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Here's a comprehensive breakdown of Macy's $M 's Q1 2026 report β strengths, weaknesses, and stock catalysts:
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π Macy's Q1 2026: In-Depth Analysis
β STRENGTHS β Bullish Catalysts
1. Revenue & Comparable Sales β Beating Expectations
Total net sales: $4.7B, up +1.8% YoY (despite ~$40M headwind from closed stores)
Comparable sales: +3.0% β strongest Q1 in 4 years, 5th consecutive beat
Go-forward comp sales: +3.1% β the core, investable business is clearly accelerating
2. Bloomingdale's is a Standout
Comparable sales +10.2% β 7 consecutive quarters of growth, record Q1 sales
This luxury segment commands higher margins and stronger pricing power β a hidden gem inside M
3. Bluemercury Momentum
Comparable sales +6.4% β a high-margin beauty brand in structural growth mode
4. EPS Upside
GAAP diluted EPS: $0.23 vs. $0.13 prior year (+77% YoY) π₯
Adjusted EPS: $0.13 vs. $0.11 β above guidance
Full-year Adjusted EPS guidance raised to $2.00β$2.20 (from $1.90β$2.10)
5. Guidance Raised Across the Board
| Metric | New FY2026 Guidance | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| Net Sales | $21.5Bβ$21.75B | $21.4Bβ$21.65B |
| Comp Sales | +0.5% to +1.2% | -0.5% to +0.5% |
| Adj. EPS | $2.00β$2.20 | $1.90β$2.10 |
6. Strong Balance Sheet & Shareholder Returns
Cash: $1.3B + $2.0B undrawn credit facility
No material debt maturities until 2030 β zero near-term refinancing risk
$50M buyback + $50M dividend in Q1 alone
$1.1B remaining buyback authorization β continued EPS accretion
7. Credit Card Revenue Surging
Credit revenues up +11.7% to $172M β strong consumer credit health, a high-margin stream
8. Technical Setup
Above both 50-day and 200-day SMA β
RSI at 63.3 β bullish but not yet overbought
Only -0.11% from 52-week high β price is at a breakout zone
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β οΈ WEAKNESSES β Risk Factors
1. Gross Margin Pressure
Gross margin: 38.9%, down 30 bps YoY
Entirely attributable to tariff impact (30 bps); excluding tariffs, margins were flat
But tariff risk is not going away β H1 guidance assumes heavier tariff burden
2. Adjusted EBITDA Margin Contracting
Q1 Adj. EBITDA: $290M (5.9%) vs. $304M (6.3%) in Q1 2025
Despite revenue growth, EBITDA dollars and margin both declined β SG&A investments are eating into operating leverage
3. SG&A Creeping Up
SG&A: $2.0B, up $39M YoY β ongoing spending on Reimagine 200, digital, and luxury build-out
As a % of revenue: flat at 39.9%, but absolute cost inflation limits near-term margin expansion
4. Macro & Inventory Risk
Inventories up +3.6% YoY β management says it's "well-positioned," but in a consumer slowdown this could turn into a markdown headwind
Full-year guidance explicitly flags macro/geopolitical uncertainty on discretionary spend
5. TTM Revenue Still in Decline
TTM revenue: $22.6B, down -1.7% YoY β the store closure drag is real and will continue weighing on reported top-line
Net margin TTM: just 2.8% β razor thin for a $5.2B market cap retailer
6. Low Quick Ratio
Quick ratio: 0.28 β very tight liquidity excluding inventory; typical for retail but warrants monitoring
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π Key Stock Price Catalysts to Watch
| Catalyst | Why It Matters |
|---|---|
| Bloomingdale's & Bluemercury rerating | Luxury/beauty multiples >> department store multiples; spin-off speculation remains a value unlock |
| Buyback acceleration | $1.1B remaining on $2.0B auth; at current $5.2B market cap that's ~21% of float |
| Tariff resolution | Every 30 bps of margin recovery = ~$65M+ in gross profit |
| Comp sales sustaining above 2% | Proves the "Bold New Chapter" is structural, not cyclical |
| Real estate monetization | Hidden asset value in owned properties |
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π Bottom Line
M is executing better than it has in years. The top-line narrative is inflecting positively, Bloomingdale's is a genuine growth engine, and the balance sheet is clean. The key vulnerability is margin compression from tariffs and SG&A investment β which means the bull case depends on cost discipline and tariff relief in H2 2026.
At $21.67 with a P/E near ~9x forward earnings ($2.10 midpoint), the valuation remains deeply discounted to the S&P β suggesting the market hasn't fully priced in the turnaround yet.
Good job! careful as many funds report their positions /1000 sometimes, and that can ruin your math or silently generate flaws in the data. Also sometimes a company CUSIP will change, you would see that the fund closed a position (untrue). Also careful with stock splits/reverse splits, they will mess the data...
A very few of the nightmares I had when I coded my platform. Fun to have though!
@SJosephBurns@grok Thought this would be of interest to you Steve. We aggregate all 8.5K+ institutions as they come. Also, this is where $MU for example stands.
https://t.co/wDhUuC5Lbq
Some of the healthcare stocks with the heaviest institutional loading based on total share increases, $ flows, $ flow relative to the market cap (from all filers)
$TENX $NKTR $DRUG $ALXO $ SABS $ WAT $AVTX
Full list on the website for every sector or industry
ICAHN Q4 2025 13F BREAKDOWN β $8.55B portfolio, 12 positions
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PORTFOLIO CONCENTRATION
77.4% Energy.
Top 3 holdings ($IEP + $CVI + $UAN) = 82.7% of the book
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MAJOR MOVES
INCREASED (2)
$CVI +1.1% (added 783K shares) β doubling down on his own refiner. Now 28% of portfolio. $2.4B position.
$SD +0.7% (added 36K shares) β small but consistent accumulation in SandRidge Energy
DECREASED (1)
$SATS -58.1% (cut 1.95M shares) β massive trim on EchoStar. Was a merger arb play after the DISH deal fell through. Icahn is walking away.
CLOSED (1)
$SWX GONE β exited Southwest Gas Holdings entirely. The activist campaign there ran its course. He got what he wanted, he's out.
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THE THEMES
ENERGY CONSOLIDATION β $CVI, $UAN, $SD all held or added. Icahn is leaning harder into energy as a macro theme heading into 2025.
ACTIVIST EXITS β $SWX closed, $SATS slashed.
FORTRESS CORE β $IFF, $AEP, $JBLU, $CTRI, $CZR, $BLCO all unchanged. He's not rotating β he's holding and waiting.
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BOTTOM LINE
Icahn cleaned house on two activist plays ($SWX, $SATS) and poured the proceeds back into energy. Pure conviction positioning. 77% energy exposure is a bold macro call.
PERSHING SQUARE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. - TOP 10 HOLDINGS
New position in $MSFT , Increased position in AMZN
Q: 2026-03-31
via https://t.co/23nEFgCJhU