Steven Rollheiser

[Steven Rollheiser @StevenRolheiser]

https://t.co/xsmY57zh30

[Steven Rollheiser @StevenRolheiser]

@PiusSprenger Ab 10 Millionen verkaufe ich erst.

[seliseli46 @seliseli_46]

My Personal Analysis Altcoin Season and Market Dynamics

An altcoin season typically begins when capital rotates from Bitcoin into altcoins, eventually driving BTC dominance down to the support zone of around 39 percent.

When the Altcoin Index reaches 75, investors should consider taking some profits, especially with high-cap altcoins, as this index primarily tracks large coins rather than low- and micro-cap high-risk assets. These tend to move either toward the end of the cycle or very rapidly, depending on market conditions and hype. Some low-cap assets can ignite early, as seen in previous cycles with XRP and AI-focused low caps, where both narratives gained momentum simultaneously. The crypto market remains unpredictable and anything is possible.

Two key problems to consider

Problem 1 BTC Dominance and False Altseason Signals:

Over the past three years, BTC dominance has steadily climbed from 39 percent to 65 percent. Despite multiple predictions of an altcoin season, most have proven inaccurate, leading to significant losses in altcoin portfolios.

Currently, only about 20 percent of altcoins have outperformed BTC in recent months. This does not indicate capital rotation but rather shows that BTC dominance is still in control. Until this number exceeds 71 percent, a real altseason is not yet on the table.

Problem 2 Historical Altcoin Cycles:

Historically, altcoin seasons tend to begin around 320 days after a Bitcoin bottom, which suggests that May 2025 could be the time. That sounds promising, but there are still some uncertainties.

What needs to happen before the real altseason begins, BTC dominance must drop below 54 percent.
The Fed must officially end quantitative tightening and signal interest rate cuts.
Bitcoin must maintain a new all-time high while capital flows into altcoins rather than out of them.

Until these conditions are met, any upward movement might just be a recovery pump or influenced by crypto traders manipulating the market.

Strategic profit-taking approach:

Since it is uncertain whether the Fed will act this year, many expect action, but there is no guarantee. Investors may want to balance holding positions while cautiously realizing profits. A prudent approach could involve selling in small tranches of 5 percent, but only if certain conditions are met:

- BTC dominance continues to decline, BTC reaches a new all-time high or moves toward 110k 115k 125k.

- We are in a phase of extreme greed, not just at the beginning of the greed cycle.

- Altcoin Index surpasses 75 and BTC dominance falls to 55 percent 50 percent or 45 percent.

- Gains of at least 200 to 300 percent have been achieved.

This strategy allows for gradual profit realization without selling everything at once, as would be the case in a parabolic run.

Conclusion Bullish or Bearish:

If bullish momentum continues until the next FOMC meeting and actions are taken, a major altcoin season could unfold, if no significant changes occur, the current recovery run might fade, leading to another bearish phase until the Fed intervenes - "if" it does...

#BTCDOMINANCE #Bitcoin #Altcoins #Crypto

[Steven Rollheiser @StevenRolheiser]

@Chefstrobel @WilliB00 Chef ist king

[Steven Rollheiser @StevenRolheiser]

@Chefstrobel @catajgrr Stark Bruder

[Steven Rollheiser @StevenRolheiser]

@Chefstrobel Wäre eine gute Idee

[Steven Rollheiser @StevenRolheiser]

@Chefstrobel Stark Bruder weiter so

[Steven Rollheiser @StevenRolheiser]

Gm

[Steven Rollheiser @StevenRolheiser]

@kris 100k incoming baby