I trade weekly breakouts ๐
Posting real trades and ideas โthe good, the bad, and the ugly. No BS, no signals, and no ego. Just a public journal to stay sharp and keep learning.
The only way to make big strides in your trading performance is via a quantifiable adjustment of your statistical trading behavior.
It's perfectly normal to experience losing weeks, months, or even quarters. The key is to remember that trading is a long-term endeavor. The 'holy grail' everyone seeks begins with shifting focus from just solely studying charts to also analyzing your trading statistics. This is the only way to identify and fine-tune your issues on a law of large number perspective.
Your good and bad trading behavior can't escape your journal if you are diligent with this process. Some things you can start identifying;
1. That 1-3 days duration (MoM) that you are 'hyper' actively executing new position, what is the spot of the market index? what was the previous 10 days trend at breadth level? Are the outcome desirable? If not, that's a major area you could fixed immediately.
2. Track your longest consecutive losing streaks every month. My average is around 11 to 13 (yes 13 straight losses, it's normal for me). There was a standout recent month in 2023 where the number was 25 (That's +200% more than my usual proficiency), and I was able to correct the issue immediately the following month (back down to 11) from such end of month review. What the journal told me was my losing streak largely stern from 13 new trades in 3 days when $SPY was already extended from 10 and 20-MA spot, which all got stopped out within a 2 days period from a minor pullback. That 'chasing' behavior was largely because I just came out of a losing month when most are profitable (i knew because my ranking dropped out of top 10 in USIC period while those within my placing +gain% in performance).
3. Work on reducing your average R loss, and track the progress MoM. You need to accept that outcome of a trade cannot be controlled, but you can absolutely control your risk. A reduced average R loss is another method to push your up your monthly profit factor. If you size your risk via R-concept approach, the conventional understanding is stop loss is equivalent to 1R loss. Be creative, you can reduce this number easily via scaling down size in unprofitable trades even before it hit the eventual stop. In my experience, my best trade are often the ones that never re-visit your entry-stop range, it will just go and give your a tidy profit by day #1 market close.
4. Track the progress of your monthly Profit Factor (I use R factor so Avg R Gain / Avg R Loss). Improvement stern from this number. Don't be satisfied with catching 1 big winning trade, that is not trading proficiency. If I were to hire, I will hire someone not making money but with PF improvement for 6 consecutive months. It is just a matter of time he becomes a money printing machine.
5. Your monthly Max R loss (maximum $ loss also). Go study it and find out the reason why you lose more than you expected. It is a good reminder not to let such behavior repeat again because these are potential account blow up behavior. My max R loss was -8.4 in a single trade 7 years ago. It was an execution prior to earnings with a perfect setup that seemingly meant for a gap up, I was wrong but i never allow myself to be in that spot again. My last 5 years max R loss is only at -2.45 on an unannounced earnings guidance (warning), unavoidable.
Breaking down and studying your trading journal is really necessary. If you are not doing the above 5, which imho are the most impactful to your performance and proficiency growth as a trader, you can only blame yourself if you don't make it.
Fighting the FOMO today. $BE, $IREN, $ONDS, $LEU, $GGLL โ so many options. Tomorrow might be a tricky day, though, better find something else to do for now...
Trimmed some $SNDK and $APH ahead of Earnings and built a small position on $ZSL just to get the blood pumping.
@j_intradaytrade You can combine both things...use intraday (5min and 30 min for me) for better RR entries, aligned with daily and weekly setups, and manage the trade through those higher time frames to ride a bigger move
Damn, this $USAR is still giving me nightmares ๐, entered on 01.20 to get stopped out for a tick on the next day. Wasn't around to reenter and missed that 70% move that came next๐ซ ...shit happens, will be ready when it sets up again
Here's my 10 picks for the day, although I see a lot more interesting setups cooking. Hoping to see a big move in $SMH stocks with some big earnings coming up.
Watchlist | 01.28
$CIFR $LUNR $ONDS $LEU $GEV $TSLA $GGLL $NXT $BE $CSIQ
@ohiain What's your entry point for U&R setups? Been seeing a lot of these lately, usually try to enter at the break of a range on the 30 min chart or VWAP reclaim
Are we finally breaking out on the $QQQ?
Big day ahead tomorrow with FOMC rate decision and some big tech earnings. Keeping an eye on $TSLA, which seems to be forming a weekly Cup & Handle.
Been on $PL since Dec 3, added to my position yesterday using the 30 min chart. 4 touches on support and trendline break. 10% move today and almost 140% since the first buy. Already trimmed and moved stop to breakeven. Free ride now...