steven

[steven @StevenKu888]

@toy59496 Interesting

[Northstar @NorthstarCharts]

@Casey12248 @maneco1964 This was my silver roadmap https://t.co/wczS3H9zVn

[steven @StevenKu888]

@ASX__Trader Great call, once again mate

[steven @StevenKu888]

@LonglivHumanity @BikoKonstantin1 Gotta admit the probability is getting more n more real for the downside

Do you own property in geelong? I have had for 10 year, council val went backward in the last 5 years :)

Which investor will be there to buy some of the 40% renters surburb, with their servicing 30% down?

[Louis Christopher @LouiChristopher]

Ok, here is a view you might find of interest:

Let's assume the Australian housing market is indeed adjusting to the new property tax changes.

Let's assume it is indeed investors showing less interest in the market.

Now could one 'model' this change of interest?

I think you can.

It can be modelled based on one more assumption - investors are rational and will only be interested in buying into the market once again if the acquisition rental yield rises to a point where it completely compensates them for the loss in the tax benefits.

However, this assumption forgets there may be a transition of renters turning themselves into FHBs.

And it also forgets we are going into these tax changes with a rental shortage, driven in large part by surging population growth.

It also assumes everything else is equal, such as stable interest rates. But they are not stable and one can convincingly argue the housing market is correcting now due to the recent rises in the cash rate.

However, if you were to just keep everything else equal for one moment, I estimate investors will demand acquisition rental yields rise between 0.5% to 1.5% for houses and 0.2% to 0.9% for units (variation reflects different assumptions on tax, growth and holding period - and note the yield change on units wouldn't need to be as high, as units tend not to deliver as much capital growth as houses, which makes the new CGT regime less punitive on them).

Now if you are still with me and in broad agreement with my assumptions and caveats, having yields rise means prices come down and/or rents go up. Most likely a bit of both.

Here is a table (below) I have created that models this out based on proportional changes. E.g. rents and prices equally adjust; more impact on housing prices than rents etc.

One more assumption - this happens over a two-to-three-year period for the rent-led component, and possibly longer if FHB substitution does part of the work.

And I think the adjustment will be close to evenly split between prices and rents.

And the yield gap between houses and units will narrow materially - currently around 1.1%, on my central estimate compressing to around 0.65%. That actually runs against the usual presentation of units as the yield play. In this package they come out structurally more robust than houses, because most of the hit is the CGT change, and units' lower historical capital growth makes that change less punitive.

I'll be tracking SQM's asking-rent series through 2026 to see which path the market takes. If it holds at +7% or accelerates, the rent-led adjustment is dominant. If it cools meaningfully, FHB substitution is doing more of the work and the price leg becomes more important.

Happy to hear your views.

[steven @StevenKu888]

@MarkoMatvikov @8INK5 You can only count the original loan

[steven @StevenKu888]

@GregLucas07 @MarkoMatvikov If you re truly negative when you rent out yes, of course you can do that

But only fit people that actuallt have money to go out and buy again..

Or else you rent and extract that arbitrage

[steven @StevenKu888]

@GibberCapital @MarkoMatvikov Hmm

1. Unless you bought in the last 4 years, when you rent out you re likely wont be negative to begin with

2. With kid, not easy to relocate

3. Conveyancer and REA wont risk their license on your purchase

[steven @StevenKu888]

@daphan5 @AvidCommentator @PeteWargent Do you work as a broker? Which lenders dont factor in neg gearing? I want to know because i am a broker

[IncomeSharks @IncomeSharks]

@MrMikeInvesting Anyone chasing AI or Semis here instead of Rare Earths is missing an easy play

[IncomeSharks @IncomeSharks]

$USAR - Narrative is about as obvious as you can get. Rare earth prices are exploding, AI and semis are exploding, and you need them for both. First major year of revenue starts this yea, forecast ramps up to billions in 3 years. Wouldn't mind lower prices, wouldn't mind ATHs.

[AI Edge @aiedge_]

https://t.co/n3fXACzx0l

[steven @StevenKu888]

@SpachusAus How to make decision from this? Need comparable period! And more data, this median thing is a bit whimsicl

[Ihtisham sikandar @Gharsanayyy]

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[steven @StevenKu888]

@RealRickRule Whats gonna happen to real estate then

[Graddhy - Commodities TA+Cycles @graddhybpc]

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Go with the service that has, actually, been on track all along.
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[Rick Rule @RealRickRule]

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[NIJ Ruvos @nahidulislam404]

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[Miles Deutscher @milesdeutscher]

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[Aina @Aina_Ai2]

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