@MacrostratPB David, does it matter that the number on shelter was partially lifted by "a one-time adjustment to rent measures βafter last year's shutdown of the federal government prevented data collection in October."?
@rubenhassid This is awesome. πRe: about-me.md, what if I don't want AI learning my communication style cuz it is subpar? I don't want AI copying bad habits. How do I prompt for an aboutme file then without perpetuating bad practices? A substack on this would get huge views I think!
@onechancefreedm IMO, the clue for why this video doesn't make sense is in the video itself. The govt declares oil as strategic asset and has provisions to acquire for strategic reserves, just like the bitcoin language. We all can buy and trade oil in the markets. What am I missing?
@MacrostratPB Thank you for sharing. Is it out of discipline you are closing because it hit your stop levels or you think the fundamental premise you traded under has changed?
@MacrostratPB Not seeing any major tariffs passthroughs in the report yet, although some industrial metals seem to be sticky. Core refusing to rollover for 4th straight month if you don't consider the trade services/margins. Do you see that concerning?
@MacrostratPB When cross referencing with earnings from retailers, most retained consumer spend last Q, no? Way they skirted tariffs was to remove promotions (clear in hot PPI). So makes sense that PCE isn't too hot. Many warned though they didn't know the longer term tariff impact.
@MacrostratPB Bizarre. No reaction from the market given that most were expecting it to be hot. Are there nuances in the report that is keeping the market hesitant?
@WayneWhaley1136 Line #27 20250124 - I am assuming this is jan 24 2025. If so, it is showing a return for 1 year in your table, which would be jan 24 2026 π€. Am I missing sth?
@MacrostratPB Agree. IMO, one of the evidences other than the pointers you've mentioned in past - is that wage growth tracker remained timid while we had a hot PPI/inflation expectation reading. That means once the tariff driver triggers go away, hard to see inflation remaining stubborn.
@MacrostratPB Awesome article! Speaking of inflation and labor, wage growth tracker (with job switcher category overlaid) has been declining since the peak of inflation in 2022. Do you think as long as this graph is declining or holds here, one of the inflation triggers is subdued?
@MacrostratPB I can read the article but can't leave the comment. I seem to be the only one stuck in this situation based on the fact that there are comments there. I tried diff browsers, deleted cache, etc. Hasn't helped yet. Wondering what others do if they had similar experience.
@MacrostratPB Took the PPI data for Machinery and Equipment wholesaling and charted this with gpt's help. (Ignore the vertical lines). The pop from June to July is rather unusual.
@MacrostratPB Still trying to understand the impact. The machinery and equipment seem to be the biggest trade margin jumps, which in turn was the biggest contributor. These may be because of easing the discounting. So, unsure how sticky this is. Still has an impact on PCE I admit.