Com

Internet OG: no-hype takes on tech, AI, finance, investing, RE & economics. Proud dad of 2. Personal opinions & research. Not financial advice. #FinTwit

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The US fiscal situation is much worse than that of other major economies:

The US federal budget deficit stands at -6.0% of GDP, the largest among all G7 nations.

The budget gap is also more than TWICE as big as the G7 average of -3.0%.

By comparison, France and the UK are running deficits at -5.0% of GDP.

By 2028, the US deficit is expected to widen to -7.5% of GDP, near the highest since 2021.

At the same time, Italy and Canada are projected to run deficits at -2.0% of GDP over the same period.

The UK, France, Germany, and Japan are all expected to hold deficits below -5.0%.

The US is on an unsustainable fiscal path.

[Com @SurfCityCom]

@capitalistexp Currently rolling with 43% of all dollars in existence printed within the last 8 years, this has to be taken into context. Bubble yes, but monetary expansion can't be overlooked.

[Com @SurfCityCom]

@metacvrse @EricSpracklen For inflation protection. Buy assets and hold for 30 years, the government debasing our currency hurts you in every way but makes the debt small, and equity build.

2 generations from now the deal you have will look like the boomers does to you. This was all caused by fiat.

[Com @SurfCityCom]

@Barchart Housing prices remain high, even as rates rise. Today's FED minutes tell us they're considering raising rates to fight sticky inflation. I don't know how housing prices can hold at these higher rate valuations.

[Com @SurfCityCom]

@Hedgeye Not enough data to say it's the highest in history. There were several periods in America where private credit defaults were much worse. 2 years of data isn't enough to say anything is highest in history.

[Com @SurfCityCom]

Fed’s Barkin on oil shock: “We can look through it… for now.” Translation: Gas at the pump is crushing wallets but don’t worry, the experts will ignore it until it’s embedded in everything. Classic central bank cope.

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

🇺🇸 U.S. gas prices hit a new cycle high of $4.56

[Com @SurfCityCom]

Kevin Warsh sworn in tomorrow as Fed Chair. The guy who called out endless QE and debt monetization gets the hot seat. Pray he actually fights the inflation fire instead of fanning it like the last crew.

[Com @SurfCityCom]

More Treasury supply hitting today amid rising long yields and deficit worries, investors demanding higher returns to hold this inflating paper. Free market's sending the bill for Washington's binge. Sound money folks knew this script by heart. 🧾📉

[Com @SurfCityCom]

10-year real yields pushing up as markets price in stickier inflation and endless deficits. The bond vigilantes are back, politely reminding politicians that free lunch economics has a price tag, and it’s rising.

[Com @SurfCityCom]

High IQ isn't just book smarts - it's generosity + long-game vision. Fresh Swedish data on 1.2M people proves it: smarter folks donate more, vote more, cooperate more because they *get* the societal ROI.

But high-trust, high-IQ societies flooding themselves with low-trust, low-IQ masses in large numbers? That's civilizational suicide - eroding the exact traits that built the place.

Same edge that spots dollar debasement early and hedges with real assets. Short-term thinkers get wrecked.
Study: Elinder/Erixson 2025

[Hitchslap @Hitchslap1]

High IQ people are more generous and prosocial.

They’re more cooperative because they can better perceive long-term societal benefits.

[Com @SurfCityCom]

Japan's 10y10y forward rate spiking "off the grid" is the bond market's polite way of saying "we're not buying your long-term fiscal fairy tale anymore." 10y JGBs ~2.8%, 30y over 4% (multi-decade highs), debt/GDP still north of 230%. After decades of BOJ magic, the curve is steepening hard. Classic vigilante signal.

[Com @SurfCityCom]

30yr mortgages just slammed 6.75%, highest since July '25.

Why? Because 30yr Treasury yields spiked to 5.2% today, highest since 2007, as Washington’s deficit binge meets reality.

Fed money printer can’t hide the bill forever. Housing dream officially torched by government overspending and dollar debasement.

😂 Stack sound money, folks.

[Com @SurfCityCom]

30 year yield at 5.2 percent highest since 2007 as inflation fears from energy shock hit. Government borrowing costs skyrocketing while they keep spending like drunks. This is not transitory. It is the bill for decades of free lunch economics. Hold sound money. 😂

[Com @SurfCityCom]

Remember MMT saying Japan proves governments can rack up endless debt with zero yield pain? 10Y JGB now 2.81% (30-year high). Robin Brooks called it: Where MMT goes to die. Yen weak, inflation biting. As rising JGB yields unwind the yen carry trade, it pressures US Treasury demand and drives up borrowing costs for the US government. Theory meets market.

[Com @SurfCityCom]

Kentucky just primary’d out one of the last scrupled men in Congress. Thomas Massie brought unwavering values, forced Epstein file disclosures, killed blank-check foreign aid, voted NO on the Iran war, and demanded AIPAC register as a foreign agent. The House lost a true patriot who never wavered, stood against the crowd for what was right. Who replaces that spine? RIP fiscal sanity.

[Com @SurfCityCom]

@EricJBott Our endless bureaucracies that inhibit building any new and much needed resources is going to hurt us and all future generations. We need energy production, oil refineries, desalinization plants, metal and rare earth mines. We are genuinely shooting ourselves in both feet.

[Com @SurfCityCom]

@KobeissiLetter MMT in its near final form.

[Com @SurfCityCom]

@best_clips__ Need to add some music for a effect. "When the pigs try to get at you, drop it likes it's hot"

[Com @SurfCityCom]

30yr Treasury yields just smashed 2007 highs at 5.18%. Markets finally pricing in DC’s endless deficits and printing press party. Housing investors: your mortgage and acquisition financing just got way more expensive. Higher rates = cooling demand + expanding cap rates. Cash buyers win. 🏠💸

[Com @SurfCityCom]

Treasury auctioning more bills today like it's Black Friday at the dollar store. $ billions more debt rolled at yields that scream "we need buyers." Print more, promise less value, classic Fed playbook. Who’s shocked? Not me. 🤦