Julien - Investing Area

Gestion active depuis 2011
Domaine d'expertise : tech, semis, biotech
Actions et dérivés (options vanilles et hybrides)

[Julien - Investing Area @Strader255]

@Sovanna_Sek Bonjour Sovanna,
Beaucoup de "high flyers" dans cette liste.
Je ne remets pas en cause la qualité des sociétés ainsi que leur potentiel mais seulement leur cherté.

[Jordy Beuving @BeuvingJordy]

$TSM x $AMKR

[Julien - Investing Area @Strader255]

@damnang2 $ACLS is good also...

[Julien - Investing Area @Strader255]

@BorisZR @patientinvestor Great analysis Boris. "What we baught is the price and we receive the value". Ben Graham

[Julien - Investing Area @Strader255]

@Sovanna_Sek Peut-être ajouter $XFAB, ils sont entrain de construire une fonderie spécialisée photonique sur silicium...

[Julien - Investing Area @Strader255]

L'exposition gamma négative la plus importante est à 300 sur $AVGO :
Je partage avec vous un graphique que j'ai créé ainsi que la vue d'ensemble sur maturité de juin :

[Julien - Investing Area @Strader255]

@BeuvingJordy They could have rounded it up to €2000 😄

[Julien - Investing Area @Strader255]

Cela confirmerait ce que disait Jensen au sujet de $META en disant qu'elle est la société qui monétise le mieux l'IA.

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

$META is considering charging up to $199.99/month for Hatch, its planned consumer AI agent, per The Information.

Hatch is described as a consumer version of OpenClaw that can create software tools and automate tasks through plain-language prompts, including scheduling events, sending emails, building simple apps, and creating travel itineraries.

A premium Hatch Plus tier would offer 5-10x more daily capacity than the free version.

During development, Hatch has used Anthropic’s Claude models, but at launch it is expected to run on Meta’s Muse Spark model.

[Julien - Investing Area @Strader255]

Ceci étant dit, actuellement les investisseurs sur $AVGO paient le titre en valorisant une croissance hypothétique induite de la montée en puissance des puces IA.
Comme disait M. Graham, ils paient le prix mais en échange ils recoivent la valeur...

[Julien - Investing Area @Strader255]

Je reviens sur $AVGO :
il y avait un bon gap entre MP et prix actuel.
Résultats exceptionnels mais pas paraboliques.
Ce à dire que les MM étaient en embuscade et chassent la moindre faiblesse. Je ne m'aventurerais pas dans ce raisonnement.
A vous de vous faire une idée...

[Julien - Investing Area @Strader255]

$AVGO, un peu acheter la rumeur et vendre la nouvelle.
Merci Hedgie !

[Hedgie @HedgieMarkets]

🦔Broadcom beat revenue estimates ($22.19B vs $22.13B expected), beat earnings ($2.44 vs $2.39), and posted 143% AI chip revenue growth. The stock dropped 13% after hours anyway. AI chip sales guidance for next quarter came in at $16 billion, below the $17.2 billion Wall Street expected.
The stock had added $300 billion in valuation over the previous five sessions. But on the earnings call, Broadcom CEO Hock Tan was asked whether he sees productivity gains from AI agents. His answer was no.

My Take
Hock Tan sells the chips that power AI infrastructure and he just told an earnings call full of analysts that the productivity gains from AI agents haven't shown up. IBM's CEO said this week the revenue to justify $6 to $8 trillion in AI capex probably doesn't exist. Now Broadcom's CEO says the productivity those investments are supposed to unlock hasn't materialized either. Two shovel sellers in the same week, both profiting from the boom, neither able to defend the end product.

Broadcom gained $300 billion in five trading days and lost $63 billion in one evening on an earnings beat. Revenue up 48%, strong margins, solid free cash flow. But the AI chip guidance missed by $1.2 billion and Tan admitted the technology his chips power hasn't moved the needle on productivity. At some point the distance between what these companies are valued at and what AI is delivering in the real economy has to close. Either the productivity arrives or the valuations adjust. This week has offered a lot of evidence for one of those and very little for the other.

Hedgie🤗

[Julien - Investing Area @Strader255]

Je partage totalement l'avis de Sérénité au sujet de $XFAB.
Il faut juste être patient, fermer la console et revenir dans 5 ans...😁

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Tbh $XFAB lowkey reminds me of early $TSEM.

Just sub <$2B MC.

You basically never find a company with $NVDA and $NOK actively validating your pre-commercial silicon photonics foundry… (photonixFAB)

While getting CHIPS act/Gov grants to subsidize capex.

While leading the Europe’s effort to build a photonics supply chain.

Feels like that alone would justify valuations… but you get the power semi SiC/GaN operations for free too and all its assets.

CHIPS act 2 is coming out tomorrow, and $XFAB is listed in the photonics blueprints.

Did I miss something?

Or did markets miss something?

[Julien - Investing Area @Strader255]

@Xcalibur1523 @aleabitoreddit With IB

[Julien - Investing Area @Strader255]

Des arguments intéressants sur $XFAB !
Longtemps assimilé à un titre en corrélation étroite avec l'EV.
J'attends 2027 afin de voir si l'adoption de la photonique aura un impact sur le titre.
Est-ce $NVDA fera sortir le titre de l'ornière ?

[HENNY @hennycapital]

$XFAB (photonics + power semis) is an interesting long at ~€1.5B market cap.

EU Chips Act 2.0 drops this week. Photonics is the centrepiece. $XFAB was on the steering committee that wrote the white paper demanding it.

Why this matters:

Mass-producing photonic components for Nvidia’s optical products under “photonixFAB”
800V DC power semi exposure through SiC partnerships

$128M euros from EU Chips Act 1. $50M from US Chips Act

~1.3x P/B — depressed by auto legacy drag, not business quality

Government is essentially funding their capex

Markets missed the Nvidia silicon photonics relationship because it operates under a different name.

[Julien - Investing Area @Strader255]

Great graph !

[Lin @Speculator_io]

Jensen literally told you where to invest.

This is his 5-Layer AI Cake:

Layer 1: Energy
$BE $GEV $PWR $AMPX $VICR $VST $NVTS $BWXT $CEG $UEC $CCJ

Layer 2: Chips
$NVDA $TSM $INTC $AVGO $AMD $ASML $ARM $MRVL $AAOI $AXTI $COHR $MU $SNDK $STX $OPTX $LITE $ICHR $AEHR $WDC

Layer 3: Infrastructure
$NBIS $IREN $CRWV $APLD $VRT $DELL $HPE $ORCL

Layer 4: Models
$GOOGL $META $AMZN $TSLA

Layer 5: Applications
$NOW $PLTR $DOCN $SNOW $NET $FSLY $INOD

[Julien - Investing Area @Strader255]

Dans la même discipline avec un ratio plus soutenable que $MRVL on trouve $AVGO qui se négocie à un PE de 43.
Même thématique, exposition à l'IA similaire mais valorisation différente.

[Julien - Investing Area @Strader255]

Avec un PE de 161 sur $MRVL, les investisseurs s'attendent à quoi au juste ?
Une croissance hors norme peut-être ?
Malheureusement on sait comment tout cela se finit tot ou tard ...

[Julien - Investing Area @Strader255]

@Sovanna_Sek Semi $AVGO
Réseaux sociaux $META
Mobilité $UBER ou $GOOG
Mais c'est moins original ...😂

[Julien - Investing Area @Strader255]

$CEG dans l'oeil du cyclone ?

[Julien - Investing Area @Strader255]

Analyse de $XFAB par Sérénité à lire :

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Just some mobile shower thoughts around $XFAB and train of thought:

1. 800vdc $NVDA push look for GaN/SiC players / power semis.

2. $NVTS and other fabless/fab-lite beneficiaries of $NVDA push probably use foundry models

3. care more about Western supply chains over Asia, want to build up Western capabilities + Western premiums.

4 China has a lot of capacity, maybe risk into 2028, but again it’s building up Western supply chains

5. XFAB only high volume SiC foundry in America (others like $ON or Infineon are vertically integrated)

6. advanced 6in SiC, 8in GaN on Si, building out 8in GaN

7. Maybe likely they’re developing 8in SiC from CHIPS backing, just not public material

8. check SiC revenue -> 152% Y/Y growth okay. Probably something markets missed, since blended looks worse from automotive slump, that should come out recovery

9. $NVTS and others turns out to use $XFAB. $POWI cites $XFAB in filings, among others.

10. both are $NVDA power semi explicit partners, great exposure indicator to 800vdc power semi players.

11. US Dpt. of commerce cites $XFAB as only high volume SiC foundry in the US, $50M PMT

12. validation from US Gov about critical component in supply chains is amazing

13. EU CHIPS Act gives $XFAB $128M EU, for foundry (MEMS, AI, etc), okay turns out they’re critical MEMS player

14. So that’s validation from EU gov about critical component in supply chains, dual continent subsidies

15. So now we know $XFAB is a critical MEMS foundry so you get SiC capabilities, GaN development, and MEMS upside

16. they also got $47.6M EU funding for leading Silicon Photonics supply chain in EU. So that’s EU funding on multiple angles.

17. Turns out, I know all the players there from smartphotonics from $GFS deck.

18. $NVDA and $NOK are qualifying them for silicon photonics HVM. I think this is just a government backing angle for success in EU photonics so likely to succeed… kinda like how Us gov encourages everyone to use $INTC.

19. Okay chips act 2 is coming out next week… so they’ll probably get funding there or more revenue commitments

20. 1.28 p/b, now that’s probably just book cost? Likely coming out of $SOI type legacy drag cycle.

21. Did some modeling around actually replacement values, true replacement p/b cost likely ~.5/.7.

22. Getting business for free, while having upside from SiC near term into Silicon Photonics / GaN as main growth past H2 2027.

Thoughts: derisked by p/b values + replacement value. maybe like 20% downside from macro.

However, critical dual continent importance. So downside risk seems low, but upside is compelling.

Lot of capex likely backstopped by upcoming chips act catalyst + national security concerns.

Maybe 2.5-4x rerating seems possible/likely.

Not a 10-20x, but recovery from depressed valuations from silicon photonics upside with SiC / GaN bridge.

TLDR: likely trading lower than replacement value, dual continent subsidies likely subsidize capex.

Gov grants shows importance to Western supply chains, photonics longer term upside, SiC/GaN demand likely near term upside and bridge.

Don’t control any recent volatility, should shake out anyone not really confident in the thesis though.

CHIPS act 2 from EU is coming up, $XFAB was listed in earlier blueprints for optical ecosystem, so should get a boost after that comes out as near term event catalysts.

So now is the risk reward seems compelling, we’ll see if this is right or not