SupipiJ

Views are my own and do not necessarily represent any organisation associated including those of my employer.

[Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape]

Why is Trump suddenly launching major escalation in Hormuz?

Not just diplomatic frustration with Iran

US is losing power and authority, with alliances breaking down globally:
—Gulf states
— European “allies”
— Asian “allies”

My new analysis at substack Escalation Trap

[Bloomberg @business]

Iranians formed human chains at power plants and key infrastructure sites Tuesday following threats from President Donald Trump to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by midnight or face civilizational destruction https://t.co/8U45QxeU8L

[Shehbaz Sharif @CMShehbaz]

Diplomatic efforts for peaceful settlement of the ongoing war in the Middle East are progressing steadily, strongly and powerfully with the potential to lead to substantive results in near future. To allow diplomacy to run its course, I earnestly request President Trump to extend the deadline for two weeks. Pakistan, in all sincerity, requests the Iranian brothers to open Strait of Hormuz for a corresponding period of two weeks as a goodwill gesture. We also urge all warring parties to observe a ceasefire everywhere for two weeks to allow diplomacy to achieve conclusive termination of war, in the interest of long-term peace and stability in the region.

@realDonaldTrump
@JDVance
@SecRubio
@SteveWitkoff
@SEPeaceMissions
@drpezeshkian
@mb_ghalibaf
@araghchi

[Kaivan Shroff @KaivanShroff]

9 years ago.

@HillaryClinton warned us:

“This is not someone who should ever have the nuclear codes – because it’s not hard to imagine Donald Trump leading us into a war just because somebody got under his very thin skin.”

[Francis Fukuyama @FukuyamaFrancis]

The World Simply Does Not Trust America https://t.co/Knuq01Hy8p

[Francis Fukuyama @FukuyamaFrancis]

Resisting the Third Wave of Democratic Backsliding https://t.co/1TZtmbpxll

[Margaret Brennan @margbrennan]

The Iran war so far has cost $12B according to White House's Kevin Hassett. While the war may go for additional weeks, he says the administration has what it needs.

[Face The Nation @FaceTheNation]

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says the regime is not in a war of survival, telling @margbrennan the regime is “stable and strong enough.”

“We don’t see any reason why we should talk with Americans, because we were talking with them when they decided to attack us, and that was for the second time,” Araghchi says.

[Collingwood 🇬🇧 @admcollingwood]

For all the squeals about rearming, who proposes a proper plan? Look at the chart below. We need more shipyard capacity, for refits, maintenance, and building more vessels. That means training and employment. It means more steel. And so on and so forth. Where's the serious plan? There is none. Occasionally, we have spasms of "We must spend more!" and then nothing is done and it goes quiet for a while until the next war breaks out.

This is an excellent example of what I mean when I say Britain has degenerated. It is really quite frightening. We can't think beyond our knee jerk reactions to current events. In this case, it's "We need a bigger armed forces!" Yes, but first we need to think of what our national interests are and what our strategic aims should be. Then we can consider force structure. Then what we need regarding national capacity to get from there to here. And then where we are going to find the money for that. But instead, we just have periodic round of "We need a bigger military" cries.

[SupipiJ @SupipiJ2]

@admcollingwood There is a role Israel plays in all of this. How could first part realistically happen when they dont want Trump and Iran negotiating a deal?

[Craig Murray @CraigMurrayOrg]

There is nothing whatsoever preventing the BBC, the Guardian or Sky News from doing what Courtney is doing so well (and I was doing) and reporting from Lebanon.
Instead they always report only from the Israeli side of the conflict.
Why?

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🚨🇦🇪🇺🇸 Prominent UAE billionaire Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor just published an open letter to Trump. It's brutal.

"Who gave you the authority to drag our region into a war with Iran? Who gave you permission to turn our region into a battlefield?"

Al Habtoor's a major figure: billionaire, former diplomat, outspoken political voice in the Gulf. When he talks, UAE leadership's listening.

His questions:

* Was this your decision or Netanyahu's pressure?
* Did you calculate collateral damage before firing?
* You placed GCC countries at the heart of danger they didn't choose
* Your "Board of Peace" initiatives were funded by Gulf states. Now we're getting attacked. Where did that money go?
* You promised no wars. You've conducted operations in 7 countries: Somalia, Iraq, Yemen, Nigeria, Syria, Iran, Venezuela
* 658 airstrikes in your first year back = Biden's entire term (which you criticized)
* War costs $40-65 billion for operations, possibly $210 billion total
* Your approval rating's down 9% in 400 days
* Americans were promised peace. They're getting war funded by their taxes

The sharpest line: "Before the ink has dried on your Board of Peace initiative, we find ourselves facing military escalation that endangers the entire region. So where did those initiatives go?"

Al Habtoor's not some random critic. He's establishment. Connected. When UAE elites start publicly questioning Trump's decision-making, that's America's closest Arab allies saying "we didn't sign up for this."

The letter ends: "True leadership is not measured by war decisions, but by wisdom, respect for others, and pushing toward achieving peace."

@KhalafAlHabtoor

[Ai Business Journal @ArchieIntel]

REPORTER: Trump warns Iran to make peace or face consequences.

IRAN FM: "We signed a deal. The US withdrew. We were negotiating, then attacked.

Defending sovereignty isn’t aggression.

If this escalation isn’t condemned, what’s left of international law?"

[Brian Allen @allenanalysis]

🚨 BREAKING: Rep. Ted Lieu says the full Epstein files contain information that Donald Trump RAPED minors.

So he started a war to distract us from his crimes.

Never stop speaking about Epstein.

[RussiaNews 🇷🇺 @mog_russEN]

🚨⚡ President vladimir Putin drops the truth bomb:

“Iran fulfilled the deal. The U.S. tore it up.
Trump walked away—yet Europe demanded Iran stay loyal.

Why the hell should Iran comply with a deal the West abandoned?”

[Anonymous @YourAnonCentral]

Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez on Iran:

“Remember that one can be against a hateful regime, as is the case with the Iranian regime … and at the same time be against an unjustified, dangerous military intervention outside of international law.”

[Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand]

This is immensely telling of U.S. capabilities: they're not capable of defending their allies - countries in which they have dozens of military bases for that very purpose - against a mid-level power, in the region in which they've concentrated a huge percentage of their military assets.

And the fact a Saudi official is saying this - and on Al Jazeera (a Qatari media) - makes it all the more significant.

[Francis Fukuyama @FukuyamaFrancis]

Francis Fukuyama on Trump’s War With Iran https://t.co/T9RDHKtXFn

[Al Mayadeen English @MayadeenEnglish]

At the UN, Iran accuses the US and "Israel" of deliberate aggression and seeking to expand the conflict, demanding accountability and reparations.
https://t.co/IX6uJeMYlI

[SupipiJ @SupipiJ2]

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