Strude

Professional overthinker of sports outcomes
🏉 NRL Best Bets: 9-4
🤑 Profit: +4.18
@Celtics | @dolphinsnrl

[Strude @StrudeHQ]

Good example here of why CLV (closing line value) matters.

Took Dolphins -4.5 yesterday and it’s now sitting at -6.5. That’s a clean 2 point move in our favour before kickoff.

Nothing’s guaranteed obviously, but beating the closing line like that is where the long term edge comes from. If you’re consistently getting better numbers than the market closes at, results take care of themselves over time.

Also sorry for the essay but will be restarting out betting record here as the others haven’t been properly posted. I’ll let you know what’s a bot play and what’s a degen me bet from here on

[Strude @StrudeHQ]

Early play: Dolphins -4.5 (1u)

Love this number at Suncorp. Anything under the 6 grabs my attention, and if team lists land clean, this could easily steam out before kickoff.

Just touching on why I’ve made this bet- REAL long term winners aren’t the guys picking the winning team, they are the ones beating CLV (closing line value)

There’s is quite literally zero value by the time you’re picking any teams so most resort to try scorers

We buy low here preparing for team lists to drop, watch line movement then I will be personally looking at adding another 0.5U to this

Fuck gambling, we’re trying to win

That’s it.

We'll see where this line closes.

[Strude @StrudeHQ]

@1WeakGuttedDog @centralNRL That’s some rough shit dude

[Strude @StrudeHQ]

@buddy_lov3 I’m scared for what you did on the last try scoring play . . .

[Strude @StrudeHQ]

@dolphinsnrl Banngggg

[Strude @StrudeHQ]

@1WeakGuttedDog Just make sure you share it on TL please yeah!

Cheers boss

[Strude @StrudeHQ]

@1WeakGuttedDog @centralNRL Fucking hell, do they just become super ‘lose’ or weak after a few dislocations?

[Strude @StrudeHQ]

@afjfanfn @LeagueScenePod Lol fair enough

[Strude @StrudeHQ]

@1WeakGuttedDog Has fucked me up on many try scorers as he just doesn't pass

[Strude @StrudeHQ]

@1WeakGuttedDog Trust me brother, you don’t want to see my resulted bets right now

Bad beat after bad beat then put the house on Strange to score . . .

Fuck it, phins beat the wahs so I can rub it in everyone’s faces over here 🙂

[Strude @StrudeHQ]

@Clavicular0 And kiss men lmao

[Strude @StrudeHQ]

Well fellas if we don’t think the rigging and bullshit officiating isn’t coming to the sport we love

I hope we all just witnessed that.

[Strude @StrudeHQ]

@TeddyCJD I have Strange as well 🙃

[Strude @StrudeHQ]

@s1amuuu @thenotorious617 They may as well retire his jersey now 🤣

[Strude @StrudeHQ]

@theWilldabeasts @buddy_lov3 Ah mate it’s unbearable

Nothing has been as bad as the first few calls here

If Strange’s try isn’t a try then that cunt who put one down with the tip of his finger shouldn’t be either and don’t get me started about Tamale’s catch out of bounds

[Strude @StrudeHQ]

@LeagueScenePod Cunt just can’t catch

Feel for him but what do you expect, rookie winger against someone who has been getting over the line 58% of the time and is tricky in the air

[Strude @StrudeHQ]

@buddy_lov3 Let’s have a night 🤝

[Strude @StrudeHQ]

@TeddyCJD I get the feeling this is one of those games the Dragons actually come to play footy

But I think we’ve all said that before too lol

[Strude @StrudeHQ]

If this was on @bet365 this would’ve just been paid

@betcha_nz thank you for keeping me in profit over the years though, appreciate it 🤣🖕

[Strude @StrudeHQ]

Made Thai bet live 3 minutes before he gets subbed and not even voided

Scammy cunts @betcha_nz

Worst thing to happen to New Zealand and never seen betting pushed as hard as it is currently because they have a complete monopoly on it

You can have this donation as I’ll be taking it right back in about 30 minutes 🖕