Michael Sullivan

Bitcoiner | Engineer | Writer

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

I once thought that my obsession with Bitcoin was my most autistic trait.

But now that I'm using data and AI compute to better understand the emotions/moods of humans I realize I may have transcended into a higher level of autism then I'd previously thought possible.

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

@DomokunNakamoto Likewise, people are quite mad but I think it serves as a great reminder of what we are doing here 🤝

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

Bitcoin FUD feels convincing right now for one simple reason:

The market is angry.

Like, historically angry.

And angry crowds overweight risks and mistake emotional certainty for clear thinking... which makes all the certainty around the 4-year cycle especially interesting.

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

@WalkerAmerica Somebody should study this with data and autism 👀

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

@KKeim6 It's surprising how much I'm seeing people just fighting each other on the timeline right now.

I remain incredibly bullish/optimistic and reject being too heavily influenced by public sentiment.

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

@thepowerfulHRV I feel similarly.

I post a disproportionate amount about treasury companies because I think they are incredibly interesting (and continue to) but I'm a Bitcoiner first and foremost.

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

@sealarkbtc Dude. I'm going to have to do a narrative analysis on each one of these phrases 😂

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

@ajorgenseburner @_Checkmatey_ Well now I'm for sure going to have to do a narrative analysis of the phrase "Bitcoin is dead" 😂

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

@JM_speakss The fear fuels me, I only stack harder and get more optimistic.

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

@OdiousDebt It's exactly that "manipulated" mindset that comes up more often when we are angry about price action IMO.

It certainly hurts watching AI stocks rip right now since so many of us are technology bulls, but I'm as bullish on the orange coin as ever.

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

@SatoshiNagonna This is a great way to think about it, people have been complaining about low vol... well, maybe the vol isn't going to be as low as it was once thought to be.

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

Bitcoin may not be going parabolic... but the terrified DMs sure as hell are.

Bullish.

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

@valerijatrades1 Oh dang, I didn't realize I just had my chart upside down 🙃

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

@rodpalmerhodl 👀😅

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

@PlanetPsyop River has one of the best UIs, big fan!

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

@mitchdmoore That's the unique psychological element here, FOMO is strong!

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

@mitchdmoore Yes.

And lots of "what the hell is happening bro?!?"

The conspiracies/irrationality rise with anger and fear.

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

@ableinch @Peterlane1985 Bookmarked.

That's brilliant!!

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

@RagnaBTC The fact you feel that way is the whole story.

Fundamentals are wildly disconnected from price right now, the actual risk level of Saylor getting liquidated is miniscule, but the mood/fear/frustration exacerbate how high we think those odds are.

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

Fantastic thread by Julian about the current state of Bitcoin sentiment (with yours truly being featured).

We're in a fascinating place when it comes to the emotional state of the market... but you have a choice.

Do you choose to view this as a problem or an opportunity?

[Julian Figueroa @kinetic_finance]

I have been in Bitcoin for 10 years.

I have NEVER seen sentiment this bad, on all fronts.

Not 2015, not 2018, not the 2022 collapse.

Something is broken this time, and I think I found out why through 9 charts... 📉

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

It's a good theory, but I specifically filter out the cohort by real individuals. The way I do things are quite different from the fear and greed index, every single user in my system is selected intentionally.

So there's no bots. There's no fear-mongering accounts. There are no aggregator accounts.

To your point though, these things can influence all of us.

But the data you're seeing in that chart there is directly from plebs in the Bitcoin ecosystem, that are much angry or in the language they choose to speak to each other with.