Stuart Rothenberg

Fantasy baseball manager who does political handicapping in spare time. @Colby, @UConn. Taught Poli Sci @Bucknell. Rothenberg Political Report.

[MeidasTouch @MeidasTouch]

NEWS: Zach Lahn has defeated Trump-endorsed Randy Feenstra in Iowa’s Republican primary for governor, Decision Desk HQ projects, delivering a major upset in the race to succeed outgoing Gov. Kim Reynolds. Lahn will now face Democratic nominee Rob Sand in November.

[Brian Stelter @brianstelter]

Scott Pelley tells the NYT: "The collapse of values at the top has become untenable. The leadership of ‘60 Minutes’ is no longer recognizable. The principles I hold dear are gone." https://t.co/GOB29Bv0Qb

[Henry Olsen @henryolsenEPPC]

2.2 million votes have reported in CA Gov race and its very likely Xavier Becerra will be in the final two. He leads and, more importantly, is trouncing Tom Steyer almost everywhere. Steyer would need an incredible turnaround with late arriving ballots to overcome this.

[Stuart Rothenberg @StuPolitics]

It ‘s a toss-up/tilting GOP. This Senate seat is very much in play. Paxton is in serious trouble.

[Larry Sabato @LarrySabato]

Texas just threw away 24 years of Senate seniority. The other 49 states say, Thank you, Texas!

[Stuart Rothenberg @StuPolitics]

Ditto.

[David Doak @SouthPoint1000]

I'm not saying Talarico will win, but the analysis from Talking heads that basically say Texas will never go for Democrats is sooooo ill informed. Nothing is the same, just the ICE abuse alone will have a huge impact, Paxton is an awful candidate, Trump historically unpopular.

[Stuart Rothenberg @StuPolitics]

Cornyn’s chances tonight range from slim to none.

[Stuart Rothenberg @StuPolitics]

You are correct, CoolBlue.

[CoolBlue71 @CoolBlue71]

@IAPolls2022 Alaska is not “Likely Republican”.

It is a Tossup.

[David Weigel @daveweigel]

Very good news for Democrats. Duggan was losing support and, in some polls, starting to take more from Rs. But he was going to take some votes in Detroit, where James has never had much appeal and Dems need to run up score.

[Andrew Desiderio @AndrewDesiderio]

News — Nearly 2-hour meeting with Acting AG Todd Blanche and Senate Republicans was incredibly hostile, per multiple attendees.

As many as 25 GOP senators spoke (this is very rare for these meetings), all in opposition to weaponization fund.

R’s pitched specific ideas such as dictating how the 5 commissioners are chosen & not allowing people convicted of violence against cops to be eligible for a payout.

[Niles Francis @NilesGApol]

This whole John Cornyn pity party in the Senate GOP has been genuinely hilarious to watch lol. Literally all you guys had to do was vote to block the guy from ever running for president again when you had the chance

[Jake Sherman @JakeSherman]

I had to read this to make sure it was real. It is real.

[Stuart Rothenberg @StuPolitics]

Susan is still clueless.

[Andrew Desiderio @AndrewDesiderio]

Susan Collins says she “doesn’t understand” Trump’s decision to back Paxton, who she called “ethically challenged.”

[Stuart Rothenberg @StuPolitics]

Not surprising to me. I’ve thought both houses have been in play for months.

[The Political HQ @ThePoliticalHQ]

For the first time, I truly believe Democrats have a shot at winning both the House and Senate in 2026.

The GOP is imploding, and Trump continues to pour gasoline on the fire.

[Stuart Rothenberg @StuPolitics]

Correct.

[Chuck Todd @chucktodd]

Trump’s endorsement of Paxton should put to rest the fantasy Trump cares about the GOP as a whole. What he cares more about is building a party that’s loyal to him, not building or sustaining a party that can win. There’s a HUGE difference which is why he regularly endorses the more flawed candidate as they’ll always be more loyal.

[Jake Sherman @JakeSherman]

BREAKING -- TRUMP ENDORSES KEN PAXTON IN TEXAS SENATE RACE

[Stuart Rothenberg @StuPolitics]

Certainly possible. But not a done deal yet. Trump’s numbers are so bad that the Senate is in play.

[TexasFan_05 @Texasfan_05]

@StuPolitics Hey Stuart can the Dems flip the senate as well as the house?

[Stuart Rothenberg @StuPolitics]

What a slide by Volpe. He has been terrific recently.

[MLB @MLB]

Anthony Volpe avoided the tag with an amazing slide 🤯

[Stuart Rothenberg @StuPolitics]

Wow. Just wow.

[InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022]

2026 Generic Ballot by NYT/Siena (A+)

🟦 Democrats: 50% (+2)
🟥 Republicans: 39% (-4)
---
🔵 Registered voters: D+11
🔵 Almost certain/very likely: D+14
——
• White: GOP 50-42%
• Black: Dem 81-9%
• Hispanic: Dem 54-24%
---
• Indie: Dem 51-33%
---
• Ages 18-29: Dem 62-26%
• Ages 30-44: Dem 51-35%
• Ages 45-64: GOP 47-44%
• Ages 65+: Dem 48-45%
---
• B.A. degree: Dem 57-34%
• No B.A. degree: Dem 46-43%
---
• White college: Dem 53-41%
• White no college: GOP 56-35%
• Non-White college: Dem 66-18%
• Non-White no college: Dem 63-23%
---
• Men: GOP 47-41%
• Women: Dem 58-33%
---
• Midwest: Dem 49-41%
• North-East: Dem 59-29%
• South: GOP 47-43%
• West: Dem 53-35%
---
• Trump 2024 voters: GOP 86-8%
• Harris 2024 voters: Dem 86-8%
• Did not vote in 2024: Dem 55-24%
—
D48/R42 | 5/11-14 | 1,507 RV
https://t.co/cvoTW8qBNy

[Stuart Rothenberg @StuPolitics]

David Bednar drives me crazy. The Yankees need a dependable closer.

[Stuart Rothenberg @StuPolitics]

Spectacular.

[Underdog MLB @UnderdogMLB]

Cam Schlittler through 10 starts this season:

60 IP
68 K (2nd in AL)
1.35 ERA (1st)
0.78 WHIP (1st)
.168 BAA (1st)
6.18 K/BB (2nd)

Only Yankee in franchise history with sub-1.40 ERA and 65+ K through first 10 games of a season.