Surf

Funded trader - This is my board to save interesting tweets. Perhaps you find it interesting as well.

[NoLimit @NoLimitGains]

Do you realize how INSANE this is?

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

The VIX sits at 15 while everyone is fully invested. Now look at the seasonal map: volatility bottoms in July, then climbs relentlessly into an October peak. Twenty years of data, same rhythm.

Cheap insurance and a calendar that says the storm season starts now.

Nobody buys umbrellas in the sunshine. That's why they're cheap.

H/t @Mr_Derivatives

[OddStats @OddStats]

Have a nice weekend, everyone!

Just kidding, check this out first.

▪ SPX closed within 1% of its all time highest point
▪ VIX was under 15 mid day
▪ 10y yields are within 15bps of one-year highs

And when else has that happened, since 2002?

That last dot is today.

[Data Driven Stocks @stockdatamarket]

What the VIX did today... The last time it moved like this was June 4, 2026. So either we just witnessed the first regime change in 156 weeks, or next week brings something nobody sees coming. As always

[Guilherme Tavares @i3_invest]

It's mostly about money flow and liquidity.

[Surf @Surfmelow]

@QuantifiedStrat Since the strategy doesn’t have an SL, what is the exit rule? Thanks

[BraVoCycles Newsletter @BraVoCycles]

$SPX Futures - Cycle Analysis

Three dominant cycles call for an $ES downturn.

Cycles caught the last several market turns. Will cycles nail it again?

[Adam Oliensis @Adamocomic]

@ThierryBorgeat Did my best to line these up. SPX top pane. Put/Call Skew i bottom pane.
Red verticals are the beginning of each year.
Yellow verticals are P/C Skew collapses.
Green verticals are P/C Skew spikes.
Spikes are associated with bottoms.
Collapses are associated with tops.

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

The S&P put/call skew just collapsed to 0.71. Not a low. The lowest reading on record.

The 10-year average is 12. The 2020 panic peaked at 34. We're at 0.71.

What this measures: how much investors pay to protect against a crash versus betting on a rally. At 0.71, crash protection is essentially free. Nobody wants it.

Think about what that means. After two years of gains, at record concentration, with households at record equity exposure, the options market has priced hedging like insurance on a house that cannot burn.

History's lesson is consistent: markets don't crash when everyone fears a crash. Fear is the hedge. This chart says the hedge is gone.

Nobody buys insurance at the top.

That's what makes it the top?

[Data Driven Stocks @stockdatamarket]

How to make free money in stock market, or give away your money to the house

[Surf @Surfmelow]

@stockdatamarket This is good stuff!

[Data Driven Stocks @stockdatamarket]

There is no seasonality in the stock market. On average, these moves can be either positive or negative. However, the range can sometimes be enormous. For example, in October, returns have ranged from -20.5% to +11.6%, making small average biases of 0.5% or 1% statistically meaningless.

[Henrik Zeberg @HenrikZeberg]

According to the "Zeberg-Salomon Protocol" - today is the day you rotate out of SP500 and into Long-duration US Government Bonds.

Not saying this is the TOP (it is not!) in SP500 - but rates are about to come down - and hence Bonds to rally.

Following the Protocol since 1975 would have out-performed the SP500 by 6X.

Stay tuned!

[Guilherme Tavares @i3_invest]

Yes, the main trend remains bullish for equities, but this chart is a friendly reminder that we are also in one of the most overvalued markets in history.

[Guilherme Tavares @i3_invest]

Retail mania is back to extreme speculative mode!

The financial volume spread between **high beta sectors** 3x leverage etfs (3x long etfs - 3x inverse etfs) is back to "all in" mode.

** Semis, Nasdaq 100 and Tech sector

[BraVoCycles Newsletter @BraVoCycles]

NASDAQ 100 - Dominant Cycles

3 dominant $NDX cycles do not look good for longs in July.

[Surf @Surfmelow]

@Bluekurtic Midterm years looks a bit weaker though. Lets see how it plays out!

[Tracy Alloway @tracyalloway]

Hyperscaler free cashflow projections via Charlie McElligott at Nomura: