Subu. Trade

Data-driven trader. Trading large trends, key themes, & smaller opportunities in between. The future is NEVER just like the past.

[Subu. Trade @SubuTradess]

Market breadth jumped. For the first time in 4 months, the S&P 500's McClellan Oscillator is above 50 We've seen 11 similar cases before, and 10 of those 11 saw $SPX higher a month later. Average gain +3.2%

[Subu. Trade @SubuTradess]

$SPY

Put Volume spiked on Friday. Previous spikes came close to marking bottoms for the S&P 500. Will this time be different?

[Subu. Trade @SubuTradess]

NASDAQ up 12 days in a row! This is historic momentum, and was bullish for both the NASDAQ and $SPX

$QQQ

$SPY

[Subu. Trade @SubuTradess]

Large Speculators are RECORD net-long Bitcoin. This breaks the previous record from September 2023, before Bitcoin rallied.

$BTC

[Subu. Trade @SubuTradess]

Large Speculators are extremely net-long Bitcoin. Such extreme positioning was last seen in 2023, before Bitcoin rallied.

[Subu. Trade @SubuTradess]

S&P 500 is up 6 days in a row, with a total gain of +6.9% This only happened 9 other times, and $SPX was consistently higher 6-12 months later. Average maximum drawdown in the next year was 9.3%

[Subu. Trade @SubuTradess]

Energy sector

$XLE

Short Interest is at the highest level since 2008. Energy stocks are being squeezed higher

[Subu. Trade @SubuTradess]

$GLD

(gold ETF) is Down 9 days in a row. It has never gone Down 10 days in a row before.

[Subu. Trade @SubuTradess]

$SPY

volume today jumped to the highest since last November's bottom. Are we getting closer to capitulation?

[Subu. Trade @SubuTradess]

From the AAII Sentiment Survey: Cash Allocations is at 14.19%. Investors are holding the least cash in 4 years. This happened 3 times in the past 20 years: late-2017, Jan 2020, late-2021. Each case preceded significant market volatility and losses for $SPX

[Subu. Trade @SubuTradess]

From the COT Report: Asset Managers dumped a record amount of S&P 500 futures this week Even more than during the COVID crash

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

Total Put Volume & Put/Call Ratio spiked yesterday.

Prior spikes marked bottoms for $SPX

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

31% of NASDAQ 100 stocks are now oversold (RSI below 30), the most since April 2025's crash.

Software stocks led the way down.

Can they bounce and lead the way back up?

$QQQ $IGV

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

Capitulation in Bitcoin $BTC? Yesterday saw:

- record Put Volume in Bitcoin etf $IBIT
- record volume (shares traded) in $IBIT
- Bitcoin sentiment at a 3 year low

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

Bitcoin $BTC Daily Sentiment is at a 3 year low

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

Software stocks collapsed and Defensives soared.

Many traders are betting on Software to bounce and Defensives to pullback.

Software etf $IGV Call volume hit a new record high today, while Consumer Staples etf $XLP Put volume soared

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

Another Hindenburg Omen signal triggered today.

This is the 3rd Hindenburg Omen in the past 2 weeks.

We're starting to get a cluster of signals... 🚨

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

Bitcoin is in a bear market, and its weekly RSI is extremely oversold (below 30)

Bitcoin was this oversold only 4 times before.

In every instance, Bitcoin was higher 4 days later, with an average gain of +16%

$BTC

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

Bitcoin is getting crushed.

Bitcoin's RSI is below 21, the most oversold since 2023.

Similar oversold conditions saw Bitcoin rally 9 out of 10 times the next day. Median gain was +3.3%

$BTC

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

Highlighting how unusual yesterday's breadth was:

The NASDAQ 100 fell -1.7% yesterday, but more NASDAQ stocks went Up than Down!

This mega tech selloff only happened 4 times before, and each instance was followed by more losses in the next 2 months.

Small sample size, but something to think about. H/t @CyclesFan