Eero

Investing in real estate, stocks and BTC.

Professional at coaching military stuff.

Random thoughts on philosophy and money.

[Eero @SummanPoika]

@OjavuoTimo36020 Lennokki maksaa noin 500 dollaria. Jos muutaman kilon ampuu volframia siihen, muuttuu se huonoksi sijoitukseksi. Ja päälle laitekustannukset + ajoittain tuhoutuva järjestelmä itsessään. Halpojen lennokkien torjunta on ärsyttävä ongelma.

[Eero @SummanPoika]

@Alexsei88 Pitänee myydä positiota pois että saadaan jäljellä oleville vähän bull liikettä!

[Eero @SummanPoika]

@PToveri Amerikkalainen paperi lennokkien käytöstä kulutussodankäynnissä Ukrainassa: https://t.co/Z2CbfFEwKw

Suosittelen tutustumaan.

[Eero @SummanPoika]

@saylor Please stop posting this AI crap. Makes you and the whole BTC scene look cheap and laughable.

[Eero @SummanPoika]

@Petteri_Mommo @HenriVanhanen olla kolmen viikon jaksossa 14 vuorokautta sotaharjoituksessa, eikö ylityökorvauksia tai tasoitusvapaita ole tiedossa. Kuten kirjoituksenkin pointti on, jaksaminen on se ongelma eikä raha. Jo valmiiksi reissussa ollut vanhempi on väsynyt kun saa sen kaksi vuorokautta perheen kans

[Eero @SummanPoika]

@Petteri_Mommo @HenriVanhanen Esimerkki: 5vrk sotaharjoitus, 16h töitä päivässä ja 5-6h unet. Korvaus: SH-korvaus 140€ ja päiväraha 55€.
"Avokätinen" korvaus tuntipalkkana laskettuna 140€-(16h-8h)=17€/h.
Teet siis ylitöitä l��hes samalla liksalla mitä tuntipalkka.
Tuntimerkinnän ollessa 8h, saatat

[Eero @SummanPoika]

@JukkaLepikko Tässä taisi kyse olla volatiliteetista. Mutta mitä bollingereita katsoin, aika kaukana ollaan mistään pohjista...

[EQ Resources Limited @EQResourcesASX]

📢 EQR presenting tomorrow | Small Caps Tungsten ’26 Online Conference

The event will bring together investors, analysts and industry participants for a focused discussion on tungsten — Small Caps' top commodity pick for 2026!

🔗 Register: https://t.co/IkslAonR8K

#EQResources #EQR #Tungsten #CriticalMinerals #SmallCaps #ASXNews #MiningNews #StrategicMetals

[Eero @SummanPoika]

@NoLimitGains Unfollowed, cryptic shit taped in veil of negativity. But hey, scaring people and spreading pessimistic views sells, as we see from your follower count.

There is a clear reason for the rise of Micron, taking a price chart and comparing it to dotcom times is quite cheap. Im out!

[Eero @SummanPoika]

@Alexsei88 Kova alkupöhinä IPOsta, peruskauraa buumiosakkeissa. Tässä vaiheessa hinta ei varmaankaan heijastele mitään realiteetteja vaan psykologiaa yms.

[Alexsei @Alexsei88]

Sijoittajat haluavat kuulla että Almonty ja EQ Resources saisivat toimitussopimuksia USA:n hallinnon kanssa.

Ei US-hallinnon tarvitse tehdä mitään sopimuksia, US-yritykset on jo tehnyt ne tarvittavat offtake-sopimukset näiden yhtiöiden kanssa.

#Tungsten $ALM $EQR.AX

[Eero @SummanPoika]

@WClemente #DYOR

[Eero @SummanPoika]

@WClemente Hi Will, strongly recommend looking into $EQR, an australian tungsten mining company with two operating mines in Australia and Spain. $EQR is one of the biggest western producers operating right this very moment, unlike many that have big theoretical reserves but not operating.

[Euroz Hartleys @EurozHartleys]

Euroz Hartleys James McClements & Michael Scantlebury recently visited EQ Resources Limited's Mt Carbine tungsten mine in North Queensland.

With spot tungsten prices (~US$2,800-3,280/mtu), EQR on our numbers is generating annualised free cash flow of ~A$500m from the JunQ forward.

Thank you to the @EQResourcesASX team for hosting our Euroz Hartleys representatives on site.

#Mining #Resources #Tungsten #ASX

[Ehrmantraut Capital @EhrmantrautCap_]

$EQR.AX - an insight in my estimates for FY2027 and FY2028

These are my assumptions for FY2027 and FY2028. I have made my assumptions a bit on the conservative side, I don't like to be overly optimistic. Here are my estimates for the coming 2 fiscal years for EQ Resources:

FY2027 assumptions:
Average tungsten price: $3,500/mtu
Annual production: 325,000 mtu
Payability ratio of 75%
Break-even price at $500/mtu
AUD/USD ratio of 0.70

FY2027 revenue = $3,500 * 0.75 * (1 / 0.70) * 325,000 = 1,218,750,000 AUD revenue.

FY2027 earnings = 1,218,750,000 - (500 / 0.70) * 325,000 = 986,607,143 AUD earnings

FY2028 assumptions:
Average tungsten price: $4,000/mtu
Annual production: 340,000 mtu
Payability ratio of 75%
Break-even price at $500/mtu
AUD/USD ratio of 0.70

FY2028 revenue = $4,000 * 0.75 * (1 / 0.70) * 340,000 = 1,457,142,857 AUD revenue

FY2028 earnings = 1,457,142,857 - (500 / 0.70) * 340,000 = 1,214,285,714 AUD earnings

It should be clear by now that the potential in $EQR.AX is still enormous despite the rally it's already had. The current market cap is 1.62bn AUD, so $EQR.AX could make well over its entire market cap in the upcoming 2 fiscal years. Note that reality may vary significantly from my assumptions, that goes both ways.

We could be looking at a significantly higher average tungsten price for FY2027 and FY2028 if the current situation remains the same, with demand from defense, AI, memory, etc. remaining high and the tungsten supply remaining constrained.

As dire as the current tungsten shortage already looks, there is a good chance the demand/supply asymmetry is even bigger, 1 year forward. I consider $5,000/mtu to be a real possibility 1 year forward, but for now I will stick to these rather conservative assumptions.

One bad scenario would ofcourse be China easing its tungsten export controls. But given the geopolitical situation, I consider that to be very unlikely. Another headwind could be bad weather conditions from time to time, but I believe I have accounted for that by reducing the annual production (in mtu).

In the table below, an overview can be seen.

[Eero @SummanPoika]

@ShowerCapAM @Alexsei88 Q1 = 1.1.2026-31.3.2026?

[Eero @SummanPoika]

... strengthened critical mineral supply chains for the United States and U.S. allies, including:

"LOI exploring up to $700 million to help finance tungsten development in Kazakhstan"
#tungsten

[Eero @SummanPoika]

https://t.co/NoZy46TbXw
Under the Trump administration, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation has invested in and is exploring more than a billion dollars in new mineral exploration deals and ...

[Sakari Puisto @SakariPuisto]

Allekirjoitin Suomen liittymisen mukaan tekoälyä, puolijohteita ja kriittisten mineraalien toimitusketjuja turvaavaan Pax Silica -aloitteeseen.

Pax Silica kokoaa yhteen alan johtavia teknologiamaita.

Kova juttu ja suomalaisyrityksille paljon bisnesmahdollisuuksia! 💪

[Alex @Alex__0x0]

The Convergence of Three Supercycles: Why the AI Revolution is a Tungsten Revolution.

A few months ago, I began sounding the alarm on the Tungsten Supercycle. I thout it is just a war metal

But as I dug deeper into the architecture of 2nm chips, Silicon Photonics, and Liquid Immersion Cooling, I realized I hadn't just caught one supercycle. I caught three. And they are all powered by the same heavy, gray metal.

We are witnessing a Convergent Supercycle. Here is how these three worlds have officially collided in April 2026:

1. The Semiconductor Wall (The 2nm Reality)

We are currently at the "Physical Limit" of silicon. As TSMC and Samsung push into 2nm and 1.8A nodes for the next generation of AI GPUs, standard copper wiring is failing. At these microscopic scales, copper "electromigrates"—it literally moves and melts under the heat.

The Tungsten Fix: Tungsten is the only material with a melting point (3,410°C) and atomic stability high enough to serve as the vertical interconnects (Vias) for 3D-stacked AI chips. No Tungsten = No 2nm AI.

2. The Photonics "Bridge"

Silicon Photonics is the holy grail of 2026—using light instead of electricity to move data at near-instant speeds. But light signals must be "translated" into electrical signals at the chip level.

The Tungsten Interface: Leading-edge research (April 2026) shows that Tungsten Silicide and Tungsten Oxyselenide are the "translators." They allow for near-lossless phase modulation, making optical computing a physical reality rather than a lab experiment.

3. The Liquid Cooling Bottleneck

As AI racks push toward 1000W+ per GPU, air cooling is dead. We have entered the era of Direct-to-Chip Liquid Cooling. But there’s a problem: pure copper cold plates expand much faster than the silicon chips they cool, leading to "warpage" and cracked $40,000 GPUs.

The "Thermal Match": The industry has pivoted to Copper-Tungsten (CuW) Alloys. Because Tungsten’s thermal expansion matches silicon almost perfectly, it acts as a "stabilizer," allowing these massive liquid-cooled systems to run at full throttle without shattering the hardware.

When I look at companies like Tungsten West $TUN, or $EQR.AX, I don’t see "mining companies." I see the unfiltered infrastructure of the AI age.

While the retail market is chasing the software "froth," the real asymmetric opportunity is in the physical bottlenecks. * Defense needs it for shells.

Big Tech needs it for 2nm chips.

Data Centers need it for photonics and cooling.

This isn't just a trend; it's a structural deficit. With China tightening export controls on "dual-use" tungsten this month, the Western supply chain has officially become a strategic chokepoint.

I’m not just watching a "War Metal" anymore. I’m watching the birth of the Tungsten-AI Era.

#Tungsten #AI #SiliconPhotonics #LiquidCooling #Semiconductors #QuantumPortfolio #AsymmetricBets #InvestmentStrategy #2nm #TechInfrastructure #MarketAnalysis2026