: the merger would cost consumers $1 billion a year.

Now look at her collateral damage she dusts under the rug.

510 pilots gone in the months after. 1,800 flight attendants furloughed in December.

14,000 jobs in 2023. 7,500 last week. Zero tonight.

And that’s just the people in Spirit uniforms.

Catering goes. Fuel guys go. Baggage crews, gate agents, airport coffee shops, hotels and rental cars in 70 cities Spirit flew to. Every airline job carries 3 more on its back.

40,000 people out of work because of one woman’s moronic crusade against the market.

And the math ain’t mathing.

Spirit abandoned 90 routes during the death spiral. Fares on those routes are up 14% on average. Oakland to Newark: $135 to $288. Fort Myers to San Juan: $92 to $219. Kansas City to Newark up 66%.

That’s reality. Not some BS number from a “study.”

So @SenWarren tell me how this saves the consumer money?

Cheap carriers in a market drop fares 21% across the board. Southwest did this in the 90s and saved Americans $68 BILLION over 20 years.

Warren killed it. That’s what moronic politicians led by socialism do.

Then with her own blind arrogance, she tweeted Spirit’s collapse is “a Biden win for flyers.”

A win.

14,000 people are reading termination letters tonight.

And she’s taking credit.

This is socialism in 2026.

A senator who’s never made payroll thinks she knows how to run a market better than the people who own and work in the company.

She saved you a billion on imaginary paper.

She cost you ten times that in real life.

She didn’t protect consumers from anything.

14,000+ will go from working to welfare.

She will make sure to blame billionaires, hardworking tax payers, AI, capitalism and whatever monster they will make up tomorrow hiding under your bed.

Higher taxes. Fewer jobs. More expensive everything.

She called it a win. I hope you enjoy winning.

[WriteDownCapital @WriteDownCap]

@AntiLeftMemes You can always make a new legal friend

[WriteDownCapital @WriteDownCap]

@victor_privin Bang

[WriteDownCapital @WriteDownCap]

$CEVA gonna be a sneaky good robotics play everyone will talk about in 2027-2028. But first, some share gain over $QCOM with the new $AAPL internal modem ramp up in 2026, which uses CEVA's IP

[WriteDownCapital @WriteDownCap]

@joinyellowbrick should not treat as cash expense, should dilute share count. theoretically is the same answer, but in reality it's not because shares can be forfeited, equivalent cash bonus would almost always be less than share grants

[WriteDownCapital @WriteDownCap]

pretty much no scenario in which the homeowner comes out ahead of a renter who can invest their excess savings

[VEO @vrexec]

I'm doing some back of the envelope math on buying vs renting.

Say you buy a $1M house with 20% down at about 6% mortgage rate and plan to stay there for five years.

Your principal paydown in the first five years is about $57,000, but you've paid about $230,000 in interest.

You've also paid roughly $100,000 in property taxes, insurance, and maintenance.

Say the house appreciated 2.5% every year — so when you sell it's worth about $1.13 million.

Your all-in costs to sell are about 7.5% — brokerage commissions, transfer taxes, attorney fees, title insurance, and the inevitable post-inspection negotiation. On a $1.13M sale that's about $85K in fees.

So you net about $1.046M. You still owe $743K on the mortgage. You walk away with about $303K in cash — your $200K down payment back, your $57K in principal, and about $46K in net profit from appreciation.

Your non-recoverable costs — interest, property tax, insurance, maintenance — were about $330K over five years, or about $5,500/month. That's your effective rent.

But you "made" $46K selling, or about $770/month — so your effective rent was about $4,700/month.

Not bad, but you tied up $200K for five years to get there. And if appreciation was 1.5% instead of 2.5%, that net gain basically disappears and you're paying $5,400+/month in effective rent.

And this assumes there's appreciation at all — and that something doesn't go wrong with your house that needs a major remodel or repair.

On a five-year horizon at 6% rates, you need everything to go right on appreciation just to make ownership competitive with renting.

The transaction costs eat most of your upside.

What am I missing? Anything?

[WriteDownCapital @WriteDownCap]

@mortgagetruth @vrexec market returns were even better with those start dates for the renter...

[WriteDownCapital @WriteDownCap]

@vrexec need market return assumptions (~10% per year) for the renter assuming they put the down payment + any money leftover from above rent in equities... math always comes out ahead for the renter, even off the bottom from 2012 or 2020 (market returns were even better)