Tom @StocksMathPoker - Twitter Profile

14 minutes ago

-a few days ago, Polymarket posted that dems have 75% chance of sweeping -like 90% of comments were saying the numbers are wrong and republicans will win... -another large account posted during a race which had 2m votes vs 2.3m votes with 25% of total votes counted, CNBC counted it as 99% victory. He wote "how can it be 99% if only 25% of votes are counted" the amount of numerical illiteracy I've seen this week is insane -Jukan losing faith accurately represents the state of the markets -the reason I started w/ the above is to demonstrate probabilstic thinking vs win/lose thinkng -it's the basis of all gambling games, and why most people suck at them

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StocksMathPoker retweeted

Lee Kuan Yimby

@LeeKuanYimby

about 9 hours ago

I actually feel bad for Elon, even though I deeply disagree with him on some things. Imagine trying to build a car company in California in the mid-2000s, when American manufacturing is being completely offshored and almost all of Wall Street thinks you’re a joke and is rooting for your failure, while the entire oil and gas industry is using all their power and leverage to make you fail. But against all odds, you actually pull it off. You build cars that make electric vehicles desirable to millions of people, create an enormous number of quality American jobs, and force the global car industry to play catch up and move away from oil and gas. You would think California would be proud of you and the team. Instead you find yourself having to fight a completely corrupt and incompetent left government impeding all your efforts while you sleep at the factory night after night to avoid collapse. At some point, you would go to the right too. And because of your politics, it becomes a justification for people to celebrate your companies failing in their personal ideological fight with you. Even threats against you become something people explain away and use mental gymnastics to justify. Meanwhile, people like Scott Galloway and Bernie Sanders who have made absolutely nobody better off other than themselves get to lecture you about your value to society and even call for your murder without grounds from their vacation home while you're on 20 hour benders in your factories trying to get things built for all of society. If this were me I would lose my mind. Criticize his opinions. I do sometimes, especially on Ukraine. But the pleasure people take in wanting to destroy everything he’s built is hideous and frankly suicidal for the masses, especially coming from people who insist they care about workers, the climate, and civilization as a whole. As you try to make good things for society you are confronted with a world that worships people who care only about the perception of being good people, while they actually fight against your tangible efforts of making improvements for humanity. I don't think almost anyone would have made it out of that and if they did, they would probably not come away feeling so warm towards the left either. So I am rooting for Elon to succeed, and for humanity.

LeeKuanYimby's tweet photo. I actually feel bad for Elon, even though I deeply disagree with him on some things.

Imagine trying to build a car company in California in the mid-2000s, when American manufacturing is being completely offshored and almost all of Wall Street thinks you’re a joke and is rooting for your failure, while the entire oil and gas industry is using all their power and leverage to make you fail.

But against all odds, you actually pull it off. You build cars that make electric vehicles desirable to millions of people, create an enormous number of quality American jobs, and force the global car industry to play catch up and move away from oil and gas.

You would think California would be proud of you and the team. Instead you find yourself having to fight a completely corrupt and incompetent left government impeding all your efforts while you sleep at the factory night after night to avoid collapse. At some point, you would go to the right too.

And because of your politics, it becomes a justification for people to celebrate your companies failing in their personal ideological fight with you. Even threats against you become something people explain away and use mental gymnastics to justify.

Meanwhile, people like Scott Galloway and Bernie Sanders who have made absolutely nobody better off other than themselves get to lecture you about your value to society and even call for your murder without grounds from their vacation home while you're on 20 hour benders in your factories trying to get things built for all of society. If this were me I would lose my mind.

Criticize his opinions. I do sometimes, especially on Ukraine. But the pleasure people take in wanting to destroy everything he’s built is hideous and frankly suicidal for the masses, especially coming from people who insist they care about workers, the climate, and civilization as a whole.

As you try to make good things for society you are confronted with a world that worships people who care only about the perception of being good people, while they actually fight against your tangible efforts of making improvements for humanity.

I don't think almost anyone would have made it out of that and if they did, they would probably not come away feeling so warm towards the left either. So I am rooting for Elon to succeed, and for humanity.

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Tom

@StocksMathPoker

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