Steve Singiser

Husband. Father. Son. Brother. Teacher. Coach. Contributor—The Downballot. Come for elections nerdom, stay for bad sports takes.

[Steve Singiser @StevenSingiser]

Born in Navarro County. Back home in Navarro County.

Worth spending 1505 miles in a car with this guy (though our wives undoubtedly helped with the sanity).

[Jim Singiser @JimSingiser]

Mom is back home in Texas. Supposed to rain all day, but Mom held the weather off so we could have a beautiful service. 30 minutes later the skies opened up & we got a summer Texas storm with strong wind, a heavy downpour & thunder. Mom’s favorite type of weather! 🙏🏽 #PromiseKept

[Steve Singiser @StevenSingiser]

@JoshKraushaar @brithume In my gov class, I show a Hume clip defending his aggression towards Clinton. If his boss knowingly was doing the bidding of Clinton and demanding he do the same, he'd have quit on the spot.

He likes that Bari Weiss is turning CBS into Temu Fox News. No further wisdom than that.

[Steve Singiser @StevenSingiser]

I will never understand that his insane need for adulation, but evidently it will lead him to see a few hundred cheers while 15,000 other people boo him out of the building.

[Stefan Bondy @SbondyNBA]

Post Exclusive: Donald Trump plans to attend Game 3 of the NBA Finals.

MSG performed security walkthroughs in preparation for his potential visit, per sources.

Mamdani is also expected to be there.

https://t.co/e6vaH5STwR

[Steve Singiser @StevenSingiser]

Check that. Was going off a foggy fiftysomething year-old memory, when I had the actual number in front of me. It was 77K new votes.

[Steve Singiser @StevenSingiser]

So it begins--LA County drops their first post-election batch. It is small one (only about 50K votes), but it moved Becerra overall in the county from 28.9 to 29.3 percent, so fair to say it was quite blue.

[Steve Singiser @StevenSingiser]

@Taniel Yep. 77K. Was just going to correct. Faulty memory had be thinking it was 956K mail votes before, when evidently it was 926K

[Steve Singiser @StevenSingiser]

So it begins--LA County drops their first post-election batch. It is small one (only about 50K votes), but it moved Becerra overall in the county from 28.9 to 29.3 percent, so fair to say it was quite blue.

[Steve Singiser @StevenSingiser]

@NickRiccardi @Taniel City is about 40% of the county population, I think. Certainly a smaller proportion of reg voters (suburbs have higher registration % by a lot)

But his term was good while ago, and it did not end of a particularly positive note, so I am not shocked that support went elsewhere.

[Steve Singiser @StevenSingiser]

@yFactr That one small batch that just dropped (about 47K votes, IIRC) moved the Dems overall to 67-32, so if that's an indictor of what is to come? Oh mama.

(It's probably not, bc you're absolutely right--wait too early to draw any conclusions)

[Steve Singiser @StevenSingiser]

FWIW, and I'm just a guy with a calculator like anyone else, I'm guessing there is still a significant reservoir of votes out here in CA, more than pre-election estimates presumed.

I am thinking north, and perhaps a good bit north, of 4M.

Time will tell if I'm an idiot! (1/3)

[Steve Singiser @StevenSingiser]

Good lord, that's a lot of ballots, and kudos to LAC R-R for highlighting the importance of this.

[Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk @LACountyRRCC]

Many voters choose to return their Vote by Mail ballot on Election Day. Those ballots are valid and deserve the same level of care, security, and verification as every other ballot cast in the election.

Taking the time for work ensures every eligible vote is counted accurately.

[Steve Singiser @StevenSingiser]

Not for nothing, but New World Screwworm would be one hell of a name for an industrial metal band.

(In all seriousness, though, this sounds incredibly bad and glad to see Talarico and his team are right on top of it.)

[JT Ennis @jt_ennis]

Official Statement from @JamesTalarico on Protecting Texas Cattle Industry from New World Screwworm

[Steve Singiser @StevenSingiser]

@yFactr I have the gov vote at 58/41 right now? LA County I have as 66/33.

I don't harbor the hopes of some of my left-leaning friends that think Hilton and Pratt can get knocked out of the top two, but I do think they could get a sweat.

[Steve Singiser @StevenSingiser]

@devinlavelle Yeah, I think people still preferred the convenience of the local box, based on how many folks I saw there Monday (when I dropped off my ballot), and Tuesday (when my wife and daughter did).

Interesting to see if that has an impact, though!

[Dj @DjsokeSpeaking]

Just a psa that the initial unprocessed ballot estimates in places like Orange and LA will be undercounts

So if you’re trying to game out the % of outstanding vote Raman needs, for example, you should leave a little wiggle room for more votes than what’s estimated tonight

[Steve Singiser @StevenSingiser]

@KevDGrussing My guess, based on turnout to date per county and assembly district? Very.

But, again, past is not prologue, so I can look like a complete moron come Friday. LOL.

[Steve Singiser @StevenSingiser]

@Penguin57a It's a fair question. One thing I noticed is that the few reliably red counties we have here already are close to their 2022 turnouts.

I am guessing Rs had no reason to hang onto their ballots once Trump anointed Hilton, and so they didn't.

[Steve Singiser @StevenSingiser]

If it is true, and I absolutely believe it is, that Dems held onto their ballots until the last couple days, then this could be the high water mark for Rs in terms of their support.

If so....that's not great for them.

[Steve Singiser @StevenSingiser]

@ASDem @DCCyclone All I know is (and anecdotes aren't data) that my wife and daughter went to the drop box yesterday around 5 PM, and there was a *line*. LOL.

I also dropped mine off 6/1, which I have never, ever done. Usually have it in 2-3 weeks early.

[Steve Singiser @StevenSingiser]

Is he the best vehicle for this complaint? Lol....Nah.

But is he absolutely right about this? A hundred percent.

Trump's corruption seems to bore the press, perhaps because it is so all-consuming and rampant. And their blasé attitude about it has had dire consequences.

[Hunter Biden @HunterBiden]

So let me get this straight.

Jake Tapper is focused on attacking my Mom.

Jared and Ivanka are building a private island paradise on Albanian protected land.

Don Jr married the daughter of Epstein’s banker, and a startup his fund backs just got a record $620M Pentagon loan.

Eric is taking an Israeli drone company public for $1.5B in the middle of a war with Iran that nobody wanted.

And I know: “But what about your paintings, Hunter?”

Please.

[Steve Singiser @StevenSingiser]

I could be wrong, but I suspect we will see a blue shift, and a substantial one, at that. Turnout in blue counties counted thus far is miniascule compared to red spots like Kern County.

(Thus, queue all the usual suspects to launch into their biennial shit hemorrhage about it.)

[Steve Singiser @StevenSingiser]

Here's my reasoning.

Turnout should be several notches higher than in 2022, given that there was a hot gov's race on this ballot, and a snoozer in 2022.

What's more--we know both anecdotally and through available data that a *shit ton* of Dems held onto their ballots. (2/3)

[Steve Singiser @StevenSingiser]

@cardinals150 FWIW..I think CA can and should move up the postmark deadline, if only to stop folks from having this inane back and forth every two years.

[Steve Singiser @StevenSingiser]

In case you were wondering why the delay here in California.

It’s not some nebulous fraud. It’s to avoid fraud.

[Devin Lavelle @devinlavelle]

@Fairlawgirl96 @ASDem Curing ballots is a lot of work, but that's a small fraction of the ballot. The primary issue is that mail ballots received over the weekend through election day are not processed until after all in-person votes are counted to ensure no one votes twice.