Today was truly rare. An all-time high for the S&P 500, but only 12 stocks in the index made a 52-week high.
Since 1999, we've only seen five readings that weak or worse
The market never stops surprising, and there’s always something to be in awe of.
Today is one of those days. Since 1950, this has happened only 4 other times.
The S&P 500 $SPX is set to open above both its 200 day and 50 day moving averages in one move.
A day to remember.
The S&P 500 triggered a rare technical event today, gapping above both its 50D and 200D moving averages simultaneously.
This looked weird to me, so I did some digging.
Since 1950, this specific signal has occurred only four times. In every instance, the index faced significant pullbacks shortly after. The average three month drawdown following the signal is -9.51%, with the worst three month drawdown reaching -12.92% during 2018.
Historically this has always been an exhaustion gap rather than a sustainable rally.
Maybe this time is different.
US technology stocks have rarely ever been this cheap:
The S&P 500 Information Technology index is now trading at just a 4% forward P/E premium to the S&P 500, the lowest since January 2019.
This percentage has fallen -32 points since October 2025, one of the largest discounts on record.
In other words, tech stocks are the cheapest relative to the broader market in 7 years.
By comparison, the technology sector was ~47% more expensive than the S&P 500 at the June 2024 peak.
Tech stocks are now on track to become cheaper than the S&P 500 for the 1st time since 2017.
Is it time to buy tech?
What just happened?
At 2:30 PM ET today, CBS News reported that President Trump was considering "boots on the ground" in Iran.
Then, at 3:43 PM ET, President Trump said "I don't want to do a ceasefire with Iran," with the S&P 500 hitting a new 2026 low.
Exactly 90 minutes later, at 5:13 PM ET, President Trump said the US is "considering winding down" the war with Iran.
Between the 3:43 PM ET and 5:13 PM ET comments, the S&P 500 had already risen nearly +1% on NO news.
By 6:15 PM ET, the S&P 500 rallied +1.8% from its low, adding +$900 BILLION in market cap.
Markets are now closed until Monday.
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Cybersecurity is growing fast.
$PANW
Platform consolidator. Converging network, cloud, SOC into one integrated stack. Forcing vendor rationalization across large enterprises.
$CRWD
Endpoint + identity fabric. Single lightweight agent feeds telemetry across endpoint, cloud, identity. Data scale drives expansion.
$ZS
Zero Trust Exchange. Removes users from corporate network entirely. Cloud proxy replaces VPN-era architecture.
$NET
Connectivity Cloud at the edge. Secures apps, users, APIs in front of the internet. Network scale is the moat.
$MSFT
Embedded security baseline. Protection bundled across Azure, M365, Windows. Distribution advantage few can match.
$FTNT
ASIC-driven performance edge. High-throughput firewalls + SASE at strong price-performance. Hardware roots, platform evolution.
$CHKP
Prevention-first focus. Infinity architecture spans network, cloud, workspace. Stability and margin discipline define strategy.
$NTSK
Data-centric SASE. Deep DLP visibility controls how data moves across SaaS and AI apps, not just who accesses it.
$S
Autonomous defense model. AI-driven Singularity platform automates detection and response across domains.
$OKTA
Neutral identity layer. Connects any user to any stack across multi-cloud environments. Governance expanding beyond SSO.
$SAIL
Identity governance depth. Defines who gets access and why. Focused on compliance-heavy enterprise environments.
$CYBR
Privileged access vault. Secures admin credentials attackers target first. Now core identity layer inside PANW.
$WIZ
Agentless cloud visibility. Snapshot-based risk detection across AWS, Azure, GCP. Now embedded into Google Cloud.
$DDOG
Observability meets security. Uses logs, metrics, traces to detect threats inside live applications.
$RBRK
Cyber resilience layer. Immutable backups + clean recovery. Designed for breach assumption, not breach prevention.
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Major Reversion Signal: Is This Software's Comeback?
The software ETF $IGV fell 11% over 3-days ending 2/5/2026.
Then it soared 3.5% on 2/6/2026.
This is incredibly rare ... and bullish.
There have been a total of 4 instances where IGV fell at least 11% over a 3-day span and on the 4th day bounced at least 2.85%:
- Once in 2011
- Twice during March 2020 COVID-19 crash
- Once in September 2020
- And just now on February 6th 2026
In all instances, no exceptions, $IGV gained 1, 3, 6, & 12 months later.
Another great Signal Study by @lukedowney ...
Now, keep in mind - this has only happened a few times and software has been slaughtered over the last 6 months.
Many believe software businesses are being eaten alive by AI and AI startups. But the reality is switching costs and mistakes after a switch mean they're not going anywhere, anytime soon.
Sure, business will drop, but they're not going out of business!
Their valuations are much more reasonable now and inline with the market. So I'm hopeful that this Signal Study plays out well for us over the next year.
But, I'll cover more on how to diversify away from software later today.
Eli Lilly v. Novo Nordisk
$LLY Mounjaro: $7.4B, +110% YoY
$NVO Ozempic: $5B, +7% YoY
$LLY Zepbound: $4.3B, +123% YoY
$NVO Wegovy: $3.4B, +25% YoY
Eli Lilly is pulling ahead in the weight-loss drug category.