Steven

Ex-ETH quant. Build-in-public, open notebook.

[Steven @StevenBattilana]

Next: the best strategy in the world earns nothing if you never get the trade.

Which chart in your deck deletes the crash?

https://t.co/VHukxPllfF

[Steven @StevenBattilana]

Banks deleted a country from the chart, then sold it to your pension.

My 31 August deadline is eleven days out. Backtest: eureka. Live money: nice try.

🧵 THREAD 🧵 1/7 ⬇️

[Steven @StevenBattilana]

The difference is the incentive.

They have a fee structure. I was just not disciplined enough.

The blame sits with me.

[Steven @StevenBattilana]

Next: a way to make any strategy look profitable. Banks sell it as QIS.

Which of your wins was actually pure luck?

https://t.co/YnzxJR6bwJ

[Steven @StevenBattilana]

I lost 122 times on Polymarket so you don't have to.

I gave myself until 31 August to prove this makes money. The first real batch has landed.

🧵 THREAD 🧵 1/7 ⬇️

[Steven @StevenBattilana]

My breakeven sits at 60.1%. I am at 64.1%, so I clear it.

About 1,300 settled trades would end the argument. I have only 340.

[Steven @StevenBattilana]

Next episode: win rate is not edge. I show you the number that is.

What did you delete and never miss?

https://t.co/BgJYxXEhtD

[Steven @StevenBattilana]

60% right and still losing. That's forecasting.

By 31 August my bot has to be profitable. So far I have mostly been fixing plumbing.

🧵 THREAD 🧵 1/5 ⬇️

[Steven @StevenBattilana]

Then I built a machine to record it all.

166GB of feeds so far, written straight to files and read straight back.

No database in the path. The one I had was doing nothing but slowing me down.

[Steven @StevenBattilana]

Next episode: why I stopped trading wars and moved to five-minute Bitcoin windows.

Place your bet: green or red by 31 August?

https://t.co/57Ksl9A9XP

[Steven @StevenBattilana]

I bet civilisation ends by Christmas. Peace broke out. Six bets, dead overnight.

By 31 August this bot has to be profitable. So far, civilisation is winning.

🧵 THREAD 🧵 1/5 ⬇️

[Steven @StevenBattilana]

So they were never correlated positions. They were one question, answered four times. A deal by 31 July is also a deal by 31 August.

No risk layer built on price history catches that. Correlation lives in the returns. This lived in the resolution rules.