Today's ECMWF weeklies are **roughly** how I'd expect the rest this winter to play out in general in/around N America (with or without a "major" stratospheric warming event).
Although many folks are fixated on the early January pattern change for cold/snow potential in the Eastern US, I wouldn't expect a consistently favorable pattern to actually show up & stick until about late January or so.
What is a "Potential Tropical Cyclone?"
It's a system that could become a tropical depression or tropical storm and brings hazardous conditions to land within the next 48 hours. NHC can issue its standard forecast products for these systems, including watches and warnings.
Tornado Watch # 688 has been issued for parts of south-central NE and northern KS until 10 pm CDT. A few tornadoes, hail (some to 2+ in) and damaging winds are possible. See https://t.co/QMmU4tCxt1 for more info.
Going above and beyond expectations, #Dora is now close to Category 5 intensity. While dvorak thickness requirements (0.5° for W embed.) might prevent an actual 7.0T fix for now, it is apparent that the storm has reached at least high-end Category 4 intensity now.
July into August is typically Beijing's wettest time of year.
Even then, they just picked up over twice their average July monthly rainfall in 24 hours. Thus, the massive flash #flood, there.
Tropical Depression #05E formed today, with ASCAT confirming 25-30 kt winds on its northern flank. TAFB fixed the system with T2.0/30 knots on subjective Dvorak. It is expected to become a hurricane within the next few days. #tropics
The Eagle Bluff fire in Washington and Canada started Saturday and quickly grew.
Fire growth over the weekend as seen by NOAA-20, NOAA-21, S-NPP VIIRS: https://t.co/dksfQUILeR
The National Weather Service Pueblo survey team has completed their damage survey of the tornado south of Granada in Prowers County from 6/23/23. Preliminary rating is EF3 at this time, and further analysis is needed to hone down estimated wind speed. #cowx
Stubborn dome of oppressive heat persists in the south-central U.S. Scattered severe storms capable of tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rain is possible in the Midwest and Upper Midwest. Locally heavy rain is also possible in the Northeast.