Stock Counsel

Not financial or legal advice.

[Stock Counsel @Stockcounsel]

I was previously against lowering rates, but I change my mind. I think lowering rates gives me the best odds of seeing 10%+ yields on 10Y and 30Y US bonds. Thank you @SecScottBessent for making me see the light.

Do your thing @federalreserve

[Stock Counsel @Stockcounsel]

@AIStockSavvy When did this analyst previously raise the PT to $109? A couple months ago when it was going up? Now that it’s trending down they’re lowering the PT? Dumb and useless analyst.

[Stock Counsel @Stockcounsel]

@zerohedge I’ve changed my mind. I’m now in favor of lowering rates. I think that increases the odds that I will see 10% yields on 10 and 30 year US bonds.

[Stock Counsel @Stockcounsel]

@AdamHoltererer Muse Spark 1.3 has been excellent in my testing and with that price point to boot there is no point to any other model.

[Stock Counsel @Stockcounsel]

@adayaratna7t7 @Jason @nvidia @JensenHuang Nice subtle pump of your $SPCX bags

[Stock Counsel @Stockcounsel]

@Jason @nvidia @JensenHuang Funny thing to say one day after Muse Spark 1.3’s release and results.

[Stock Counsel @Stockcounsel]

@kimmonismus Hey @alexandr_wang - Why isn’t Muse Spark 1.3 in this table? What did they get on DeepSWE again?

[Stock Counsel @Stockcounsel]

@zephyr_z9 Have you considered that Astra isn’t that good?

[Stock Counsel @Stockcounsel]

$META is so under-valued: $SPCX is so over-valued

This isn’t even close, too. This is so obvious.

[Stock Counsel @Stockcounsel]

@ArtificialAnlys Now pretty obvious $META gonna win and all of META, including the digital ads monopoly, is valued at $1.5T on the open market when rumors that Anthropic and OpenAI want $2T valuations and SpaceX is also now close to $2T. Makes sense 🫡

[Stock Counsel @Stockcounsel]

@M1Astra Where’s Muse Spark 1.3? They beat Astra on DeepSWE, which is the benchmark coders actually care about, and Watermelon is imminent.

[Stock Counsel @Stockcounsel]

@Midnight_Captl Muse Spark 1.3 beats Astra on DeepSWE and Watermelon is coming up.

[Hamid @hamids]

Kind of incredible that $META's entire AI business, it's data centers, and all of its potential, combined, probably has a market cap of $0, because you can barely justify Meta's core business market cap, which generates ~$80 Billion of annual profits, to have a market cap of just $1.6 Trillion (a PE of 20!).

So right now, investing in Meta means you get Meta's Datacenter and AI investments for close to Free!

And unlike $SPCX, OpenAI and Anthropic, Meta is investing in its AI business using it's own profits with 0 dilution to its shareholders. The other big 3 have to keep issuing and selling new shares to pay for their investments.

Do I have it wrong here?

[Stock Counsel @Stockcounsel]

@finkd Congrats! Please consider pleasing the market with a good earnings beat. Maybe zero the reality labs losses or rent some compute short-term. This will enable you to raise more long term.

[AlphaSense @AlphaSenseInc]

$NVDA CEO Jensen Huang says the unconstrained demand number would be a lot higher, following 100% year-over-year growth this year, but they need to work hard to secure more capacity through their supply chain. Half the picture is hyperscalers, who now have backlogs of $2 trillion, while the other half is ACIE, enterprises, NeoClouds, and sovereign AI, which is largely invisible since they need entire factory platforms rather than individual chips. He notes revenue per gigawatt went from about $18 billion for Hopper to $25 billion for Grace Blackwell to about $40 billion for Vera Rubin, with productivity increasing by X factors each generation, driving customers to race to the next generation as fast as possible.

"The unconstrained would be a lot higher. We grew 100% year-over-year this year. The unconstrained is significant. And so we're just going to have to go work hard to get more capacity. And we have a large supply chain. We have a really gigantic supply chain. And, so we have incredible partners and we've secured a lot of supply, but we just need a lot more to break it down.

The way to think about that is most people see just hyperscalers, and that's half of the picture. The other half of the picture is what we call ACIE. And that's all the enterprise, the Neo clouds, the sovereign AIs.

That part of the world is invisible to everybody. And the reason for that is because they don't buy custom chips, they don't buy chips one at a time. They really need an entire factory platform built for them. And so that's a space that we add just a tremendous amount of value.

Now, of course, back in this hyperscale space, that's growing incredibly too. You know that they now have backlogs of $2 trillion. You know that when they stand up NVIDIA Compute when that happens, their revenues go up, their earnings contribution goes up. Compute is profitable, very profitable today. And compute directly translates into increased revenues. And so there's just a race to want to bring more NVIDIA Compute online, both at the hyperscalers. But

what you don't see is just really tremendous opportunities outside of the hyperscalers. But the other part of it is, and the reason why we mapped it out for you, in the case of Hopper, we were at about $18 billion per gigawatt. For Grace Blackwell, we're about $25 billion per gigawatt. And for Vera Rubin, it's about $40 billion per gigawatt. And the productivity is X factors increase in each generation. And so customers want to race to the next generation as fast as they can.

Meanwhile, because NVIDIA's compute is so productive, the tokens they're generating, the GPU hours they're renting out is insanely profitable. Their margins are fantastic. And so all of that is just simultaneously happening.

I think the big picture is that we're going through this platform shift and it affects every computer company and every industry in the world uses computers. So therefore every industry is affected, every company is affected. And this new way of doing computing is intelligent. It's not based on retrieval of files, but it's now generative AI, generating intelligence And that requires compute. But

the results you get are phenomenal. The results you get are tremendously better. And so, we're just seeing that across the world. Everybody wants to be part of the AI revolution. Everybody will have to be part of this computing shift and everybody has to build infrastructure."

[The American College of Pediatricians @ACPeds]

Our Pediatricians Condemn Massachusetts Law Expanding Abortion Until Birth.

“As pediatricians, we care for children at every stage of development, including babies born prematurely at the same gestational ages at which babies in Massachusetts may now be aborted.”

-Dr. Robin Pierucci, Board-Certified Pediatrician, Neonatologist, and ACPeds Board Member

[Bishop Robert Barron @BishopBarron]

I know I’ve been posting a lot recently, but as Fr. Richard John Neuhaus used to say, “it’s a target-rich environment” right now.

The governor of Massachusetts just signed into law a statute that permits abortion up until the moment of birth, as long as mother and doctor give the go-ahead.
Please understand what this means. A fully-formed child, moments before exiting the birth canal, can be eviscerated, chopped into pieces, have its head crushed or skin burned off—all under the full protection of Massachusetts law.

What I found particularly gross was the reaction of the entirely female crowd around the female governor of Massachusetts as she signed this barbaric provision into law. They were clapping and cackling with delight because what can only be called infanticide can now be practiced with impunity in their state.

I’m old enough to remember when Mario Cuomo, the devoutly Catholic governor of New York, admitted that, though he found abortion personally repugnant, he was, after tortured wrestling with his conscience, willing to give it limited protection of law.

How far we have fallen from agonized and conflicted Cuomo to the present governor of Massachusetts and her entourage gleefully applauding the murder of children.

[Alex Heath @alexeheath]

Over the weekend, @finkd called me via his Meta glasses while fishing to discuss the 6k+ word, pro-AI manifesto he published this morning.

He told me the immediate reason he decided to publish his philosophy now is that Meta believes it is “very close to having substantially stronger models,” and he wants people to understand his values before those models arrive.

Our convo here: https://t.co/LvDBRTgR1R

[Lumina @LuminaBench]

🚨Muse Spark 1.2 is disgustingly cheap:

Meta has two API versions, one where you share data one where you don't:

• Input: $0.10/M vs $1.25/M, 12.5× cheaper
• Cached input: $0.002/M vs $0.15/M, 75× cheaper
• Output: $0.20/M vs $4.25/M, over 21× cheaper

They genuinely give you the model for basically free if you let them train on you data.

Anyone going to try the contributor version out?

https://t.co/IqBWNzMq5t

[Bill Maher @billmaher]

I'm not voting for anyone who thinks the wrong side won the Cold War or cheers for the Intifada like it's the World Cup.