Ed Stoddard

Reader (Assoc. Prof) in International Security @portsmouthuni. Former Marie Curie Fellow @ScuolaSantAnna. Research focus on insurgency & non-Western COIN.

[Ed Stoddard @StoddardEd]

Thank you Arnauld! @ArnauldKASSOUI2

[Arnauld KASSOUIN @ArnauldKASSOUI2]

@azelin @StoddardEd Ed, congratulation !

[Vincent Foucher @VincentFoucher]

An exciting set of smart people to look into Islamic State fighting style in the Sahel and Lake Chad... and Open Access, too. Truly, it's Xmas.

[Aaron Y. Zelin @azelin]

Examining convergence and divergence in the fighting patterns of Islamic State-aligned jihadist groups in the wider Sahel - The Journal of Modern African Studies: https://t.co/DJao6QST8R

[Vincent Foucher @VincentFoucher]

Getting my mind blown away by a new primary source on #BokoHaram, the recent serialised memoirs by Sudanese jihadist Adnan Absi, translated and made available by Rob Ashlar on his Substack https://t.co/5BSc6oTRKJ. A thread.

[Julia Willemyns @jujulemons]

The UK commentariat will spend this week deluded about the Anthropic situation. “It’s just Trump.” “It’s a one-off.” “We can build our own.” “We don’t want or need crappy American AI anyway.” None of it holds up.

US has been using AI as a geopolitical lever since 2022. Chip controls, model weight restrictions, Chip Security Act embedding trackers directly into hardware, and now model restrictions. The direction of travel is clear.

The UK has four AI Growth Zones, two without delivery partners, and OpenAI paused its Stargate UK data centre in April. Powering a data centre here costs four times what it does in the US. It is illegal to build LLMs that could compete with Claude because we cannot train models in the UK under our copyright laws. The idea we will build our own infrastructure under business as usual is unrealistic.

We need to adopt. We need the productivity gains. Debt servicing costs are at historic highs, the tax burden is already at a 70-year peak, and the OBR’s long-run projections assume some productivity recovery. If professional services (the one sector generating real trade surplus) gets automated away by American AI while UK firms lag on adoption, the fiscal math becomes genuinely dire.

Under current trajectories, we will arrive late, dependent on foreign infrastructure, with no domestic capability and no leverage.

Nobody is taking this seriously enough and I’m feeling despondent.

[Ethan Mollick @emollick]

This is a key moment for modeling positive institutional change as a result of AI: CEOs who brag about how they are using it to expand, rather than just cut headcount; governments that work with AI systems to expand access to education or healthcare, etc.

People need examples!

[Vincent Foucher @VincentFoucher]

For a wonderful introduction to the #BokoHaram conflict, with lots of nuance and a thoughtful critique of many stereotypes, listen to this wonderful episode of the @NextierInsights with the brilliant @Sazedek https://t.co/eBWb71MyPy

[Ed Stoddard @StoddardEd]

@WerbCharlie Hi Charlie, hope all is well. Would you mind following me so I can send you a DM? Or you can DM me your email if that is better.

[Malik Samuel @Sazedek]

“By embedding itself within local communities through service delivery, economic regulation, and religious legitimacy, ISWAP transforms from a mere militant group into a parallel governing authority.” https://t.co/7ZugMz7P7R

[Malik Samuel @Sazedek]

Join us on 22 July for the launch of @GGA_org @GGA_Nigeria's new report on ISWAP’s resurgence, followed by a panel discussion, “Reckoning with Resurgence: Rethinking Responses to ISWAP’s Evolving Threat.”
Register here: https://t.co/4raQaru2Rh

[Malik Samuel @Sazedek]

.@alouibrahim92, adviser to Nigeria’s Chief of Defence Staff, joins @GGA_org @GGA_Nigeria panel: “Reckoning with Resurgence: Rethinking Responses to ISWAP’s Evolving Threat”. Don’t miss his strategic insight on 22 July at 11am WAT. Register here: https://t.co/4raQaru2Rh

[GGA @GGA_org]

How can we truly rethink our responses to ISWAP's evolving threat? Join Malik Samuel, an expert in conflict research and investigative journalism, as he moderates a crucial webinar designed to address this very question. Armed with qualifications in conflict, peace, and security, Samuel brings a depth of knowledge that promises to elevate the discourse.
Scan the QR code or click here to register: https://t.co/rSG4hXNb6B

[Celestin Delanga @CelestinDelanga]

I am pleased to present our article on the extortion system practised by ISWAP in Logone-et-Chari (Cameroon):
https://t.co/RzfraYkK9W

The article in question made the front page of Premium Times:
https://t.co/dR469UhVlT

[Mina Al-Lami @Minalami]

IS's Africa-based branches now account for nearly 90% of the group's global attack claims - up from around 70% last year

[GGA Nigeria 🇳🇬 @GGA_Nigeria]

ISWAP’s resurgence in Nigeria, therefore, cannot be viewed in isolation. Rather, it represents a worrying part of a broader trend of regional insurgency that increasingly challenges state authority across West Africa.

By @Sazedek × Ed Stoddard
https://t.co/JKLkVcQfKw

[Malik Samuel @Sazedek]

ISWAP’s resurgence in Nigeria, therefore, cannot be viewed in isolation. Rather, it represents a worrying part of a broader trend of regional insurgency that increasingly challenges state authority across West Africa.
⁦
Co-authored with @StoddardEd⁩ https://t.co/0EJButgmjF

[Ijasini Ijani @IjaniIjasini]

#ISWAP seems to be have a better intel than the #NA, the NA in the #NE Nig need to improve its security approach and working hand in hand with the locals to improve the security situation in most of the #FOB.

Cc:@HQNigerianArmy , the locals have prior inform of most of the strk

[Ijasini Ijani @IjaniIjasini]

Attacks on super camps is a red flag for the government to look into…it’s no more Guerrilla warfare

[Peccavi Consulting @PeccaviConsults]

1)Not having done an in depth look into the current #ISWAP offensive, it is clear its ongoing, sustained & capable. 3 key focuses
1) Harden all existing facilities & ensure they can survive being cut off for days & mutually support each other with fire & maybe supplies.

[Ijasini Ijani @IjaniIjasini]

Superb work by ⁦@UsmanAbbaZanna1⁩ on the recent #ISWAP tactics undermining counterterrorism efforts in the #LakeChad #Bravo https://t.co/RDhUJZ2FhB